Euro: Poland's last chance on top 2

In Group E, Poland need to beat Czechia to have a chance on top two and then they'll need help from Moldova taking point against Czechia in the last round.

Group E

Poland vs Czechia (2.4%)	Home Win (52%)	Draw (23%)	Away Win (26%)
Czechia	95%	99.3%	99.7%
Poland	40%	35%	35%

	Probabilities			Point					GD
Country	At least Playoff	At least Second	Group Winner	Min	25%	Average	75%	Max	Average
Albania	>99.99%	99.99%	90%	13	16	17.4	19	19	10.7
Czechia	>99.99%	95.5%	10%	11	14	14.8	15	17	6.7
Poland	>99.99%	4.0%	< 1%	10	10	11.8	13	13	-0.4
Moldova	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	8	8	8.9	9	14	-5.2
Faroe Islands	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	3	3	3.5	4	6	-11.7

Albania clinch Euro 24 if they draw (or win) against Moldova (81%)
Czechia clinch Euro 24 if they draw (or win) against Poland and Albania win against Moldova (29%)

 

In Group C, Italy need to beat North Macedonia to keep its advantage against Ukraine. The match affects Norway and Poland as well, as Norway get a place in the playoff if Ukraine finish top two - and Poland are happy to avoid Italy in the playoff.

Group C

Italy vs North Macedonia (2.1%)	Home Win (88%)	Draw (8%)	Away Win (4%)
Ukraine	58%	73%	73%
Italy	88%	78%	78%
Norway	16%	21%	21%
Poland	38%	32%	32%
Ireland	2.1%	3.8%	4%

	Probabilities			Point					GD
Country	At least Playoff	At least Second	Group Winner	Min	25%	Average	75%	Max	Average
England	100%	100%	100%	16	20	21.1	22	22	22.2
Italy	100%	67%	< 1%	10	13	14.3	16	16	7.1
Ukraine	99.81%	33%	< 1%	13	13	14.1	16	16	1.6
North Macedonia	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	7	7	7.8	8	13	-11
Malta	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	0	0	0.1	0	3	-19.9

 

 In Group H, the winner between Denmark and Slovenia win the group and are thereby guaranteed at least pot 2.

 Group H

	Probabilities			Point					GD
Country	At least Playoff	At least Second	Group Winner	Min	25%	Average	75%	Max	Average
Denmark	100%	99.72%	85%	19	23	23.9	25	25	13.8
Slovenia	92%	91%	15%	19	22	21.7	22	25	10.6
Kazakhstan	100%	9%	< 1%	15	18	18.3	18	21	5
Finland	100%	< 1%	< 1%	12	16	17.1	18	18	8.4
Northern Ireland	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	6	6	7.2	9	12	-4.9
San Marino	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	0	0	0.1	0	6	-32.9