Euro Qualifications: Match Week Three

 

Group A

	Probabilities			Point					GD
Country	At least Playoff	At least Second	Group Winner	Min	25%	Average	75%	Max	Average
Spain	100%	98.9%	60%	9	18	18.9	21	21	21.4
Scotland	100%	98.7%	40%	15	17	18.5	20	24	9.6
Norway	90%	2.4%	< 1%	7	10	11.1	13	16	-1
Georgia	100%	< 1%	< 1%	4	7	8.2	10	13	-8.3
Cyprus	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	0	0	1	1	9	-21.6

 

Spain and Scotland have almost (>98%) clinched qualification. Spain can clinch it mathematically if they beat Norway and at least draw against Scotland. Scotland clinch if Norway fail to win against Spain. Both Norway and Georgia have good chances to qualify via playoff.

Group B

	Probabilities			Point					GD
Country	At least Playoff	At least Second	Group Winner	Min	25%	Average	75%	Max	Average
France	100%	99.96%	85%	15	19	21	22	24	16.8
Netherlands	100%	98.0%	15%	9	17	18.5	21	21	11.8
Greece	100%	2.0%	< 1%	9	10	11.6	13	18	2.4
Ireland	22%	< 1%	< 1%	3	6	7.6	9	12	-1.2
Gibraltar	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	0	0	0.3	0	7	-29.8

Group is also almost dead. France will clinch qualifications if Greece take less than three points against Netherlands and Ireland. Netherlands clinch if they win against Greece and at least draw France. Greece have already clinched a spot in the playoff.
 

Group C

	Probabilities			Point					GD
Country	At least Playoff	At least Second	Group Winner	Min	25%	Average	75%	Max	Average
England	100%	99.9%	88%	13	19	19.6	22	22	20.4
Italy	100%	77%	12%	8	14	15.5	17	19	9.2
Ukraine	99.6%	22%	< 1%	7	12	13.2	14	16	1.9
North Macedonia	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	7	7	8.3	10	16	-10.9
Malta	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	0	0	0.4	0	7	-20.6

England is very near to clinch qualifications. They are mathematically qualified if they at least draw against Italy in October.

Group D

	Probabilities			Point					GD
Country	At least Playoff	At least Second	Group Winner	Min	25%	Average	75%	Max	Average
Croatia	100%	98.2%	93%	10	18	19.2	20	22	15.1
Turkey	100%	66%	3.6%	10	13	13.8	15	19	1.6
Wales	99.96%	35%	2.8%	7	11	12.4	14	16	1
Armenia	1.7%	1.7%	< 1%	7	8	9.3	10	16	-3
Latvia	83%	< 1%	< 1%	0	0	1.9	3	9	-14.7

Croatia are very likely to take one of the top-2 spots in Group D with Turkey and Wales fighting over the other spot. Croatia clinch qualifications in October if they beat Wales and at least draw Turkey. Turkey clinch if they beat Latvia and Croatia.

Group E

	Probabilities			Point					GD
Country	At least Playoff	At least Second	Group Winner	Min	25%	Average	75%	Max	Average
Czechia	>99.99%	87%	64%	8	15	16.4	18	20	12.4
Albania	99.8%	82%	32%	10	14	15.3	17	19	7
Poland	>99.99%	30%	4.0%	6	12	13.1	15	15	3
Moldova	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	7	7	8	9	16	-8.6
Faroe Islands	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	3	3	4	4	12	-13.8

In Group E Czechia and Albania are favourites before a disappointing Poland. In October we can enjoy a group final between Czechia and Albania, where the winner have secured qualifications with 99% certainty.

Group F

	Probabilities			Point					GD
Country	At least Playoff	At least Second	Group Winner	Min	25%	Average	75%	Max	Average
Belgium	100%	99.94%	80%	13	19	20.4	22	22	18.7
Austria	100%	99.7%	20%	13	17	17.9	19	22	9.2
Sweden	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	6	10	11.1	12	15	4.4
Estonia	98.7%	< 1%	< 1%	1	2	3.9	5	10	-16.5
Azerbaijan	21%	< 1%	< 1%	1	2	3.4	5	13	-15.8

Belgium and Austria have almost (>99%) clinched qualifications. If Sweden fail to win in Brussels, they both clinch the qualification. Estonia are very likely to get the chance in a playoff, while the Azerbaijan are less likely to get a second chance.

Group G

	Probabilities			Point					GD
Country	At least Playoff	At least Second	Group Winner	Min	25%	Average	75%	Max	Average
Hungary	100%	98.3%	72%	10	17	18.7	20	22	11.6
Serbia	100%	96.4%	27%	10	16	16.5	17	19	9.5
Montenegro	5%	5%	< 1%	8	11	11.2	12	17	-2.2
Bulgaria	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2	5	5.4	6	11	-6.8
Lithuania	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2	2	3.1	4	11	-12.2

Montenegro have only 5% after the favourites Hungary and Serbia. Hungary clinch qualifications if they beat Lithuania and Serbia. Serbia clinch if they beat Montenegro and at least draw Hungary.

Group H

	Probabilities			Point					GD
Country	At least Playoff	At least Second	Group Winner	Min	25%	Average	75%	Max	Average
Denmark	100%	97.8%	86%	14	23	23.7	25	25	19.9
Finland	>99.99%	70%	9%	12	19	20.7	22	24	14
Slovenia	77%	30%	4.7%	13	17	18.7	20	25	7
Kazakhstan	100%	2.2%	< 1%	12	15	15.8	16	24	0.6
Northern Ireland	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	3	7	8.4	10	15	-2.5
San Marino	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	0	0	0.2	0	7	-39

Group H is one of the most open groups but Denmark has almost clinched qualifications. In October there will be a crucial match between Finland and Slovenia. Finland have almost clinched a spot in the playoff; they only need that Israel (45%), Bosnia (7%), Serbia (96%) or Scotland (99%) finish top-2 in their group.

Group I

	Probabilities			Point					GD
Country	At least Playoff	At least Second	Group Winner	Min	25%	Average	75%	Max	Average
Switzerland	100%	98.6%	90%	14	22	23.5	26	26	19.8
Romania	56%	56%	7%	12	16	18.2	19	24	6.9
Israel	100%	45%	3.2%	11	16	17.5	19	23	1.8
Kosovo	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	4	8	9.9	11	16	-3.1
Belarus	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	4	7	8.5	10	16	-9.6
Andorra	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2	2	3.4	5	14	-15.6

Seems to be a close race between Romania and Israel, while Switzerland take one of the two top spots. Switzerland clinch qualifications if they beat Israel and at least draw Belarus.

Group J

	Probabilities			Point					GD
Country	At least Playoff	At least Second	Group Winner	Min	25%	Average	75%	Max	Average
Portugal	100%	100%	99.93%	20	28	28.6	30	30	35.6
Slovakia	64%	64%	< 1%	13	16	17.4	19	25	3.4
Luxembourg	76%	29%	< 1%	10	14	15.5	17	22	-8.9
Bosnia and Herzegovina	100%	4.7%	< 1%	6	11	12.7	15	18	-1.7
Iceland	3.3%	2.2%	< 1%	6	11	12.1	13	18	2.2
Liechtenstein	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	0	0	0.8	1	9	-30.6

Portugal clinch the group win if they beat Slovakia on October. Slovakia clinch qualification if they beat Portugal and Luxembourg.

 

Playoff teams are selected in each of League A, B and C
from the best-ranked team not yet qualified (in Top 2).
If one of those leagues have fewer than four non-qualified
teams, those spots are taken by League D group winners
(unless already qualified)

League A		Top 2	Playoff	Home Advantage
B	Netherlands	98.0%	2.0%	2.0%
D	Croatia	98.2%	1.8%	1.8%
A	Spain	98.9%	1.1%	1.1%
C	Italy	77%	23%	23%
H	Denmark	97.8%	2.2%	2.2%
J	Portugal	100%
F	Belgium	99.94%	< 1%	< 1%
G	Hungary	98.3%	1.7%	1.7%
I	Switzerland	98.6%	1.4%	1.4%
	Germany
E	Poland	30%	70%	68%
B	France	99.96%	< 1%	< 1%
F	Austria	99.7%	< 1%	< 1%
E	Czechia	87%	13%	12%
C	England	99.9%	< 1%	< 1%
D	Wales	35%	65%	49%
League B		Top 2	Playoff	Home Advantage
I	Israel	45%	55%	55%
J	Bosnia and Herzegovina	4.7%	95.3%	95.3%
G	Serbia	96.4%	3.6%	1.6%
A	Scotland	98.7%	1.3%	< 1%
H	Finland	70%	30%	16%
C	Ukraine	22%	77%	34%
E	Albania	82%	18%	8%
A	Norway	2.4%	87%	18%
H	Slovenia	30%	47%	7%
B	Ireland	< 1%	21%	3.0%
J	Iceland	2.2%	1.1%	< 1%
G	Montenegro	5%	< 1%
I	Romania	56%
F	Sweden	< 1%
D	Armenia	1.7%
League C		Top 2	Playoff	Home Advantage
A	Georgia	< 1%	99.99%	99.99%
B	Greece	2.0%	98.0%	98.0%
D	Turkey	66%	34%	< 1%
H	Kazakhstan	2.2%	97.8%	1.3%
J	Luxembourg	29%	47%	< 1%
F	Azerbaijan		21%	< 1%
I	Kosovo	< 1%	< 1%
G	Bulgaria	< 1%	< 1%
E	Faroe Islands	< 1%
C	North Macedonia	< 1%
J	Slovakia	64%
H	Northern Ireland
A	Cyprus
I	Belarus	< 1%
G	Lithuania	< 1%
B	Gibraltar
League D		Top 2	Playoff	Home Advantage
F	Estonia		98.7%
D	Latvia		83%
E	Moldova	< 1%
C	Malta
I	Andorra
H	San Marino
J	Liechtenstein