Europe: English teams favorites in EL and ECL

Europa League

		Chance in Group		Stage-by-stage Probabilities
Group	Team	2nd	1st	Last 24	Last 16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
E	Liverpool	6%	93%	99.26%	98.1%	81%	65%	50%	35%
H	Leverkusen	16%	79%	95.3%	88%	52%	27%	13%	5%
A	West Ham	38%	54%	92%	76%	47%	25%	12%	5%
B	Brighton	26%	34%	61%	51%	34%	20%	11%	5%
G	Roma	25%	73%	97.5%	87%	51%	26%	12%	5%
D	Sporting	37%	54%	91%	74%	41%	20%	9%	3.7%
D	Atalanta	44%	42%	86%	66%	36%	17%	8%	3.0%
	Newcastle			23%	18%	13%	8%	5.0%	2.6%
	Inter			14%	12%	9%	6%	4.0%	2.3%
	Milan			27%	21%	13%	8%	4.5%	2.3%
	Dortmund			26%	20%	12%	7%	4.0%	2.0%
A	Freiburg	49%	44%	92%	67%	32%	13%	5.0%	1.8%
	Man United			20%	15%	10%	6%	3.4%	1.7%
	Real Madrid			10%	8%	6%	4.1%	2.7%	1.6%
	Benfica			28%	20%	12%	7%	3.4%	1.6%
F	Rennes	26%	53%	79%	65%	31%	12%	4.5%	1.6%
	Napoli			11%	9%	6%	4.3%	2.7%	1.5%
	Paris SG			23%	17%	10%	6%	3.0%	1.4%
	Atletico			18%	13%	8%	4.8%	2.6%	1.3%
C	Betis	34%	31%	65%	47%	22%	9%	3.3%	1.1%
F	Villarreal	31%	24%	55%	39%	18%	8%	2.9%	1.0%
	Union Berlin			50%	31%	15%	6%	2.6%	< 1%
	Arsenal			5.0%	4.2%	3.3%	2.4%	1.6%	< 1%
	PSV			29%	19%	10%	4.9%	2.2%	< 1%
	Lazio			34%	22%	11%	5%	2.3%	< 1%
	Sociedad			30%	19%	10%	4.8%	2.1%	< 1%
B	Marseille	26%	26%	52%	38%	17%	7%	2.4%	< 1%
B	Ajax	24%	20%	44%	31%	14%	6%	2.1%	< 1%
	Bayern			3.3%	2.9%	2.1%	1.6%	1.1%	< 1%
	Barcelona			6%	4.6%	3.1%	2.0%	1.2%	< 1%
	Porto			9%	7%	4.2%	2.5%	1.3%	< 1%
	Feyenoord			28%	18%	9%	4.0%	1.7%	< 1%
	RB Leipzig			6%	4.9%	3.1%	1.9%	1.1%	< 1%
	Sevilla			32%	19%	9%	3.6%	1.4%	< 1%
	Lens			34%	20%	9%	3.6%	1.3%	< 1%
	Salzburg			27%	16%	7%	3.1%	1.2%	< 1%
	Galatasaray			39%	22%	9%	3.4%	1.1%	< 1%
G	Slavia Praha	61%	26%	87%	48%	16%	5%	1.3%	< 1%
C	Rangers	32%	40%	72%	51%	18%	5%	1.3%	< 1%
	Man City			< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
C	Sparta Praha	29%	28%	57%	37%	12%	3.3%	< 1%	< 1%
	Antwerp			53%	25%	8%	2.6%	< 1%	< 1%
	Braga			29%	15%	5%	1.8%	< 1%	< 1%
E	St Gillis	48%	4.2%	52%	21%	7%	2.1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Young Boys			49%	21%	6%	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%
	FC Kobenhavn			37%	17%	5%	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%
B	AEK	24%	20%	44%	26%	7%	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%
H	Karabakh Agdam	50%	15%	65%	28%	7%	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%
F	Panathinaikos	29%	19%	48%	27%	7%	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%
	Celtic			21%	9%	2.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Shakhtar			32%	12%	3.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Crvena Zvezda			44%	16%	3.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
E	Toulouse	32%	2.2%	34%	11%	2.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
A	Olympiakos	12%	2.5%	15%	6%	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
F	Maccabi Haifa	14%	4.7%	19%	8%	2.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
H	Molde	21%	4.3%	25%	9%	2.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
D	Sturm Graz	10%	1.8%	12%	4.6%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
D	Rakow	9%	2.0%	11%	4.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
E	LASK	14%	< 1%	15%	3.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
G	Sheriff Tiraspol	11%	< 1%	12%	2.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
H	Haecken	13%	1.3%	15%	3.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
G	Servette	3.8%	< 1%	4.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
C	Aris Limassol	4.2%	1.3%	6%	1.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
A	Backa Topola	1.2%	< 1%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

 

 Europa Conference League

		Chance in Group		Stage-by-stage Probabilities
Group	Team	2nd	1st	Last 24	Last 16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
E	Aston Villa	25%	64%	89%	84%	66%	48%	34%	22%
F	Fiorentina	22%	73%	95.2%	89%	63%	41%	24%	13%
G	Frankfurt	22%	76%	98.5%	91%	61%	36%	19%	10%
A	Lille	7%	93%	99.34%	97.0%	63%	35%	18%	9%
H	Fenerbahce	16%	78%	95%	89%	58%	33%	17%	8%
	Brighton			21%	18%	14%	10%	7%	4.6%
B	Gent	38%	51%	89%	72%	39%	18%	7%	3.1%
D	Besiktas	30%	44%	74%	61%	33%	16%	7%	2.8%
D	Brugge	33%	33%	66%	52%	28%	13%	6%	2.4%
	Villarreal			29%	21%	13%	7%	4.0%	2.0%
	Betis			28%	21%	12%	7%	3.7%	1.8%
	Ajax			27%	20%	12%	7%	3.5%	1.8%
	Marseille			26%	18%	11%	6%	3.2%	1.6%
C	Dinamo Zagreb	31%	64%	95.2%	79%	36%	13%	4.4%	1.5%
F	Genk	56%	21%	78%	51%	23%	10%	3.8%	1.4%
E	Alkmaar	29%	14%	43%	30%	15%	7%	3.1%	1.3%
	West Ham			8%	7%	4.8%	3.3%	2.1%	1.3%
	Atalanta			11%	9%	6%	3.7%	2.2%	1.2%
B	M Tel Aviv	39%	43%	82%	61%	27%	10%	3.1%	1.1%
	Rennes			16%	12%	7%	4.0%	2.1%	1.1%
	Sporting			8%	6%	4.1%	2.7%	1.6%	< 1%
	Olympiakos			70%	40%	15%	6%	2.0%	< 1%
	St Gillis			31%	20%	9%	4.1%	1.7%	< 1%
	Sparta Praha			36%	22%	9%	4.1%	1.6%	< 1%
	Leverkusen			4.1%	3.4%	2.3%	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%
	Freiburg			7%	5%	3.1%	1.8%	< 1%	< 1%
	Rangers			22%	14%	6%	2.9%	1.2%	< 1%
G	PAOK	67%	23%	90%	50%	17%	5%	1.4%	< 1%
	Sturm Graz			42%	23%	9%	3.3%	1.1%	< 1%
D	Bodoe Glimt	24%	17%	41%	28%	11%	3.8%	1.1%	< 1%
	Toulouse			39%	22%	8%	3.1%	1.0%	< 1%
C	Viktoria Plzen	51%	33%	84%	53%	18%	5%	1.3%	< 1%
	Liverpool			< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Roma			2.3%	1.8%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
H	Nordsjaelland	41%	9%	50%	27%	10%	3.2%	< 1%	< 1%
	Slavia Praha			12%	8%	3.5%	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%
E	Legia	41%	21%	62%	36%	12%	3.4%	< 1%	< 1%
	Panathinaikos			31%	17%	6%	2.3%	< 1%	< 1%
	AEK			26%	14%	5%	2.0%	< 1%	< 1%
	Rakow			39%	20%	7%	2.3%	< 1%	< 1%
	Molde			43%	22%	7%	2.3%	< 1%	< 1%
	Karabakh Agdam			25%	14%	5.0%	1.8%	< 1%	< 1%
	Maccabi Haifa			24%	13%	4.4%	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%
H	Razgrad	37%	11%	49%	24%	7%	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%
	LASK			30%	14%	3.9%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Sheriff Tiraspol			51%	21%	5%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%
D	Lugano	13%	6%	19%	10%	3.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Haecken			28%	11%	2.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Servette			35%	12%	2.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
F	Ferencvaros	19%	5%	25%	10%	2.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
B	Zorya	20%	6%	26%	11%	2.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Aris Limassol			14%	4.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
A	Slovan Bratislava	55%	6%	61%	16%	2.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
C	FK Astana	16%	2.8%	19%	6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
H	Trnava	6%	< 1%	7%	2.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
A	Olimpija Ljubljana	35%	1.6%	37%	7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Backa Topola			15%	3.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
F	Cukaricki	2.2%	< 1%	2.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
G	Aberdeen	7%	< 1%	8%	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
E	Zrinjski Mostar	6%	1.1%	7%	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
A	Klaksvik	3.3%	< 1%	3.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
B	Breidablik	2.2%	< 1%	2.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
G	HJK Helsinki	2.8%	< 1%	3.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
C	Ballkani	1.9%	< 1%	2.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%