Euro: Three deciding matches tonight

Three big deciders tonight. In Group C Ukraine and Italy play and Ukraine steal the qualifications if they win. The match also affect other teams such Wales and Poland as detailed below, as they prefer to avoid Italy in the playoff. Similarly, Norway need Ukraine to take the direct spot in order to get a place in the playoff.

In Group H, Kazakhstan can steal the qualification if they beat Slovenia. Similar situation in Group E, where Moldova can steal the qualifications from Czechia with a win.

Group H

Slovenia vs Kazakhstan (85.4%)	Home Win (75%)	Draw (15%)	Away Win (10%)
Slovenia	100%	100%	< 1%
Kazakhstan	3.1%	3.0%	100%

Group C

Ukraine vs Italy (82.4%)	Home Win (30%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (46%)
Ukraine	100%	42%	42%
Italy	63%	100%	100%
Norway	32%	< 1%	< 1%
Wales	16%	50%	50%
Poland	25%	50%	50%

Group E

Czechia vs Moldova (26.6%)	Home Win (92%)	Draw (6%)	Away Win (2%)
Moldova	< 1%	< 1%	100%
Czechia	100%	100%	29%

 

Clinch Scenarios

• Estonia clinch at least playoff if Czechia draw (or win) against Moldova (98%)
• Czechia clinch Euro 24 if they draw (or win) against Moldova (98%)
• Slovenia clinch Euro 24 if they draw (or win) against Kazakhstan (90%)
• Albania clinch at least pot 2 if they draw (or win) against Faroe Islands (90%)
• England clinch pot 1 if they draw (or win) against North Macedonia (85%)
• Italy clinch Euro 24 if they draw (or win) against Ukraine (70%)
• Latvia clinch at least playoff if Czechia draw (or win) against Moldova and Italy draw (or win) against Ukraine (68%)
• Ukraine clinch at least pot 3 if they win against Italy (30%)
• Norway clinch at least playoff if Ukraine win against Italy (30%)
• Netherlands clinch at least pot 3 if Ukraine draw against Italy (24%)
• Kazakhstan clinch Euro 24 if they win against Slovenia (10%)
• Azerbaijan clinch at least playoff if Kazakhstan win against Slovenia (10%)
• Moldova clinch Euro 24 if they win against Czechia (2%)
• Serbia clinch at least pot 3 if Moldova draw (or win) against Czechia and Slovenia draw against Kazakhstan (1%)

Playoff teams are selected in each of League A, B and C
from the best-ranked team not yet qualified (in Top 2).
If one of those leagues have fewer than four non-qualified
teams, those spots are taken by League D group winners
(unless already qualified)

League A		Top 2	Playoff	At least Playoff	Home Advantage
B	Netherlands	100%		100%
D	Croatia	93%	7%	100%	7%
A	Spain	100%		100%
C	Italy	70%	30%	100%	30%
H	Denmark	100%		100%
J	Portugal	100%		100%
F	Belgium	100%		100%
G	Hungary	100%		100%
I	Switzerland	100%		100%
	Germany
E	Poland		100%	100%	98.0%
B	France	100%		100%
F	Austria	100%		100%
E	Czechia	97.7%	2.3%	100%	1.5%
C	England	100%		100%
D	Wales	7%	93%	100%	63%
League B		Top 2	Playoff	At least Playoff	Home Advantage
I	Israel		100%	100%	100%
J	Bosnia and Herzegovina		100%	100%	100%
G	Serbia	100%		100%
A	Scotland	100%		100%
H	Finland		100%	100%
C	Ukraine	30%	70%	100%
E	Albania	100%		100%
A	Norway		30%	30%
H	Slovenia	90%		90%
B	Ireland
J	Iceland
G	Montenegro
I	Romania	100%		100%
F	Sweden
D	Armenia
League C		Top 2	Playoff	At least Playoff	Home Advantage
A	Georgia		100%	100%	100%
B	Greece		100%	100%	100%
D	Turkey	100%		100%
H	Kazakhstan	10%	90%	100%
J	Luxembourg		100%	100%
F	Azerbaijan		10%	10%
I	Kosovo
G	Bulgaria
E	Faroe Islands
C	North Macedonia
J	Slovakia	100%		100%
H	Northern Ireland
A	Cyprus
I	Belarus
G	Lithuania
B	Gibraltar
League D		Top 2	Playoff	At least Playoff	Home Advantage
F	Estonia		99.3%	99.3%
D	Latvia		68%	68%
E	Moldova	2.3%		2.3%
C	Malta
I	Andorra
H	San Marino
J	Liechtenstein

Ranking

The ranking decides the seeding of the Euro Finals
The ranking is decided by group position, higher number of points, superior goal difference etc.

		Probabilities								Average Outcome
Group	Country	Euro	Playoff	2nd	1st	Pot 4	Pot 3	Pot 2	Pot 1	Rank	Grp Rnk	Pts	GD
J	Portugal	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	2.2	1	24	28
B	France	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	2.9	1	23	27
C	England	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	>99.99%	4.4	1	21.2	20.3
A	Spain	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	4.7	1	21	20
F	Belgium	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	5.9	1	20	18
H	Denmark	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	>99.99%	< 1%	7.7	1	18.4	7.7
G	Hungary	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	7.9	1	18	9
E	Albania	100%	< 1%	10%	90%	8%	1.5%	90%	< 1%	10.1	1.1	16.4	9.7
F	Austria	100%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	12	2	19	10
D	Turkey	100%	< 1%	53%	47%	< 1%	53%	47%	< 1%	12.9	1.5	16.8	6
D	Croatia	97.0%	7%	40%	53%	7%	37%	53%	< 1%	12.9	1.5	15.7	10.9
B	Netherlands	100%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	99.74%	< 1%	< 1%	13.1	2	17.9	8.6
A	Scotland	100%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	14	2	17	9
I	Switzerland	100%	< 1%	38%	62%	38%	< 1%	62%	< 1%	14.8	1.4	13.1	9.1
J	Slovakia	100%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	16.8	2	16	5
I	Romania	100%	< 1%	62%	38%	62%	< 1%	38%	< 1%	17.1	1.6	13.7	2.9
H	Slovenia	90%	< 1%	90%	< 1%	15%	75%	< 1%	< 1%	17.5	2.1	15.4	5.8
E	Czechia	98.4%	2.3%	88%	10%	48%	41%	10%	< 1%	17.8	1.9	14.8	7.3
C	Italy	89%	30%	70%	< 1%	34%	54%	< 1%	< 1%	18.5	2.3	14.6	7.4
G	Serbia	100%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	96.5%	3.5%	< 1%	< 1%	19.7	2	14	6
C	Ukraine	60%	70%	30%	< 1%	29%	30%	< 1%	< 1%	22.1	2.7	14.1	1.6
D	Wales	40%	93%	7%	< 1%	39%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	23.7	2.9	13	1
E	Poland	42%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	42%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	23.7	3	11	-1
H	Kazakhstan	13%	90%	10%	< 1%	8%	4.4%	< 1%	< 1%	24.3	3.6	12.5	-1.8
B	Greece	51%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	51%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	24.5	3	12.8	5
I	Israel	21%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	21%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	24.6	3.1	9	-3
A	Georgia	42%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	42%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	24.6	4	8	-6
H	Finland	20%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	20%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	24.6	3.3	12	1
J	Bosnia and Herzegovina	19%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	19%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	24.6	5	3	-14
A	Norway	10%	30%	< 1%	< 1%	10%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	24.8	3	11	2
E	Moldova	2.3%	< 1%	2.3%	< 1%	2.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	24.9	4	9.1	-4.3
J	Luxembourg	4.1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	4.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	25	3	11	-9
F	Estonia	1.0%	99.3%	< 1%	< 1%	1.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	25	5	1	-20
D	Latvia	< 1%	68%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	25	5	3	-14
F	Azerbaijan	< 1%	10%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	25	4	7	-10