PL: North London Derby significant for the CL race

The coming week Arsenal and Spurs will meet in a NLD, which is significant for the CL race - with more than a 10% swing for both teams, as detailed below.

Hot Teams
Tottenham: 13 points in the last 5 matches, 4.7 more than expected
Brighton: 12 points in the last 5 matches, 3.7 more than expected
Liverpool: 13 points in the last 5 matches, 3.5 more than expected
Man City: 15 points in the last 5 matches, 3.5 more than expected
West Ham: 10 points in the last 5 matches, 3.1 more than expected

Cold Teams
Everton: 1 point in the last 5 matches, 5.0 less than expected
Sheffield United: 1 point in the last 5 matches, 3.6 less than expected
Luton: 0 points in the last 4 matches, 2.7 less than expected
Chelsea: 5 points in the last 5 matches, 2.7 less than expected
Man United: 6 points in the last 5 matches, 2.1 less than expected

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
15	Man City	89.6	+63	< 1%	>99.99%	>99.99%	99.98%	99.93%	89%	< 1%	< 1%	99.96%
13	Liverpool	76.6	+38	< 1%	99.09%	98.0%	96.0%	92%	8%	< 1%	4.2%	94%
13	Arsenal	72.4	+28	< 1%	96.2%	93%	88%	78%	2.8%	3.0%	12%	81%
13	Tottenham	64.4	+17	< 1%	76%	65%	52%	36%	< 1%	10%	29%	36%
12	Brighton	62.6	+16	< 1%	68%	56%	42%	26%	< 1%	11%	25%	33%
6	Newcastle	61.3	+17	< 1%	62%	49%	35%	21%	< 1%	13%	24%	25%
9	Aston Villa	59.4	+8	< 1%	50%	37%	25%	14%	< 1%	9%	40%	14%
6	Man United	59.3	+8	< 1%	49%	36%	24%	13%	< 1%	13%	23%	13%
10	West Ham	58.1	+7	< 1%	43%	31%	20%	11%	< 1%	12%	19%	11%
6	Brentford	55.3	+8	< 1%	29%	19%	11%	6%	< 1%	11%	13%	6%
7	Crystal Palace	51.0	-4	1.2%	12%	7%	3.7%	1.5%	< 1%	6%	5%	1.5%
5	Chelsea	48.4	-4	2.7%	7%	3.7%	1.8%	< 1%	< 1%	4.1%	3.9%	2.3%
7	Fulham	48.0	-13	3.3%	6%	3.1%	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%	3.1%	3.2%	< 1%
6	Forest	41.6	-19	16%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.1%	< 1%
3	Wolves	41.5	-19	16%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%
3	Burnley	41.5	-22	17%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.0%	< 1%	< 1%
3	Bournemouth	36.2	-26	41%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.3%	< 1%
1	Everton	35.5	-27	46%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.8%	< 1%
1	Sheffield United	31.1	-32	71%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
0	Luton	28.1	-43	85%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Titles

Team	One Title	Two titles	Three titles	Four titles	Double	Treble	Quadruple
Man City	97.6%	74%	33%	6%	38%	16%	6%
Liverpool	50%	11%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Arsenal	28%	3.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Tottenham	11%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
Brighton	15%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Newcastle	12%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Aston Villa	33%	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Man United	10%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
West Ham	5%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
Brentford	4.7%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
Crystal Palace	2.5%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
Chelsea	4.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Fulham	2.2%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
Forest	2.4%	< 1%
Wolves	1.0%	< 1%
Burnley	1.1%	< 1%
Bournemouth	1.6%	< 1%
Everton	3.3%	< 1%
Sheffield United	1.1%	< 1%
Luton	< 1%	< 1%

Important matches for CL race
Arsenal vs Tottenham (2.2%)	Home Win (58%)	Draw (21%)	Away Win (20%)
Tottenham	31%	37%	47%
Arsenal	85%	77%	72%

	Liverpool			Arsenal			Tottenham			Brighton			Newcastle			Aston Villa			Man United			West Ham			Brentford			Chelsea			Crystal Palace
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
81	29%	4.8%	100%	13%	2.7%	100%	1.3%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
80	34%	5%	100%	16%	3.2%	100%	1.8%	< 1%	99.9%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	99.9%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
79	40%	5%	>99.99%	19%	3.7%	>99.99%	2.5%	< 1%	99.9%	1.4%	< 1%	99.9%	< 1%	< 1%	99.9%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
78	45%	6%	99.99%	24%	4.2%	99.97%	3.5%	< 1%	99.8%	1.9%	< 1%	99.8%	1.2%	< 1%	99.8%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
77	51%	6%	99.96%	28%	4.6%	99.9%	4.7%	1.2%	99.8%	2.7%	< 1%	99.5%	1.7%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
76	57%	6%	99.9%	33%	5.0%	99.8%	6%	1.5%	99.2%	3.7%	1.0%	99.2%	2.4%	< 1%	99%	1.3%	< 1%	99%	1.2%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	100%
75	62%	6%	99.8%	38%	5%	99.7%	8%	1.9%	98.5%	5.0%	1.3%	98%	3.3%	< 1%	99%	1.9%	< 1%	98%	1.7%	< 1%	98%	1.2%	< 1%	98%	< 1%	< 1%	98%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	99%
74	67%	5%	99.6%	44%	5%	99.2%	10%	2.3%	97%	7%	1.6%	97%	4.5%	1.2%	97%	2.6%	< 1%	96%	2.4%	< 1%	95%	1.7%	< 1%	96%	< 1%	< 1%	97%	< 1%	< 1%	97%	< 1%	< 1%	97%
73	72%	4.9%	99.2%	50%	6%	98.2%	13%	2.8%	95%	9%	2.0%	95%	6%	1.5%	94%	3.6%	< 1%	93%	3.3%	< 1%	92%	2.3%	< 1%	93%	< 1%	< 1%	95%	< 1%	< 1%	96%	< 1%	< 1%	94%
72	77%	4.5%	98.3%	55%	6%	96.7%	16%	3.2%	91%	11%	2.4%	91%	8%	1.9%	90%	4.8%	1.2%	89%	4.5%	1.2%	88%	3.2%	< 1%	88%	1.2%	< 1%	88%	< 1%	< 1%	91%	< 1%	< 1%	89%
71	81%	4.1%	96.6%	61%	5%	94%	20%	3.7%	86%	14%	2.8%	86%	10%	2.2%	85%	6%	1.6%	82%	6%	1.5%	81%	4.3%	1.1%	82%	1.8%	< 1%	83%	< 1%	< 1%	86%	< 1%	< 1%	81%
70	84%	3.6%	94%	66%	5%	89%	24%	4.1%	79%	17%	3.3%	79%	13%	2.7%	78%	8%	1.9%	73%	8%	1.9%	72%	6%	1.4%	73%	2.5%	< 1%	74%	< 1%	< 1%	77%	< 1%	< 1%	75%
69	87%	3.1%	89%	71%	4.9%	83%	29%	4.5%	70%	21%	3.7%	70%	16%	3.1%	69%	11%	2.3%	62%	10%	2.2%	61%	8%	1.8%	62%	3.4%	< 1%	63%	< 1%	< 1%	65%	< 1%	< 1%	62%
68	90%	2.7%	83%	75%	4.6%	75%	34%	4.9%	58%	25%	4.1%	60%	19%	3.6%	58%	13%	2.7%	51%	13%	2.7%	50%	10%	2.2%	50%	4.6%	1.2%	51%	< 1%	< 1%	54%	1.1%	< 1%	51%
67	92%	2.2%	75%	80%	4.1%	64%	39%	5%	47%	29%	4.5%	49%	24%	4.1%	46%	16%	3.2%	39%	16%	3.1%	38%	12%	2.6%	39%	6%	1.5%	40%	< 1%	< 1%	43%	1.6%	< 1%	38%
66	94%	1.8%	66%	83%	3.7%	52%	44%	5%	35%	34%	4.9%	38%	28%	4.5%	36%	20%	3.6%	28%	20%	3.6%	27%	15%	3.0%	27%	8%	1.8%	28%	< 1%	< 1%	32%	2.3%	< 1%	26%
65	95.6%	1.5%	57%	86%	3.2%	41%	49%	5%	24%	39%	5%	29%	33%	4.8%	26%	24%	4.1%	18%	24%	4.1%	18%	19%	3.5%	18%	10%	2.2%	19%	1.3%	< 1%	20%	3.1%	< 1%	17%
64	96.8%	1.1%	48%	89%	2.8%	31%	55%	5%	15%	45%	5%	21%	38%	5%	18%	29%	4.5%	11%	28%	4.4%	10%	23%	4.0%	10%	13%	2.7%	11%	1.9%	< 1%	13%	4.2%	1.1%	9%
63	97.7%	< 1%	41%	92%	2.4%	23%	60%	5%	9%	50%	5%	15%	43%	5%	12%	33%	4.9%	6%	33%	4.8%	6%	27%	4.4%	6%	16%	3.1%	6%	2.6%	< 1%	8%	6%	1.4%	5%
62	98.3%	< 1%	36%	94%	1.9%	17%	66%	5%	4.6%	56%	5%	12%	49%	5%	9%	39%	5%	2.7%	38%	5%	2.7%	32%	4.8%	2.6%	19%	3.6%	2.8%	3.5%	< 1%	4%	7%	1.7%	2%
61	98.8%	< 1%	33%	95.1%	1.6%	14%	70%	4.9%	2.2%	61%	5%	10%	54%	5%	7%	44%	5%	1.3%	43%	5%	1.1%	37%	5%	1.2%	23%	4.0%	1.2%	4.7%	1.2%	2%	9%	2.1%	< 1%
60	99.18%	< 1%	31%	96.4%	1.2%	12%	75%	4.6%	< 1%	66%	5%	9%	60%	5%	5%	49%	5%	< 1%	49%	5%	< 1%	42%	5%	< 1%	28%	4.4%	< 1%	6%	1.5%	2%	12%	2.5%	< 1%
59	99.45%	< 1%	30%	97.3%	< 1%	11%	79%	4.2%	< 1%	71%	4.9%	9%	65%	5%	5%	55%	5%	< 1%	54%	5%	< 1%	48%	5%	< 1%	33%	4.9%	< 1%	8%	1.9%	1.7%	15%	3.0%	< 1%
58	99.63%	< 1%	31%	98.1%	< 1%	11%	83%	3.8%	< 1%	76%	4.5%	8%	70%	4.9%	5%	60%	5%	< 1%	60%	5%	< 1%	53%	6%	< 1%	38%	5%	< 1%	10%	2.2%	1.6%	18%	3.4%	< 1%
57	99.76%	< 1%	30%	98.7%	< 1%	11%	86%	3.3%	< 1%	80%	4.1%	9%	74%	4.6%	5%	65%	5%	< 1%	65%	5%	< 1%	59%	5%	< 1%	43%	5%	< 1%	13%	2.7%	1.7%	22%	3.9%	< 1%
56	99.84%	< 1%	29%	99.06%	< 1%	10%	89%	2.8%	< 1%	84%	3.7%	8%	79%	4.2%	5%	70%	4.9%	< 1%	70%	5.0%	< 1%	64%	5%	< 1%	49%	5%	< 1%	16%	3.1%	1.6%	26%	4.3%	< 1%
55	99.90%	< 1%	30%	99.36%	< 1%	10%	92%	2.4%	< 1%	87%	3.2%	8%	82%	3.8%	5%	75%	4.6%	< 1%	74%	4.6%	< 1%	69%	5%	< 1%	54%	5%	< 1%	20%	3.6%	1.6%	31%	4.7%	< 1%
54	99.94%	< 1%	31%	99.57%	< 1%	11%	94%	2.0%	< 1%	90%	2.8%	8%	86%	3.3%	5%	79%	4.2%	< 1%	79%	4.2%	< 1%	74%	4.7%	< 1%	60%	5%	< 1%	24%	4.1%	1.6%	36%	5%	< 1%
53	99.96%	< 1%	31%	99.72%	< 1%	10%	95.1%	1.6%	< 1%	92%	2.3%	8%	89%	2.9%	5%	83%	3.7%	< 1%	82%	3.8%	< 1%	78%	4.3%	< 1%	65%	5%	< 1%	28%	4.5%	1.6%	41%	5%	< 1%
52	99.98%	< 1%	36%	99.82%	< 1%	10%	96.4%	1.3%	< 1%	94%	1.9%	9%	91%	2.4%	5%	86%	3.3%	< 1%	86%	3.3%	< 1%	82%	3.9%	< 1%	70%	5.0%	< 1%	33%	4.8%	1.7%	47%	5%	< 1%
51	99.99%	< 1%	-	99.88%	< 1%	9%	97.4%	< 1%	< 1%	95.3%	1.5%	9%	93%	2.0%	5%	89%	2.8%	< 1%	89%	2.9%	< 1%	85%	3.5%	< 1%	74%	4.6%	< 1%	38%	5%	1.6%	53%	6%	< 1%
50	>99.99%	< 1%	-	99.93%	< 1%	12%	98.1%	< 1%	< 1%	96.5%	1.2%	8%	95%	1.7%	5%	91%	2.4%	< 1%	91%	2.4%	< 1%	88%	3.0%	< 1%	79%	4.3%	< 1%	44%	5%	1.6%	58%	5%	< 1%
49	>99.99%	< 1%	-	99.96%	< 1%	10%	98.7%	< 1%	< 1%	97.5%	< 1%	9%	96.1%	1.3%	5%	93%	2.0%	< 1%	93%	2.0%	< 1%	91%	2.5%	< 1%	83%	3.8%	< 1%	49%	5%	1.6%	63%	5%	< 1%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

	Europe	EL (or CL)	CL
Fourth team	100%	100%	99.51%
Fifth team	99.99%	99.93%	4.2%
FA cup winners	100%	100%	62%
League cup winners	>99.99%	74%	64%
Sixth team	93%	72%	3.1%
Seventh team	64%	14%	2.4%
Eighth team	19%	8%	1.9%

Simulated points for winner: 86 - 94
Simulated points for fourth: 66 - 71
Simulated points for 17th team: 34 - 38

Coming Matches

Home		Draw		Away
Luton	36%	24%	40%	Wolves
Man City	86%	10%	4.8%	Forest
Crystal Palace	53%	23%	25%	Fulham
Brentford	65%	19%	16%	Everton
Burnley	32%	24%	44%	Man United
Arsenal	58%	21%	20%	Tottenham
Chelsea	43%	24%	33%	Aston Villa
Liverpool	66%	19%	15%	West Ham
Brighton	69%	18%	14%	Bournemouth
Sheffield United	24%	23%	53%	Newcastle