Euro: Will Croatia or Wales qualify from Group D?

Wales are two points behind Croatia, so they must win against Turkey and hope that Armenia manage to steal points from Croatia.

Group D

Croatia vs Armenia (12.3%)	Home Win (89%)	Draw (8%)	Away Win (3%)
Croatia	100%	77%	78%
Wales	47%	79%	79%

Group D

Wales vs Turkey (2.9%)	Home Win (60%)	Draw (21%)	Away Win (19%)
Croatia	95.8%	100%	100%
Wales	53%	47%	46%

Group D

	Probabilities			Point					GD
Country	At least Playoff	At least Second	Group Winner	Min	25%	Average	75%	Max	Average
Croatia	100%	93%	53%	13	16	15.7	16	16	10.9
Turkey	100%	100%	47%	16	16	16.8	17	19	6
Wales	100%	7%	< 1%	11	12	13	14	14	1
Armenia	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	8	8	8.2	8	11	-3.9
Latvia	100%	< 1%	< 1%	3	3	3	3	3	-14

Croatia clinch at least pot 3 if they win against Armenia (89%)
Turkey clinch at least pot 2 if they draw (or win) against Wales (40%)
Wales clinch Euro 24 if they win against Turkey and Armenia draw (or win) against Croatia (7%)

Clinch Scenarios

• Croatia clinch at least pot 3 if they win against Armenia (89%)
• Switzerland clinch at least pot 2 if they win against Romania (62%)
• Turkey clinch at least pot 2 if they draw (or win) against Wales (40%)
• Romania clinch at least pot 2 if they draw (or win) against Switzerland (38%)
• Wales clinch Euro 24 if they win against Turkey and Armenia draw (or win) against Croatia (7%)
• Serbia clinch at least pot 3 if Turkey draw (or win) against Wales and Armenia win against Croatia (1%)

 Apart from the question mark of whether Croatia or Wales will need playoff, the teams in the playoffs are decided. In League A: Poland, Wales/Croatia, Estonia, Latvia. League B: Israel, Bosnia, Finland and Ukraine. League C: Georgia, Greece, Kazakhstan, and Luxembourg.