Euro: Group G being decided between Serbia and Montenegro

Clinch Scenarios

• Serbia clinch Euro 24 if they draw (or win) against Bulgaria (95%)
• Ukraine clinch at least playoff if Serbia draw (or win) against Bulgaria (95%)
• Belgium clinch pot 1 if they win against Azerbaijan (95%)
• Spain clinch at least pot 2 if they draw (or win) against Georgia (95%)
• Hungary clinch at least pot 2 if they draw (or win) against Montenegro (91%)
• Turkey clinch at least pot 3 if Bosnia and Herzegovina draw (or win) against Slovakia (76%)
• Scotland clinch at least pot 3 if Bosnia and Herzegovina draw (or win) against Slovakia (76%)
• Austria clinch at least pot 2 if Norway draw (or win) against Scotland (49%)
• Netherlands clinch at least pot 3 if Bosnia and Herzegovina draw (or win) against Slovakia and Bulgaria draw (or win) against Serbia (12%)
• Slovakia clinch at least pot 3 if they win against Bosnia and Herzegovina and Bulgaria draw (or win) against Serbia (4%)
  
  

Tonight the most interesting matches are in Group G:

Serbia - Bulgaria

Hungary - Montenegro

Montenegro steal the 2nd spot from Serbia if Montenegro win and Bulgaria beat Serbia.

Group G

	Probabilities			Point					GD
Country	At least Playoff	At least Second	Group Winner	Min	25%	Average	75%	Max	Average
Hungary	100%	100%	93%	15	18	17.5	18	18	8.9
Serbia	100%	99.6%	7%	13	16	15.6	16	16	8.5
Montenegro	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	11	11	11.4	11	14	-1.9
Lithuania	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	6	6	6	6	6	-6
Bulgaria	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	3	3	3.3	3	6	-9.5

Hungary clinch at least pot 2 if they draw (or win) against Montenegro (92%)
Serbia clinch Euro 24 if they draw (or win) against Bulgaria (95%)

 

Playoff teams are selected in each of League A, B and C
from the best-ranked team not yet qualified (in Top 2).
If one of those leagues have fewer than four non-qualified
teams, those spots are taken by League D group winners
(unless already qualified)

League A		Top 2	Playoff	At least Playoff	Home Advantage
B	Netherlands	100%		100%
D	Croatia	93%	7%	100%	7%
A	Spain	100%		100%
C	Italy	70%	30%	100%	30%
H	Denmark	100%		100%
J	Portugal	100%		100%
F	Belgium	100%		100%
G	Hungary	100%		100%
I	Switzerland	100%		100%
	Germany
E	Poland		100%	100%	98.0%
B	France	100%		100%
F	Austria	100%		100%
E	Czechia	97.7%	2.3%	100%	1.5%
C	England	100%		100%
D	Wales	7%	93%	100%	64%
League B		Top 2	Playoff	At least Playoff	Home Advantage
I	Israel		100%	100%	100%
J	Bosnia and Herzegovina		100%	100%	100%
G	Serbia	99.6%	< 1%	100%
A	Scotland	100%		100%
H	Finland		100%	100%
C	Ukraine	30%	70%	99.7%
E	Albania	100%		100%
A	Norway		30%	30%
H	Slovenia	90%		90%
B	Ireland
J	Iceland
G	Montenegro	< 1%		< 1%
I	Romania	100%		100%
F	Sweden
D	Armenia
League C		Top 2	Playoff	At least Playoff	Home Advantage
A	Georgia		100%	100%	100%
B	Greece		100%	100%	100%
D	Turkey	100%		100%
H	Kazakhstan	10%	90%	100%
J	Luxembourg		100%	100%
F	Azerbaijan		10%	10%
I	Kosovo
G	Bulgaria
E	Faroe Islands
C	North Macedonia
J	Slovakia	100%		100%
H	Northern Ireland
A	Cyprus
I	Belarus
G	Lithuania
B	Gibraltar
League D		Top 2	Playoff	At least Playoff	Home Advantage
F	Estonia		99.3%	99.3%
D	Latvia		68%	68%
E	Moldova	2.3%		2.3%
C	Malta
I	Andorra
H	San Marino
J	Liechtenstein