EL & ECL: Many groups open before the final match day

Ten teams have qualified for the EL knockout stages plus Feyernord from CL. IN addition teams like Newcastle, PSG and Man U are likely to end up in the EL knockouts.

In ECL, 11 teams have clinched a place in the knockout stage plus Servette via a third place in their EL group.

Europa League

Group A			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
4	9	West Ham	13.3	(12-15)	< 1%	< 1%	25%	74%	99.24%
4	9	Freiburg	11.9	(10-13)	< 1%	10%	64%	26%	90%
4	4	Olympiakos	7.3	(7-8)	5%	84%	11%	< 1%	11%
4	1	Backa Topola	1.8	(1-2)	95%	5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group B			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
5	11	Marseille	11.7	(11-12)	< 1%	< 1%	62%	38%	100%
5	10	Brighton	12.1	(11-13)	< 1%	< 1%	38%	62%	100%
5	4	AEK	4.9	(4-5)	55%	45%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
5	2	Ajax	3.9	(3-5)	45%	55%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group C			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
5	9	Betis	11.1	(10-12)	< 1%	8%	11%	81%	92%
5	8	Rangers	8.7	(8-9)	< 1%	39%	45%	17%	61%
5	7	Sparta Praha	8.6	(7-10)	13%	41%	44%	1.9%	46%
5	4	Aris Limassol	5.1	(4-7)	87%	13%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group D			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
5	11	Atalanta	12.9	(12-14)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	100%
5	8	Sporting	10.2	(9-11)	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	100%
5	4	Sturm Graz	4.6	(4-5)	45%	55%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
5	4	Rakow	4.9	(4-5)	55%	45%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group E			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
5	12	Liverpool	14	(13-15)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	100%
5	8	Toulouse	9.3	(8-11)	< 1%	6%	94%	< 1%	94%
5	5	St Gillis	5.8	(5-6)	32%	62%	6%	< 1%	6%
5	3	LASK	4.5	(3-6)	68%	32%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group F			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
5	12	Rennes	13.6	(12-15)	< 1%	< 1%	46%	54%	100%
4	9	Villarreal	12.3	(12-13)	< 1%	< 1%	54%	46%	100%
5	4	Panathinaikos	5.8	(4-7)	26%	74%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
4	1	Maccabi Haifa	2.6	(1-4)	74%	26%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group G			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
5	12	Slavia Praha	14.3	(13-15)	< 1%	< 1%	13%	87%	100%
5	10	Roma	12.5	(13-13)	< 1%	< 1%	87%	13%	100%
5	5	Servette	5.6	(5-6)	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
5	1	Sheriff Tiraspol	1.4	(1-1)	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group H			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
5	15	Leverkusen	17.5	(18-18)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	100%
5	7	Karabakh Agdam	9.1	(8-10)	< 1%	4.7%	95.3%	< 1%	95.3%
5	7	Molde	7.4	(7-7)	< 1%	95.3%	4.7%	< 1%	4.7%
5	0	Haecken	0.7	(0-1)	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

		Chance in Group				Stage-by-stage Probabilities
Group	Team	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	Last 24	Last 16	Quarter	Semi	Final	Champ
E	Liverpool	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	85%	67%	53%	31%
H	Leverkusen	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	65%	37%	20%	10%
B	Brighton	< 1%	< 1%	38%	62%	100%	88%	58%	33%	17%	8%
D	Atalanta	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	60%	31%	14%	7%
A	West Ham	< 1%	< 1%	25%	74%	99.24%	89%	54%	26%	12%	5%
	Newcastle					37%	29%	21%	14%	8%	4.3%
	Paris SG					51%	36%	21%	13%	8%	3.9%
C	Betis	< 1%	8%	11%	81%	92%	87%	47%	21%	8%	3.8%
G	Roma	< 1%	< 1%	87%	13%	100%	65%	34%	17%	8%	3.6%
	Feyenoord					100%	63%	31%	16%	7%	3.3%
F	Villarreal	< 1%	< 1%	54%	46%	100%	74%	34%	14%	5%	2.3%
	Man United					34%	24%	15%	9%	4.5%	2.1%
D	Sporting	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	100%	54%	24%	11%	4.6%	2.1%
F	Rennes	< 1%	< 1%	46%	54%	100%	78%	34%	13%	4.4%	1.9%
B	Marseille	< 1%	< 1%	62%	38%	100%	70%	29%	11%	3.8%	1.7%
A	Freiburg	< 1%	10%	64%	26%	90%	58%	26%	10%	3.7%	1.6%
	Lens					73%	41%	18%	8%	3.2%	1.5%
G	Slavia Praha	< 1%	< 1%	13%	87%	100%	93%	36%	11%	2.9%	1.3%
	Salzburg					84%	43%	16%	6%	2.0%	< 1%
	Milan					12%	9%	5%	3.1%	1.8%	< 1%
	Galatasaray					42%	23%	9%	3.7%	1.3%	< 1%
	Porto					11%	8%	4.3%	2.4%	1.2%	< 1%
	Sevilla					27%	16%	7%	2.9%	1.2%	< 1%
	Braga					83%	38%	12%	3.9%	1.1%	< 1%
	Benfica					16%	10%	4.8%	2.3%	1.0%	< 1%
	Young Boys					100%	38%	10%	2.5%	< 1%	< 1%
C	Rangers	< 1%	39%	45%	17%	61%	32%	9%	2.4%	< 1%	< 1%
E	Toulouse	< 1%	6%	94%	< 1%	94%	32%	7%	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%
	Shakhtar					89%	30%	7%	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%
H	Karabakh Agdam	< 1%	4.7%	95.3%	< 1%	95.3%	28%	6%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%
	Napoli					3.5%	2.8%	1.8%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%
C	Sparta Praha	13%	41%	44%	1.9%	46%	17%	4.4%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%
	FC Kobenhavn					24%	9%	2.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Union Berlin					14%	6%	2.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
A	Olympiakos	5%	84%	11%	< 1%	11%	3.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
E	St Gillis	32%	62%	6%	< 1%	6%	2.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
H	Molde	< 1%	95.3%	4.7%	< 1%	4.7%	1.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Europa Conference League

Group A			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
5	11	Lille	13.8	(14-14)	< 1%	< 1%	5%	95%	100%
5	10	Slovan Bratislava	12	(11-13)	< 1%	< 1%	95%	5%	100%
5	4	Klaksvik	4.1	(4-4)	19%	81%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
5	3	Olimpija Ljubljana	3.8	(3-4)	81%	19%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group B			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
5	13	Gent	14.3	(13-16)	< 1%	< 1%	41%	59%	100%
5	12	M Tel Aviv	13.5	(12-15)	< 1%	< 1%	59%	41%	100%
5	4	Zorya	6.3	(5-7)	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
5	0	Breidablik	0.5	(0-1)	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group C			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
5	15	Viktoria Plzen	17.2	(16-18)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	100%
5	6	Dinamo Zagreb	8.6	(9-9)	1.1%	6%	93%	< 1%	93%
5	4	FK Astana	4.7	(4-5)	14%	85%	1.1%	< 1%	1.1%
5	4	Ballkani	4.3	(4-4)	85%	9%	6%	< 1%	6%

Group D			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
5	13	Brugge	14.9	(14-16)	< 1%	< 1%	9%	91%	100%
5	10	Bodoe Glimt	10.9	(10-11)	< 1%	< 1%	91%	9%	100%
5	4	Lugano	5.3	(4-7)	21%	79%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
5	1	Besiktas	2.5	(1-4)	79%	21%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group E			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
5	12	Aston Villa	14.6	(15-15)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	99.53%	100%
5	9	Legia	10.2	(9-12)	< 1%	45%	54%	< 1%	55%
5	6	Alkmaar	7.6	(6-9)	1.6%	53%	45%	< 1%	45%
5	3	Zrinjski Mostar	3.3	(3-3)	98.4%	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group F			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
5	11	Fiorentina	13	(12-14)	< 1%	< 1%	21%	79%	100%
5	9	Ferencvaros	9.8	(9-10)	< 1%	44%	35%	21%	56%
5	6	Genk	8.6	(9-9)	< 1%	56%	44%	< 1%	44%
5	0	Cukaricki	0.3	(0-0)	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group G			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
5	13	PAOK	15.4	(16-16)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	100%
5	9	Frankfurt	11.3	(10-12)	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	100%
5	3	Aberdeen	3.6	(3-4)	8%	92%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
5	2	HJK Helsinki	2.4	(2-2)	92%	8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group H			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
5	10	Nordsjaelland	11.3	(10-13)	< 1%	32%	27%	41%	68%
5	9	Razgrad	10.4	(9-12)	< 1%	55%	21%	24%	45%
5	9	Fenerbahce	11.6	(12-12)	< 1%	13%	52%	35%	87%
5	1	Trnava	1.3	(1-1)	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

		Chance in Group				Stage-by-stage Probabilities
Group	Team	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	Last 24	Last 16	Quarter	Semi	Final	Champ
E	Aston Villa	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	99.53%	100%	99.94%	85%	68%	54%	32%
F	Fiorentina	< 1%	< 1%	21%	79%	100%	95.2%	69%	45%	27%	13%
A	Lille	< 1%	< 1%	5%	95%	100%	98.6%	67%	40%	21%	10%
H	Fenerbahce	< 1%	13%	52%	35%	87%	74%	49%	30%	16%	8%
G	Frankfurt	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	100%	73%	44%	26%	14%	7%
D	Brugge	< 1%	< 1%	9%	91%	100%	96.7%	56%	26%	11%	4.9%
B	Gent	< 1%	< 1%	41%	59%	100%	85%	47%	22%	9%	4.0%
	St Gillis					62%	40%	22%	11%	5%	2.5%
G	PAOK	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	45%	16%	4.6%	1.9%
	Olympiakos					84%	47%	20%	9%	3.4%	1.5%
	Ajax					55%	33%	16%	8%	3.3%	1.5%
B	M Tel Aviv	< 1%	< 1%	59%	41%	100%	71%	30%	11%	3.4%	1.4%
D	Bodoe Glimt	< 1%	< 1%	91%	9%	100%	57%	24%	10%	3.2%	1.4%
E	Alkmaar	1.6%	53%	45%	< 1%	45%	28%	14%	6%	2.6%	1.1%
C	Viktoria Plzen	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	37%	10%	2.4%	< 1%
H	Nordsjaelland	< 1%	32%	27%	41%	68%	54%	23%	8%	2.4%	< 1%
F	Genk	< 1%	56%	44%	< 1%	44%	27%	12%	5%	2.0%	< 1%
	Panathinaikos					74%	37%	14%	5%	1.7%	< 1%
	Sturm Graz					55%	29%	12%	4.7%	1.6%	< 1%
	Sparta Praha					41%	23%	10%	4.2%	1.6%	< 1%
	Rangers					39%	21%	9%	4.0%	1.5%	< 1%
	Freiburg					10%	7%	4.3%	2.5%	1.3%	< 1%
	Betis					8%	6%	3.6%	2.3%	1.3%	< 1%
	AEK					45%	23%	9%	3.5%	1.2%	< 1%
C	Dinamo Zagreb	1.1%	6%	93%	< 1%	93%	40%	13%	4.0%	< 1%	< 1%
	Molde					95.3%	39%	12%	3.5%	< 1%	< 1%
H	Razgrad	< 1%	55%	21%	24%	45%	31%	9%	2.2%	< 1%	< 1%
F	Ferencvaros	< 1%	44%	35%	21%	56%	33%	9%	2.1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Rakow					45%	19%	6%	2.0%	< 1%	< 1%
	Servette					100%	33%	8%	1.9%	< 1%	< 1%
	Maccabi Haifa					26%	12%	4.3%	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%
	LASK					32%	13%	4.0%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%
E	Legia	< 1%	45%	54%	< 1%	55%	19%	4.9%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%
A	Slovan Bratislava	< 1%	< 1%	95%	5%	100%	27%	4.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Toulouse					6%	2.9%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Aris Limassol					13%	3.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Karabakh Agdam					4.7%	2.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
C	Ballkani	85%	9%	6%	< 1%	6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Backa Topola					5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
C	FK Astana	14%	85%	1.1%	< 1%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	West Ham					< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Which country get extra CL spots

		Score
Country	Probability	Average	Min	Max
ENG	89%	20.99	13.5	28.25
GER	47%	18.52	13.21	26.21
ITA	41%	18.34	12.71	27.57
ESP	13%	16.98	11.94	24.06
FRA	7%	15.93	10.25	25.08
BEL	1.3%	14.57	10.2	23
CZE	< 1%	13.52	9.5	22.25
TUR	< 1%	12.96	9	20.5
NED	< 1%	11.62	8	21.2
GRE	< 1%	10.58	7.2	18.8

 

CL: Big decider when Galatasaray travel to Copenhagen

Twelve teams have qualified for the knockout stage after five matches. On this half Group A is wide open and Group C is still not entirely decided.

Group A			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
5	13	Bayern	14.5	(13-16)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	100%
5	5	FC Kobenhavn	6.4	(5-8)	21%	24%	55%	< 1%	55%
5	5	Galatasaray	6.3	(5-8)	21%	42%	36%	< 1%	36%
5	4	Man United	5.2	(4-7)	58%	34%	8%	< 1%	8%

Kobenhavn play Galatasaray in Copenhagen in a match that will be a decider. The winner proceed to the knockout stage. If it's a draw, Man United clinch a place in the knockout stage if they beat Bayern (at home). If Man United fail to win, Kobenhavn take the runner-up place if the score is 2-2 (or fewer goals) and Galatasaray take the runner-up place if the score is 3-3 (or more goals).

Group B			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
5	12	Arsenal	13.6	(12-15)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	100%
5	8	PSV	9.2	(8-11)	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	100%
5	5	Lens	6.7	(5-8)	27%	73%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
5	2	Sevilla	3	(2-5)	73%	27%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group C			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
5	15	Real Madrid	17	(16-18)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	100%
5	7	Napoli	9.3	(8-10)	< 1%	3.5%	96.5%	< 1%	96.5%
5	4	Braga	4.5	(4-5)	14%	83%	3.5%	< 1%	3.5%
5	2	Union Berlin	2.8	(2-3)	86%	14%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Braga need to beat Napoli (away) and they need a result better that 1-2, i.e., they need to win with 2-0 or 3-2.

Group D			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
5	11	Sociedad	11.8	(11-12)	< 1%	< 1%	59%	41%	100%
5	11	Inter	13	(12-14)	< 1%	< 1%	41%	59%	100%
5	4	Salzburg	5.5	(4-7)	16%	84%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
5	1	Benfica	2.3	(1-4)	84%	16%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

 

 

		Chance in Group				Stage-by-stage Probabilities
Group	Team	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	Last 16	Quarter	Semi	Final	Champ
G	Man City	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	100%	86%	67%	51%	30%
A	Bayern	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	100%	71%	43%	24%	12%
C	Real Madrid	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	100%	74%	43%	24%	12%
B	Arsenal	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	100%	69%	38%	20%	10%
D	Inter	< 1%	< 1%	41%	59%	100%	58%	30%	14%	7%
H	Barcelona	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	>99.99%	100%	63%	30%	13%	6%
E	Atletico	< 1%	< 1%	19%	81%	100%	57%	26%	11%	5.0%
F	Dortmund	< 1%	< 1%	27%	73%	100%	53%	22%	8%	3.7%
C	Napoli	< 1%	3.5%	96.5%	< 1%	96.5%	40%	19%	8%	3.7%
G	RB Leipzig	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	100%	41%	17%	6%	2.8%
D	Sociedad	< 1%	< 1%	59%	41%	100%	39%	14%	4.7%	2.1%
F	Paris SG	< 1%	51%	22%	27%	49%	23%	10%	3.5%	1.6%
F	Newcastle	24%	37%	39%	< 1%	39%	17%	8%	3.4%	1.6%
H	Porto	< 1%	11%	89%	< 1%	89%	28%	10%	3.3%	1.5%
E	Lazio	< 1%	< 1%	81%	19%	100%	29%	9%	2.4%	1.1%
B	PSV	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	100%	28%	9%	2.4%	1.0%
A	Galatasaray	21%	42%	36%	< 1%	36%	7%	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%
F	Milan	76%	12%	12%	< 1%	12%	3.9%	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%
A	Man United	58%	34%	8%	< 1%	8%	3.1%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%
A	FC Kobenhavn	21%	24%	55%	< 1%	55%	7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
H	Shakhtar	< 1%	89%	11%	< 1%	11%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
C	Braga	14%	83%	3.5%	< 1%	3.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

 

Which country get extra CL spots

		Score
Country	Probability	Average	Min	Max
ENG	88%	20.85	13.13	27.75
GER	51%	18.7	13.36	26.5
ITA	40%	18.33	12	26.86
ESP	13%	17.03	12.06	24.06
FRA	6%	15.65	9.08	24.92
BEL	1.6%	14.64	9	23.6
TUR	< 1%	13.82	9	21
CZE	< 1%	12.48	7.5	22.25
NED	< 1%	11.49	7.6	22
GRE	< 1%	10.59	6.6	20
POR	< 1%	9.53	5.5	18

 

CL: Open between Newcastle and Paris SG after last-minute penalty.

Groups E and G are done and in Group F Dortmund have clinched a place in the knockout stage.

Group E			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
5	11	Atletico	13	(12-14)	< 1%	< 1%	19%	81%	100%
5	10	Lazio	10.8	(10-11)	< 1%	< 1%	81%	19%	100%
5	6	Feyenoord	7.5	(6-9)	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
5	1	Celtic	2.2	(1-4)	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group F			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
5	10	Dortmund	11.7	(10-13)	< 1%	< 1%	27%	73%	100%
5	7	Paris SG	8	(7-10)	< 1%	51%	22%	27%	49%
5	5	Newcastle	6.8	(6-8)	24%	37%	39%	< 1%	39%
5	5	Milan	5.9	(5-6)	76%	12%	12%	< 1%	12%

Paris clinch knockout stage if they beat Dortmund, if Newcastle and Milan draw, or if they draw Dortmund and Milan beat Newcastle.

Newcastle clinch knockout stage if they beat Milan (at home) and Paris do not beat Dortmund.

Milan clinch knockout stage if the beat Newcastle (away) and Dortmund beat Paris SG.

Group G			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
5	15	Man City	17.5	(18-18)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	100%
5	9	RB Leipzig	11.4	(10-12)	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	100%
5	4	Young Boys	4.5	(4-5)	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
5	1	Crvena Zvezda	1.4	(1-1)	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group H			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
5	12	Barcelona	14	(13-15)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	>99.99%	100%
5	9	Porto	11.4	(10-12)	< 1%	11%	89%	< 1%	89%
5	9	Shakhtar	9.5	(9-10)	< 1%	89%	11%	< 1%	11%
5	0	Antwerp	0.8	(0-1)	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Porto clinch knockout stage if the at least draw (at home) against Shakhtar. Shakhtar need to win against Porto to reach the knockout stage.

		Chance in Group				Stage-by-stage Probabilities
Group	Team	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	Last 16	Quarter	Semi	Final	Champ
G	Man City	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	100%	86%	67%	51%	30%
A	Bayern	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	100%	72%	43%	24%	12%
C	Real Madrid	< 1%	< 1%	4.7%	95.3%	100%	72%	42%	23%	11%
B	Arsenal	< 1%	1.2%	5%	93%	98.8%	67%	37%	19%	9%
D	Inter	< 1%	< 1%	36%	64%	100%	59%	30%	14%	7%
H	Barcelona	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	>99.99%	100%	62%	30%	13%	6%
E	Atletico	< 1%	< 1%	19%	81%	100%	56%	26%	11%	5.0%
F	Dortmund	< 1%	< 1%	27%	73%	100%	53%	22%	8%	3.7%
C	Napoli	< 1%	5%	90%	4.7%	95%	41%	19%	8%	3.7%
G	RB Leipzig	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	100%	41%	17%	6%	2.8%
D	Sociedad	< 1%	< 1%	64%	36%	100%	38%	14%	4.6%	2.1%
F	Paris SG	< 1%	51%	22%	27%	49%	23%	9%	3.5%	1.6%
F	Newcastle	24%	37%	39%	< 1%	39%	18%	8%	3.4%	1.6%
H	Porto	< 1%	11%	89%	< 1%	89%	28%	10%	3.4%	1.5%
E	Lazio	< 1%	< 1%	81%	19%	100%	29%	9%	2.4%	1.1%
A	Man United	39%	34%	28%	< 1%	28%	11%	3.9%	1.3%	< 1%
B	PSV	18%	35%	44%	3.3%	48%	14%	4.2%	1.2%	< 1%
B	Lens	25%	40%	31%	3.4%	35%	9%	2.3%	< 1%	< 1%
A	Galatasaray	24%	35%	41%	< 1%	41%	8%	1.9%	< 1%	< 1%
F	Milan	76%	12%	12%	< 1%	12%	4.0%	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%
B	Sevilla	57%	24%	19%	< 1%	19%	3.9%	1.0%	< 1%	< 1%
A	FC Kobenhavn	37%	31%	32%	< 1%	32%	3.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
H	Shakhtar	< 1%	89%	11%	< 1%	11%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
C	Braga	27%	67%	5%	< 1%	5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%