Euro: Turkey vs Armenia

Turkey host Armenia in critical match. Armenia need to win to have a reasonable chance, while Turkey have >90% if they win.

Group D

Turkey vs Armenia (12.3%)	Home Win (74%)	Draw (16%)	Away Win (11%)
Turkey	91%	77%	56%
Armenia	< 1%	4.1%	24%
Wales	47%	56%	60%

Group J

Luxembourg vs Iceland (6%)	Home Win (36%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (40%)
Luxembourg	29%	16%	11%
Iceland	1.1%	4.1%	11%
Slovakia	62%	70%	69%

Group J

Slovakia vs Portugal (2.9%)	Home Win (11%)	Draw (16%)	Away Win (73%)
Slovakia	87%	72%	62%
Luxembourg	10%	16%	20%
Iceland	2.1%	5.0%	7%
Bosnia and Herzegovina	24%	29%	32%

 

Group A

	Probabilities			Point					GD
Country	At least Playoff	At least Second	Group Winner	Min	25%	Average	75%	Max	Average
Spain	100%	96.7%	56%	5	16	18	19	21	14.9
Scotland	100%	97.0%	43%	12	16	17.8	19	24	8.2
Norway	85%	3.5%	< 1%	4	8	10.1	11	16	-1.1
Georgia	100%	2.8%	< 1%	4	8	9.6	11	19	-3.6
Cyprus	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	0	0	1.6	3	13	-18.3

Group D

	Probabilities			Point					GD
Country	At least Playoff	At least Second	Group Winner	Min	25%	Average	75%	Max	Average
Croatia	100%	96.1%	83%	5	17	18.5	20	22	14.4
Turkey	100%	81%	14%	9	14	15.2	16	21	3.3
Wales	99.63%	19%	2.7%	4	10	11.8	14	16	0.7
Armenia	3.7%	3.7%	< 1%	6	7	9.2	10	21	-5.5
Latvia	78%	< 1%	< 1%	0	1	2.5	4	15	-12.8

 Group J

	Probabilities			Point					GD
Country	At least Playoff	At least Second	Group Winner	Min	25%	Average	75%	Max	Average
Portugal	100%	99.98%	99.09%	15	27	27.8	30	30	30.7
Slovakia	67%	67%	< 1%	10	16	17.8	20	28	3.3
Bosnia and Herzegovina	100%	12%	< 1%	3	12	13.9	16	21	1.9
Luxembourg	85%	15%	< 1%	7	12	13.9	16	25	-5.4
Iceland	7%	6%	< 1%	3	10	12.1	14	21	3.5
Liechtenstein	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	0	0	1	1	12	-33.9

Portugal clinch at least pot 3 if they win against Slovakia and Liechtenstein draw (or win) against Bosnia and Herzegovina (4%)