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Switzerland can clinch qualification with a win against Israel tonight.
Group I
| Israel vs Switzerland (6.8%) | Home Win (19%) | Draw (21%) | Away Win (60%) |
| Israel | 71% | 52% | 48% |
| Switzerland | 94% | 99.3% | 100% |
| Romania | 47% | 63% | 66% |
Group I
| Probabilities | Point | GD | ||||||||
| Country | At least Playoff | At least Second | Group Winner | Min | 25% | Average | 75% | Max | Average | |
| Switzerland | 100% | 97.8% | 85% | 15 | 21 | 21.7 | 24 | 24 | 16.6 | |
| Romania | 62% | 62% | 11% | 16 | 16 | 17.7 | 19 | 22 | 7.3 | |
| Israel | 100% | 40% | 3.8% | 11 | 15 | 16.1 | 17 | 20 | 0.7 | |
| Kosovo | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 10 | 11 | 12.3 | 13 | 16 | -0.6 | |
| Belarus | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 6 | 9 | 9.3 | 10 | 12 | -6 | |
| Andorra | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 2 | 2 | 2.7 | 3 | 8 | -18.1 | |
Playoff teams are selected in each of League A, B and C
from the best-ranked team not yet qualified (in Top 2).
If one of those leagues have fewer than four non-qualified
teams, those spots are taken by League D group winners
(unless already qualified)
| League A | Top 2 | Playoff | At least Playoff | Home Advantage | |
| B | Netherlands | 99.91% | < 1% | 100% | < 1% |
| D | Croatia | 53% | 47% | 100% | 47% |
| A | Spain | 100% | 100% | ||
| C | Italy | 67% | 33% | 100% | 33% |
| H | Denmark | 99.72% | < 1% | 100% | < 1% |
| J | Portugal | 100% | 100% | ||
| F | Belgium | 100% | 100% | ||
| G | Hungary | 99.0% | 1.0% | 100% | < 1% |
| I | Switzerland | 97.8% | 2.2% | 100% | 1.8% |
| Germany | |||||
| E | Poland | 3.9% | 96.1% | >99.99% | 79% |
| B | France | 100% | 100% | ||
| F | Austria | 100% | 100% | ||
| E | Czechia | 95.5% | 4.5% | >99.99% | 3.4% |
| C | England | 100% | 100% | ||
| D | Wales | 46% | 54% | 99.98% | 34% |
| League B | Top 2 | Playoff | At least Playoff | Home Advantage | |
| I | Israel | 40% | 60% | 100% | 60% |
| J | Bosnia and Herzegovina | 100% | 100% | 100% | |
| G | Serbia | 99.64% | < 1% | 100% | < 1% |
| A | Scotland | 100% | 100% | ||
| H | Finland | 100% | 100% | 40% | |
| C | Ukraine | 33% | 66% | 99.86% | |
| E | Albania | 99.99% | < 1% | >99.99% | |
| A | Norway | 60% | 60% | ||
| H | Slovenia | 91% | 1.1% | 92% | |
| B | Ireland | 12% | 12% | ||
| J | Iceland | < 1% | < 1% | ||
| G | Montenegro | 1.4% | 1.4% | ||
| I | Romania | 62% | 62% | ||
| F | Sweden | ||||
| D | Armenia | < 1% | < 1% | ||
| League C | Top 2 | Playoff | At least Playoff | Home Advantage | |
| A | Georgia | 100% | 100% | 100% | |
| B | Greece | < 1% | 99.91% | 100% | 99.91% |
| D | Turkey | 100% | 100% | ||
| H | Kazakhstan | 9% | 91% | 100% | < 1% |
| J | Luxembourg | 3.1% | 96.9% | 100% | < 1% |
| F | Azerbaijan | 12% | 12% | < 1% | |
| I | Kosovo | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | |
| G | Bulgaria | < 1% | < 1% | ||
| E | Faroe Islands | ||||
| C | North Macedonia | ||||
| J | Slovakia | 96.5% | 96.5% | ||
| H | Northern Ireland | ||||
| A | Cyprus | ||||
| I | Belarus | ||||
| G | Lithuania | ||||
| B | Gibraltar | ||||
| League D | Top 2 | Playoff | At least Playoff | Home Advantage | |
| F | Estonia | 98.4% | 98.4% | ||
| D | Latvia | 64% | 64% | ||
| E | Moldova | < 1% | < 1% | ||
| C | Malta | ||||
| I | Andorra | ||||
| H | San Marino | ||||
| J | Liechtenstein | ||||
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