Euro: Do or die for Sweden against Austria

Scotland clinch qualification if Norway and Georgia draw.

In Group F, Sweden and Austria play a key match. Austria can 99.8% clinch qualification if they win, while the group is much more open if Sweden win. A draw likely means Austria will take the spot (96%).

Italy host Ukraine where the winner likely (>90%) will take the other spot after England. A good result for Italy would also be beneficial for Wales as they then avoid Italy in a playoff.

The wide-open Group I also has interesting matches tonight as detailed below.

Group F

Sweden vs Austria (28%)	Home Win (50%)	Draw (23%)	Away Win (27%)
Sweden	38%	6%	< 1%
Austria	73%	95.7%	99.80%

Group C

Italy vs Ukraine (9.8%)	Home Win (68%)	Draw (18%)	Away Win (14%)
Ukraine	56%	71%	90%
Italy	93%	84%	72%
Wales	58%	53%	46%

Group I

Romania vs Kosovo (9.5%)	Home Win (60%)	Draw (21%)	Away Win (19%)
Romania	61%	42%	30%
Kosovo	< 1%	1.4%	9%
Israel	53%	66%	69%

Group I

Israel vs Belarus (4.8%)	Home Win (72%)	Draw (16%)	Away Win (11%)
Romania	46%	61%	69%
Israel	64%	50%	41%
Belarus	< 1%	< 1%	2.5%

 

 Group A

	Probabilities			Point					GD
Country	At least Playoff	At least Second	Group Winner	Min	25%	Average	75%	Max	Average
Spain	100%	99.01%	59%	6	18	18.8	21	21	19.5
Scotland	100%	99.16%	41%	15	17	18.5	20	24	9.6
Norway	90%	1.5%	< 1%	4	8	10.1	11	16	-1.1
Georgia	100%	< 1%	< 1%	4	7	9	10	16	-8.2
Cyprus	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	0	0	1.1	2	12	-19.7

Scotland clinch Euro 24 if Norway draw against Georgia (21%)

Group C

	Probabilities			Point					GD
Country	At least Playoff	At least Second	Group Winner	Min	25%	Average	75%	Max	Average
England	>99.99%	99.88%	90%	13	19	19.6	22	22	20.4
Italy	100%	66%	9%	4	13	14.7	16	19	9.6
Ukraine	99.71%	34%	1.1%	7	13	13.8	16	19	1.5
North Macedonia	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	4	6	7.3	8	16	-11.9
Malta	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	0	0	1.2	3	10	-19.6

 Group F

	Probabilities			Point					GD
Country	At least Playoff	At least Second	Group Winner	Min	25%	Average	75%	Max	Average
Belgium	100%	99.32%	86%	10	19	20.2	22	22	17.3
Austria	99.98%	80%	13%	10	14	16	17	22	6.7
Sweden	20%	20%	< 1%	6	12	12.8	15	18	6.9
Estonia	94%	< 1%	< 1%	1	2	4	5	13	-15.1
Azerbaijan	22%	< 1%	< 1%	1	2	3.4	5	13	-15.8

 Group I

	Probabilities			Point					GD
Country	At least Playoff	At least Second	Group Winner	Min	25%	Average	75%	Max	Average
Switzerland	100%	99.03%	92%	11	22	23.5	26	26	21.5
Romania	51%	51%	5%	9	16	17.2	19	24	5.9
Israel	100%	47%	2.8%	8	15	16.8	18	23	2.4
Kosovo	3.0%	2.1%	< 1%	4	9	10.7	13	19	-2.1
Belarus	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	4	7	9	10	19	-10.3
Andorra	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2	2	3.5	5	15	-17.3