Euro: Slovakia can clinch a spot in the finals in last-chance match for Iceland.

Tonight the most interesting matches are in Group J where Slovakia play Iceland and Luxembourg host Bosnia.

Slovakia vs Iceland (10.4%)	Home Win (51%)	Draw (23%)	Away Win (26%)
Slovakia	100%	100%	87%
Luxembourg	4.2%	4.1%	16%
Iceland	< 1%	< 1%	1.6%

Luxembourg vs Bosnia and Herzegovina (6.4%)	Home Win (30%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (47%)
Slovakia	89%	99.5%	99.5%
Luxembourg	14%	4.2%	4.1%

 

Group J

	Probabilities			Point					GD
Country	At least Playoff	At least Second	Group Winner	Min	25%	Average	75%	Max	Average
Portugal	100%	100%	100%	24	30	29.7	30	30	37.5
Slovakia	96.5%	96.5%	< 1%	16	17	18.7	20	22	5.9
Luxembourg	100%	3.1%	< 1%	11	14	14.5	15	17	-8.6
Bosnia and Herzegovina	100%	< 1%	< 1%	9	12	12.5	15	15	-5.9
Iceland	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	10	10	11.2	13	16	1.6
Liechtenstein	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	0	0	0.5	1	6	-30.5

Slovakia clinch Euro 24 if they draw (or win) against Iceland (74%)

 

In Group G, Hungary can secure a spot in the finals if they take a point against Bulgaria

Bulgaria vs Hungary (3.7%)	Home Win (18%)	Draw (20%)	Away Win (62%)
Montenegro	6%	< 1%	< 1%
Hungary	96.1%	100%	100%

	Probabilities			Point					GD
Country	At least Playoff	At least Second	Group Winner	Min	25%	Average	75%	Max	Average
Hungary	100%	99.0%	95.1%	14	17	18.5	20	20	10
Serbia	100%	99.65%	4.8%	13	16	15.6	16	16	8.5
Montenegro	1.4%	1.4%	< 1%	8	11	10.9	11	14	-1.9
Lithuania	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	6	6	6.4	6	9	-6
Bulgaria	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2	2	3	3	8	-10.6

Hungary clinch Euro 24 if they draw (or win) against Bulgaria (82%)
Serbia clinch Euro 24 if Lithuania draw (or win) against Montenegro (21%)

 

In the other groups there are many other clinching scenarios as detailed below.

Clinching Scenarios

• Spain clinch at least pot 3 if they draw (or win) against Cyprus (97%)
• Hungary clinch Euro 24 if they draw (or win) against Bulgaria (82%)
• Austria clinch at least pot 3 if they draw (or win) against Estonia (82%)
• Slovakia clinch Euro 24 if they draw (or win) against Iceland (74%)
• Scotland clinch at least pot 3 if they win against Georgia (37%)
• Serbia clinch Euro 24 if Lithuania draw (or win) against Montenegro (21%)
• Ukraine clinch at least playoff if Lithuania draw (or win) against Montenegro (21%)
• Belgium clinch at least pot 2 if Estonia win against Austria (18%)

Playoff teams are selected in each of League A, B and C
from the best-ranked team not yet qualified (in Top 2).
If one of those leagues have fewer than four non-qualified
teams, those spots are taken by League D group winners
(unless already qualified)

League A		Top 2	Playoff	At least Playoff	Home Advantage
B	Netherlands	99.91%	< 1%	100%	< 1%
D	Croatia	53%	47%	100%	47%
A	Spain	100%		100%
C	Italy	67%	33%	100%	33%
H	Denmark	99.70%	< 1%	100%	< 1%
J	Portugal	100%		100%
F	Belgium	100%		100%
G	Hungary	99.0%	1.0%	100%	< 1%
I	Switzerland	98.7%	1.3%	100%	1.1%
	Germany
E	Poland	3.9%	96.1%	>99.99%	80%
B	France	100%		100%
F	Austria	100%		100%
E	Czechia	95.5%	4.5%	>99.99%	3.5%
C	England	100%		100%
D	Wales	47%	53%	99.99%	34%
League B		Top 2	Playoff	At least Playoff	Home Advantage
I	Israel	39%	61%	100%	61%
J	Bosnia and Herzegovina		100%	100%	100%
G	Serbia	99.65%	< 1%	100%	< 1%
A	Scotland	100%		100%
H	Finland		100%	100%	38%
C	Ukraine	33%	66%	99.86%
E	Albania	99.99%	< 1%	>99.99%
A	Norway		59%	59%
H	Slovenia	91%	1.1%	92%
B	Ireland		12%	12%
J	Iceland	< 1%		< 1%
G	Montenegro	1.4%		1.4%
I	Romania	62%		62%
F	Sweden
D	Armenia	< 1%		< 1%
League C		Top 2	Playoff	At least Playoff	Home Advantage
A	Georgia		100%	100%	100%
B	Greece	< 1%	99.91%	100%	99.91%
D	Turkey	100%		100%
H	Kazakhstan	9%	91%	100%	< 1%
J	Luxembourg	3.1%	96.9%	100%	< 1%
F	Azerbaijan		12%	12%	< 1%
I	Kosovo	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
G	Bulgaria		< 1%	< 1%
E	Faroe Islands
C	North Macedonia
J	Slovakia	96.5%		96.5%
H	Northern Ireland
A	Cyprus
I	Belarus
G	Lithuania
B	Gibraltar
League D		Top 2	Playoff	At least Playoff	Home Advantage
F	Estonia		98.7%	98.7%
D	Latvia		64%	64%
E	Moldova	< 1%		< 1%
C	Malta
I	Andorra
H	San Marino
J	Liechtenstein