Romania and Israel play a match being pivotal for both of them as Switzerland are favourites to win the group. In Group F, Sweden must win against Estonia and in Group C England play Ukraine - a match more important for Ukraine and Italy as England practically already have clinched a place in the finals.
Group I
| Romania vs Israel (26.5%) | Home Win (47%) | Draw (24%) | Away Win (29%) |
| Romania | 79% | 51% | 25% |
| Israel | 38% | 60% | 80% |
Group F
| Estonia vs Sweden (4.8%) | Home Win (18%) | Draw (20%) | Away Win (62%) |
| Sweden | 3.9% | 8% | 20% |
| Austria | 97.0% | 95% | 87% |
Group C
| Ukraine vs England (2.2%) | Home Win (38%) | Draw (24%) | Away Win (38%) |
| England | 98.1% | 99.88% | >99.99% |
| Ukraine | 70% | 62% | 58% |
| Italy | 87% | 91% | 94% |
Group C
| Probabilities | Point | GD | ||||||||
| Country | At least Playoff | At least Second | Group Winner | Min | 25% | Average | 75% | Max | Average | |
| England | >99.99% | 98.2% | 80% | 12 | 18 | 19.9 | 21 | 24 | 20.4 | |
| Italy | 100% | 71% | 16% | 4 | 14 | 16.1 | 18 | 21 | 11.3 | |
| Ukraine | 99.88% | 30% | 3.9% | 6 | 12 | 14.2 | 16 | 21 | 1.5 | |
| North Macedonia | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 3 | 6 | 6.8 | 8 | 18 | -13.5 | |
| Malta | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 3 | 10 | -19.6 | |
England clinch at least playoff if they draw (or win) against Ukraine (62%)
Group F
| Probabilities | Point | GD | ||||||||
| Country | At least Playoff | At least Second | Group Winner | Min | 25% | Average | 75% | Max | Average | |
| Belgium | 100% | 99.29% | 84% | 8 | 19 | 19.9 | 22 | 22 | 19 | |
| Austria | >99.99% | 86% | 15% | 10 | 14 | 16 | 17 | 22 | 6.7 | |
| Sweden | 15% | 15% | < 1% | 3 | 10 | 11.8 | 13 | 18 | 3 | |
| Estonia | 96.8% | < 1% | < 1% | 1 | 3 | 4.7 | 6 | 16 | -11.2 | |
| Azerbaijan | 23% | < 1% | < 1% | 1 | 2 | 3.6 | 5 | 14 | -17.6 | |
Group I
| Probabilities | Point | GD | ||||||||
| Country | At least Playoff | At least Second | Group Winner | Min | 25% | Average | 75% | Max | Average | |
| Switzerland | 100% | 99.33% | 92% | 12 | 23 | 24.8 | 26 | 28 | 23 | |
| Romania | 57% | 57% | 5% | 8 | 16 | 17.9 | 20 | 26 | 6.3 | |
| Israel | 100% | 42% | 2.3% | 7 | 15 | 17 | 19 | 25 | 2 | |
| Kosovo | 2.3% | 1.3% | < 1% | 3 | 8 | 10.2 | 12 | 21 | -3.7 | |
| Belarus | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 3 | 8 | 10 | 12 | 21 | -9.3 | |
| Andorra | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 1 | 2 | 3.2 | 4 | 16 | -18.3 | |
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