CL: Match Week 1

Group D is the most open  group with Salzburg playing Sociedad in a key match in next round. Salzburg have 78% if they win, otherwise 41%. Sociedad have 64% if they win, otherwise 27%.

 

Group A			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
1	3	Bayern	13.2	(11-15)	< 1%	3%	19%	77%	96%
1	1	FC Kobenhavn	5.1	(3-7)	48%	39%	12%	2%	14%
1	1	Galatasaray	5.4	(4-7)	44%	40%	14%	3%	17%
1	0	Man United	9.4	(7-12)	8%	18%	56%	18%	74%

Group B			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
1	3	Arsenal	12.6	(11-15)	2%	5%	15%	78%	94%
1	1	Sevilla	6.2	(4-8)	40%	32%	22%	6%	27%
1	1	Lens	6.7	(5-8)	31%	34%	27%	8%	35%
1	0	PSV	7.4	(5-9)	27%	29%	36%	8%	44%

Group C			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
1	3	Napoli	11.7	(10-13)	2%	11%	40%	47%	87%
1	3	Real Madrid	11.7	(10-14)	2%	10%	40%	48%	88%
1	0	Braga	4.3	(3-6)	64%	29%	6%	< 1%	6%
1	0	Union Berlin	6.1	(4-8)	33%	50%	14%	4%	18%

Group D			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
1	3	Salzburg	8.8	(7-10)	16%	27%	31%	26%	57%
1	1	Inter	10.2	(8-12)	8%	16%	26%	50%	77%
1	1	Sociedad	7.3	(5-9)	32%	30%	25%	14%	39%
1	0	Benfica	6.4	(4-8)	45%	28%	18%	10%	28%

Group E			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
1	3	Feyenoord	9.2	(7-11)	10%	30%	32%	28%	60%
1	1	Atletico	10.6	(9-13)	5%	16%	29%	51%	79%
1	1	Lazio	8.3	(6-10)	17%	34%	31%	18%	49%
1	0	Celtic	4.8	(3-7)	68%	20%	9%	3%	11%

Group F			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
1	3	Paris SG	9	(7-11)	16%	24%	28%	32%	60%
1	1	Milan	7.9	(6-10)	27%	27%	25%	22%	47%
1	1	Newcastle	8.8	(7-11)	17%	23%	27%	33%	60%
1	0	Dortmund	6.9	(5-9)	40%	26%	20%	14%	34%

Group G			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
1	3	Man City	14.9	(13-16)	< 1%	< 1%	15%	84%	99%
1	3	RB Leipzig	10.9	(9-13)	1%	8%	76%	15%	91%
1	0	Crvena Zvezda	4.2	(3-6)	50%	44%	6%	< 1%	6%
1	0	Young Boys	4.2	(3-6)	49%	47%	3%	< 1%	4%

Group H			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
1	3	Barcelona	12.3	(10-14)	< 1%	6%	38%	55%	93%
1	3	Porto	11.7	(10-13)	1%	10%	47%	42%	89%
1	0	Shakhtar	4.1	(2-6)	63%	32%	4%	< 1%	5%
1	0	Antwerp	5.9	(4-8)	35%	51%	11%	2%	14%

 

		Chance in Group			Stage-by-stage Probabilities
Group	Team	3rd	2nd	1st	Last 16	Quarter	Semi	Final	Champ
G	Man City	< 1%	15%	84%	99.33%	85%	70%	56%	41%
A	Bayern	3.4%	19%	77%	95.8%	65%	39%	22%	11%
B	Arsenal	5.0%	15%	78%	94%	62%	36%	19%	9%
C	Real Madrid	10%	40%	48%	88%	53%	30%	15%	7%
C	Napoli	11%	40%	47%	87%	50%	27%	13%	5%
D	Inter	16%	27%	50%	77%	44%	23%	11%	4.6%
H	Barcelona	6%	38%	55%	93%	49%	23%	10%	3.9%
E	Atletico	16%	29%	50%	79%	40%	18%	8%	2.9%
A	Man United	18%	56%	18%	74%	40%	18%	8%	2.8%
F	Newcastle	23%	27%	33%	59%	33%	16%	6%	2.5%
G	RB Leipzig	8%	76%	15%	91%	43%	19%	7%	2.5%
H	Porto	10%	47%	42%	89%	39%	16%	6%	1.9%
F	Milan	27%	25%	22%	47%	23%	10%	4.1%	1.5%
F	Paris SG	24%	27%	32%	60%	26%	10%	3.5%	1.2%
F	Dortmund	26%	21%	14%	34%	16%	7%	2.4%	< 1%
D	Benfica	28%	18%	10%	27%	11%	4.1%	1.4%	< 1%
E	Lazio	34%	31%	18%	49%	17%	5%	1.5%	< 1%
B	PSV	29%	36%	8%	44%	15%	5.0%	1.5%	< 1%
E	Feyenoord	30%	32%	28%	60%	19%	6%	1.5%	< 1%
D	Sociedad	30%	25%	14%	38%	14%	4.5%	1.3%	< 1%
D	Salzburg	27%	31%	26%	57%	18%	4.9%	1.1%	< 1%
B	Lens	34%	27%	8%	35%	10%	2.5%	< 1%	< 1%
B	Sevilla	32%	22%	6%	27%	8%	2.1%	< 1%	< 1%
C	Union Berlin	50%	14%	3.7%	18%	6%	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%
A	Galatasaray	40%	14%	2.8%	17%	4.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
H	Antwerp	51%	11%	2.3%	14%	2.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
C	Braga	29%	6%	< 1%	6%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
A	FC Kobenhavn	39%	12%	2.0%	14%	2.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
E	Celtic	20%	9%	2.9%	11%	1.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
G	Young Boys	47%	3.3%	< 1%	3.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
G	Crvena Zvezda	44%	6%	< 1%	6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
H	Shakhtar	32%	4.3%	< 1%	4.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%