Euro: Crucial match between Israel and Romania

Twelve countries have qualified and another three have more than 99%.

 

Ranking

The ranking decides the seeding of the Euro Finals
The ranking is decided by group position, higher number of points, superior goal difference etc.

		Probabilities								Average Outcome
Group	Country	Euro	Playoff	2nd	1st	Pot 4	Pot 3	Pot 2	Pot 1	Rank	Grp Rnk	Pts	GD
J	Portugal	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	2.1	1	23.7	28.8
B	France	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	99.94%	3.3	1	23	18.5
C	England	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	>99.99%	4.2	1	21.2	20.3
A	Spain	100%	< 1%	2.7%	97.3%	< 1%	2.5%	2.2%	95.3%	4.9	1	20.6	20.4
F	Belgium	100%	< 1%	5%	95%	< 1%	3.6%	1.7%	95%	6	1.1	19.9	16.8
H	Denmark	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	97.2%	2.8%	7.7	1	18.4	7.7
G	Hungary	100%	< 1%	7%	93%	2.8%	4.4%	93%	< 1%	9	1.1	17.5	8.9
E	Albania	100%	< 1%	9%	91%	7%	2.5%	91%	< 1%	10	1.1	16.4	9.7
F	Austria	100%	< 1%	95%	5%	< 1%	26%	70%	4.5%	11.9	1.9	19	10
I	Switzerland	99.3%	1.3%	18%	81%	18%	< 1%	81%	< 1%	12.2	1.2	14.8	11.6
D	Turkey	100%	< 1%	49%	51%	2.0%	46%	51%	< 1%	12.7	1.5	16.8	6
A	Scotland	100%	< 1%	97.3%	2.7%	< 1%	69%	29%	2.4%	13.4	2	17.7	9.6
B	Netherlands	99.96%	< 1%	99.90%	< 1%	2.4%	96.7%	< 1%	< 1%	14	2	17.5	9.9
G	Serbia	99.79%	< 1%	92%	7%	12%	80%	7%	< 1%	15.5	1.9	15.6	8.4
H	Slovenia	90%	1.1%	90%	< 1%	14%	76%	< 1%	< 1%	17.6	2.1	15.4	5.8
E	Czechia	98.2%	2.3%	88%	9%	45%	44%	9%	< 1%	17.8	1.9	14.8	7.3
D	Croatia	79%	47%	37%	16%	30%	32%	16%	< 1%	18.3	2.3	15.4	11.3
C	Italy	87%	30%	70%	< 1%	32%	55%	< 1%	< 1%	18.5	2.3	14.6	7.4
D	Wales	65%	53%	14%	32%	27%	6%	32%	< 1%	18.7	2.2	14.1	2.2
J	Slovakia	100%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	78%	22%	< 1%	< 1%	19.4	2	13.9	3.3
I	Romania	62%	< 1%	43%	19%	43%	< 1%	19%	< 1%	20.5	2.2	11.8	1.4
C	Ukraine	58%	69%	30%	< 1%	31%	28%	< 1%	< 1%	22.1	2.7	14.1	1.6
I	Israel	52%	61%	38%	< 1%	51%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	23.2	2.7	10.7	-1.4
E	Poland	36%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	36%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	23.9	3	11	-1
H	Kazakhstan	13%	90%	10%	< 1%	8%	4.6%	< 1%	< 1%	24.3	3.6	12.5	-1.8
B	Greece	51%	99.90%	< 1%	< 1%	51%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	24.5	3	12.8	5
H	Finland	22%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	22%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	24.6	3.3	12	1
A	Georgia	42%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	42%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	24.6	4	8.3	-6.4
J	Bosnia and Herzegovina	18%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	18%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	24.6	4.3	4.8	-12.3
A	Norway	16%	57%	< 1%	< 1%	16%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	24.7	3	11	1.4
E	Moldova	2.3%	< 1%	2.3%	< 1%	2.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	24.9	4	9.1	-4.3
B	Ireland	2.1%	11%	< 1%	< 1%	2.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	25	4	6.3	-2.3
J	Luxembourg	4.1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	4.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	25	3	11	-9
G	Montenegro	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	25	3	11.4	-1.9
F	Estonia	< 1%	98.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	25	5	1.3	-20.1
D	Armenia	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	25	4	7.9	-5.1
I	Kosovo	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	25	4.1	8.3	-3.5
D	Latvia	< 1%	67%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	25	5	3.3	-14.4
F	Azerbaijan	< 1%	10%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	25	4	7.1	-8.8

 

Tonight we have a big game in Group I between Israel and Romania, where Romania can clinch qualifications with a point. At the same time, Switzerland can clinch qualifications against Kosovo.

Israel vs Romania (84.8%)	Home Win (51%)	Draw (23%)	Away Win (26%)
Romania	27%	100%	100%
Israel	81%	21%	21%

Switzerland vs Kosovo (3.8%)	Home Win (86%)	Draw (9%)	Away Win (5%)
Switzerland	100%	95.8%	92%
Kosovo	< 1%	< 1%	7%

	Probabilities			Point					GD
Country	At least Playoff	At least Second	Group Winner	Min	25%	Average	75%	Max	Average
Switzerland	100%	98.7%	81%	16	20	20.7	22	22	15.7
Romania	62%	62%	19%	16	16	17.7	19	22	7.3
Israel	100%	39%	< 1%	12	15	16.3	18	18	1.7
Kosovo	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	10	11	12.3	13	16	-0.6
Belarus	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	6	9	9.3	10	12	-6
Andorra	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2	2	2.7	3	8	-18.1

Switzerland clinch Euro 24 if they win against Kosovo (86%)
Romania clinch Euro 24 if they draw (or win) against Israel (49%)

 

In Group D, Croatia and Wales are fighting over the second spot. Croatia need to take more points than Wales in the last two games and tonight's games are obviously a crucial part of that race. Wales play Turkey in the last round when Croatia play Armenia.

Armenia vs Wales (19.7%)	Home Win (17%)	Draw (20%)	Away Win (64%)
Wales	37%	45%	79%
Croatia	97.0%	93%	70%
Armenia	2.6%	< 1%	< 1%

Latvia vs Croatia (3.8%)	Home Win (6%)	Draw (11%)	Away Win (84%)
Wales	91%	78%	62%
Croatia	60%	70%	81%

	Probabilities			Point					GD
Country	At least Playoff	At least Second	Group Winner	Min	25%	Average	75%	Max	Average
Turkey	100%	100%	52%	16	16	16.8	17	19	6
Wales	99.99%	47%	32%	10	13	14.1	16	16	2.2
Croatia	100%	53%	16%	10	14	15.4	16	16	11.3
Armenia	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	7	7	7.9	8	13	-5.1
Latvia	67%	< 1%	< 1%	3	3	3.3	3	6	-14.4

Turkey clinch at least pot 3 if Ireland win against Netherlands (6%)
Wales clinch at least playoff if they win against Armenia and Israel draw against Romania (15%)

 

Clinch Scenarios

• France clinch pot 1 if they win against Gibraltar (99%)
• Switzerland clinch Euro 24 if they win against Kosovo (86%)
• Netherlands clinch Euro 24 if they win against Ireland (83%)
• Czechia clinch at least playoff if Netherlands win against Ireland and Switzerland win against Kosovo (71%)
• Romania clinch Euro 24 if they draw (or win) against Israel (49%)
• Turkey clinch at least pot 3 if Ireland win against Netherlands (6%)
• Scotland clinch at least pot 3 if Ireland win against Netherlands (6%)

Playoff teams are selected in each of League A, B and C
from the best-ranked team not yet qualified (in Top 2).
If one of those leagues have fewer than four non-qualified
teams, those spots are taken by League D group winners
(unless already qualified)

League A		Top 2	Playoff	At least Playoff	Home Advantage
B	Netherlands	99.91%	< 1%	100%	< 1%
D	Croatia	53%	47%	100%	47%
A	Spain	100%		100%
C	Italy	70%	30%	100%	30%
H	Denmark	100%		100%
J	Portugal	100%		100%
F	Belgium	100%		100%
G	Hungary	100%		100%
I	Switzerland	98.7%	1.3%	100%	1.1%
	Germany
E	Poland		>99.99%	>99.99%	85%
B	France	100%		100%
F	Austria	100%		100%
E	Czechia	97.7%	2.3%	>99.99%	< 1%
C	England	100%		100%
D	Wales	47%	53%	99.99%	36%
League B		Top 2	Playoff	At least Playoff	Home Advantage
I	Israel	39%	61%	100%	61%
J	Bosnia and Herzegovina		100%	100%	100%
G	Serbia	99.55%	< 1%	100%	< 1%
A	Scotland	100%		100%
H	Finland		100%	100%	38%
C	Ukraine	30%	69%	99.81%
E	Albania	100%		100%
A	Norway		57%	57%
H	Slovenia	90%	1.2%	91%
B	Ireland		11%	11%
J	Iceland
G	Montenegro	< 1%		< 1%
I	Romania	62%		62%
F	Sweden
D	Armenia	< 1%		< 1%
League C		Top 2	Playoff	At least Playoff	Home Advantage
A	Georgia		100%	100%	100%
B	Greece	< 1%	99.91%	100%	99.91%
D	Turkey	100%		100%
H	Kazakhstan	10%	90%	100%	< 1%
J	Luxembourg		100%	100%	< 1%
F	Azerbaijan		10%	10%
I	Kosovo	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
G	Bulgaria
E	Faroe Islands
C	North Macedonia
J	Slovakia	100%		100%
H	Northern Ireland
A	Cyprus
I	Belarus
G	Lithuania
B	Gibraltar
League D		Top 2	Playoff	At least Playoff	Home Advantage
F	Estonia		98.7%	98.7%
D	Latvia		67%	67%
E	Moldova	2.3%		2.3%
C	Malta
I	Andorra
H	San Marino
J	Liechtenstein