Tuesday, April 30, 2024

CL: Semifinal 1 - Leg 1

 A draw in Bavaria and advantage Real Madrid in the first semi final.

Germany chances to win the 2nd CL bonus spot decreased slightly, but they only need a team in one of the finals to clinch the spot.


Champions League

TeamFinalChampion
Real Madrid66%40%
Paris SG55%23%
Bayern34%19%
Dortmund45%17%

 

 Which countries get extra CL spots



Score
CountryProbabilityAverageMinMax
ITA100%20.8919.5722.29
GER95.7%19.3418.2120.64
ENG4.3%18.3517.7518.63
Important factors
GER 100% if Leverkusen reaches the EL final; otherwise 88%
GER 100% if Dortmund reaches the CL final; otherwise 92%
GER 100% if Leverkusen wins the Europa League; otherwise 93%
GER 99.97% if Bayern reaches the CL final; otherwise 94%
ENG 6.8% if Aston Villa wins the Europa Conference League; otherwise 1.5%
GER 100% if Bayern wins the Champions League; otherwise 95%
GER 100% if Dortmund wins the Champions League; otherwise 95%
ENG 5.1% if Aston Villa reaches the ECL final; otherwise 0%
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Sunday, April 28, 2024

PL: A few remaining questions

 





Average Simulated
Season		Probabilities
PtsTeamPtsGDRelegatedTop 7Top 6Top 5Top 4Win LeagueECLELCL
79Man City87.7+55< 1%100%100%100%100%61%< 1%< 1%100%
80Arsenal86.3+61< 1%100%100%100%100%39%< 1%< 1%100%
75Liverpool80.9+44< 1%100%100%100%100%< 1%< 1%< 1%100%
67Aston Villa71.0+21< 1%100%100%100%86%< 1%< 1%13%87%
60Tottenham67.2+15< 1%99.98%99.76%96.9%14%< 1%< 1%83%17%
54Man United59.6+1< 1%84%50%1.4%< 1%< 1%25%63%< 1%
53Newcastle58.7+19< 1%82%42%1.5%< 1%< 1%48%34%< 1%
48Chelsea55.8+5< 1%31%8%< 1%< 1%< 1%23%7%< 1%
49West Ham52.7-10< 1%2.1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%2.3%< 1%< 1%
48Bournemouth51.0-10< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
44Brighton49.7-5< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
46Wolves48.7-10< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
43Fulham46.4-5< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
40Crystal Palace43.5-13< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
38Everton41.9-12< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
35Brentford39.2-8< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
26Forest29.7-2131%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
25Luton28.2-3176%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
21Burnley25.5-3793%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
16Sheffield United20.5-6299.92%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%

 

Arsenal win their remaining three matches in 24% of the simulations and in 81% of those simulations that is sufficient to win the league. The most likely outcome in the simulations is that Man City win three matches and draw one, finishing on 89 points; they do that in 21% of the simulations. Most likely outcome for Arsenal is that lose one match and win two, and that is good enough for the league title only in 32% of the simulations.

Important matches for title race
Arsenal vs Bournemouth (10.8%)Home Win (75%)Draw (15%)Away Win (10%)
Arsenal47%20%14%
Man City53%80%86%
Man City vs Wolves (10%)Home Win (79%)Draw (13%)Away Win (8%)
Man City67%39%30%
Arsenal33%61%70%



Man CityArsenal
pointsQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChance
9118%18%100%< 1%< 1%-
9018%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-
8940%21%77%24%24%81%
8859%19%76%24%< 1%-
8768%9%53%47%23%41%
8683%15%29%72%25%32%
8591%8%21%78%6%17%
8495%3.8%9%91%13%9%
8398.2%3.3%2.4%96.9%6%4.0%
Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points







Three important matches in the CL race the coming week. Villa are playing Brighton, Liverpool and Crystal Palace in the remaining matches, and the most likely outcome is a win, draw and a loss (not necessarily in the order). That would mean that they finish on 71 points, which is enough for a CL spot in 92% of those simulations.

Important matches for CL race
Chelsea vs Tottenham (8.3%)Home Win (43%)Draw (24%)Away Win (33%)
Aston Villa95%90%75%
Tottenham9%14%29%
Liverpool vs Tottenham (6.8%)Home Win (63%)Draw (20%)Away Win (17%)
Aston Villa92%86%70%
Tottenham12%18%34%
Brighton vs Aston Villa (6.2%)Home Win (42%)Draw (24%)Away Win (34%)
Aston Villa80%87%95.9%
Tottenham24%16%8%



Aston VillaTottenham
pointsQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChance
764.8%4.8%100%< 1%< 1%-
754.8%< 1%-< 1%< 1%95%
7414%10%99.4%< 1%< 1%-
7330%16%98.5%2.6%2.0%78%
7237%6%96.4%7%4.4%66%
7158%21%92%10%2.6%54%
7076%18%86%20%11%35%
6983%7%77%33%12%22%
6894%11%65%42%9%14%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Man United (63%) or Newcastle (34%) are likely taking the 2nd EL spot.

Important matches for EL race (EL or CL)
Crystal Palace vs Man United (6.2%)Home Win (37%)Draw (24%)Away Win (39%)
Man United51%59%75%
Newcastle43%37%25%
Chelsea10%8%4.6%
Burnley vs Newcastle (6%)Home Win (31%)Draw (24%)Away Win (45%)
Newcastle22%30%45%
Man United72%66%55%
Chelsea10%8%4.8%



Man UnitedNewcastleChelsea
pointsQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChance
662.1%2.1%100%< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-
652.1%< 1%-2.2%2.2%84%< 1%< 1%-
647%5%100%2.2%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-
6316%9%97.0%8%6%79%1.5%1.5%70%
6221%5%93%17%9%67%1.5%< 1%-
6137%16%84%22%5%70%6%4.1%49%
6052%15%68%39%17%50%12%6%29%
5962%10%56%55%15%31%16%4.5%16%
5878%16%42%65%10%27%29%13%9%
5789%10%31%80%16%11%41%12%3.1%
5693%4.8%26%90%10%4.3%52%11%1.1%
5598.2%4.8%24%94%4.4%2.3%67%16%< 1%
Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points



Important matches for Europe race (ECL, EL or CL)
Chelsea vs West Ham (12.2%)Home Win (49%)Draw (23%)Away Win (28%)
Chelsea43%23%14%
West Ham< 1%< 1%8%
Newcastle76%87%88%
Man United84%91%92%
Chelsea vs Tottenham (9.8%)Home Win (43%)Draw (24%)Away Win (33%)
Chelsea44%24%16%
Newcastle74%86%90%
Man United83%90%93%
Burnley vs Newcastle (7.4%)Home Win (31%)Draw (24%)Away Win (45%)
Newcastle69%79%92%
Chelsea39%32%23%
West Ham3.9%2.6%1.4%



Man UnitedNewcastleChelseaWest Ham
pointsQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChance
652.1%< 1%-2.2%2.2%100%< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-
647%5%100%2.2%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-
6316%9%99.96%8%6%100%1.5%1.5%98%< 1%< 1%-
6221%5%99.9%17%9%99.6%1.5%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-
6137%16%99.3%22%5%99.5%6%4.1%93%< 1%< 1%-
6052%15%96.9%39%17%97.4%12%6%83%< 1%< 1%-
5962%10%94%55%15%93%16%4.5%69%< 1%< 1%-
5878%16%85%65%10%89%29%13%58%1.8%1.8%47%
5789%10%73%80%16%74%41%12%37%1.8%< 1%-
5693%4.8%61%90%10%60%52%11%21%7%4.8%12%
5598.2%4.8%45%94%4.4%44%67%16%13%25%18%5%
54100%1.8%32%98.4%4.3%20%78%11%4.0%28%3.5%1.4%
Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points



Forest take om average 1.5 points more than Luton and clinch the new contract in 69% of the simulations.The table below shows the likely outcome for the two teams as well as Burnley, which are trailing a few points behind.

Important matches for avoiding relegation
Sheffield United vs Forest (15.4%)Home Win (40%)Draw (24%)Away Win (36%)
Forest53%66%87%
Luton36%27%9%
Burnley11%7%3.1%
Luton vs Everton (14.7%)Home Win (38%)Draw (24%)Away Win (37%)
Luton43%16%10%
Forest53%75%80%
Burnley3.8%8%9%



BurnleyLutonForest
pointsQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChance
35< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-3.8%3.8%100%
34< 1%< 1%-1.7%1.7%96%3.8%< 1%-
33< 1%< 1%98%1.7%< 1%-12%8%98.3%
32< 1%< 1%-6%4.7%73%26%14%97.7%
312.5%1.9%70%19%13%67%32%6%94%
308%5%51%23%3.9%46%53%21%79%
2910%2.4%23%43%20%25%72%19%69%
2822%12%11%66%23%17%80%7%52%
2737%15%3.2%73%7%4.8%92%13%24%
Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Saturday, April 27, 2024

PL: League race becomes two-horse race

Liverpool are out (<1%) of the title race after losing too much ground. The title race is thereby a two-horse race, which Man City win two of three times. They finish on average with 2.3 points more than Arsenal. The most common outcome in the simulations is that Man City take 13 points in the last five games and then Arsenal have to win their remaining four games, which happen in 9% of the simulations.

In the race for CL, Aston Villa lost some grounds with a draw against Chelsea. Tottenham are still trailing 2.5 points behind Villa in the average outcome, but both teams have difficult schedules and the outcome is therefore uncertain.

Behind them, Man United, Newcastle and to some degree Chelsea are fighting over the second EL spot. Man United have the advantage that they can snatch through a win in the FGA cup final against Man City. Otherwise, it's a tight race and 60 points or high 50s will likely be needed to finish top 6. Chelsea, Brighton and West Ham are outsiders lurking behind but are more likely having a chance for the Conference League spot. 




Average Simulated
Season		Probabilities
PtsTeamPtsGDRelegatedTop 7Top 6Top 5Top 4Win LeagueECLELCL
76Man City87.0+55< 1%100%100%100%100%68%< 1%< 1%100%
77Arsenal84.7+60< 1%100%100%100%100%31%< 1%< 1%100%
75Liverpool80.9+44< 1%100%100%100%>99.99%< 1%< 1%< 1%>99.99%
67Aston Villa71.0+21< 1%100%100%100%76%< 1%< 1%23%77%
60Tottenham68.5+16< 1%>99.99%99.88%98.3%24%< 1%< 1%73%27%
54Man United59.6+1< 1%83%50%< 1%< 1%< 1%25%62%< 1%
53Newcastle58.7+19< 1%81%42%< 1%< 1%< 1%47%34%< 1%
48Chelsea55.8+5< 1%31%8%< 1%< 1%< 1%23%7%< 1%
49West Ham52.7-10< 1%1.9%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%2.2%< 1%< 1%
44Brighton51.0-2< 1%3.0%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%2.6%< 1%< 1%
45Bournemouth49.4-13< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
46Wolves48.7-10< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
43Fulham46.4-5< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
40Crystal Palace43.5-13< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
38Everton41.9-12< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
35Brentford39.2-8< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
26Forest30.3-2026%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
25Luton28.2-3179%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
21Burnley25.5-3794%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
16Sheffield United20.5-6299.94%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%


Titles
TeamOne TitleTwo titlesThree titlesFour titlesDoubleTrebleQuadruple
Man City93%52%

52%

Arsenal31%





Liverpool100%< 1%




Aston Villa53%





Man United23%





Important matches for title race
Tottenham vs Arsenal (13.3%)Home Win (36%)Draw (24%)Away Win (40%)
Arsenal17%24%48%
Man City82%75%52%
Forest vs Man City (10%)Home Win (13%)Draw (17%)Away Win (70%)
Man City44%54%76%
Arsenal54%45%23%
Man City vs Wolves (7.5%)Home Win (79%)Draw (13%)Away Win (8%)
Man City74%51%41%
Arsenal26%47%57%
Arsenal vs Bournemouth (6.9%)Home Win (75%)Draw (15%)Away Win (10%)
Arsenal37%17%11%
Man City63%82%87%



Man CityArsenal
pointsQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChance
9113%13%100%< 1%< 1%-
9013%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-
8931%18%91%9%9%87%
8847%16%91%9%< 1%-
8756%10%76%24%15%53%
8673%17%58%43%19%43%
8583%10%49%51%8%27%
8489%6%29%70%19%17%
8395.0%6%13%83%13%8%
8297.6%2.6%9%89%6%4.0%
8198.9%1.3%2%95.8%7%1.4%
Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points



Important matches for CL race
Tottenham vs Arsenal (9.2%)Home Win (36%)Draw (24%)Away Win (40%)
Aston Villa63%81%88%
Tottenham41%23%16%
Chelsea vs Tottenham (9.1%)Home Win (43%)Draw (24%)Away Win (33%)
Aston Villa87%80%62%
Tottenham17%24%42%
Brighton vs Aston Villa (7.8%)Home Win (42%)Draw (24%)Away Win (34%)
Aston Villa67%77%90%
Tottenham36%27%14%
Liverpool vs Tottenham (7.1%)Home Win (63%)Draw (20%)Away Win (17%)
Aston Villa83%75%57%
Tottenham20%29%47%



Aston VillaTottenham
pointsQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChance
764.8%4.8%99.6%1.1%< 1%98%
754.8%< 1%-3.0%1.9%95%
7414%10%96.7%4.4%1.4%89%
7330%16%94%10%6%76%
7237%6%89%17%7%66%
7158%21%82%24%7%51%
7076%18%73%38%14%33%
6983%7%61%50%12%21%
6894%11%49%61%11%13%
Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points



Important matches for EL race (EL or CL)
Crystal Palace vs Man United (6.5%)Home Win (37%)Draw (24%)Away Win (39%)
Man United51%59%75%
Newcastle42%37%24%
Chelsea10%8%4.4%
Burnley vs Newcastle (5.9%)Home Win (31%)Draw (24%)Away Win (46%)
Newcastle21%30%44%
Man United71%65%55%
Chelsea10%8%4.7%



Man UnitedNewcastleChelsea
pointsQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChance
662.1%2.1%100%< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-
652.1%< 1%-2.2%2.2%81%< 1%< 1%-
647%5%100%2.2%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-
6316%9%96.9%8%6%77%1.5%1.5%68%
6221%5%93%17%9%66%1.5%< 1%-
6137%16%84%22%5%70%6%4.1%48%
6052%15%68%39%17%50%12%6%29%
5962%10%55%55%15%31%16%4.5%16%
5878%16%42%64%10%27%29%13%9%
5789%10%30%80%16%11%41%12%2.9%
5693%4.7%26%90%10%3.9%52%11%< 1%
5598.2%4.8%24%94%4.4%2.1%67%16%< 1%
Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points



Important matches for Europe race (ECL, EL or CL)
Chelsea vs West Ham (11.6%)Home Win (49%)Draw (23%)Away Win (28%)
Chelsea42%22%14%
West Ham< 1%< 1%7%
Newcastle75%86%87%
Man United83%90%92%
Chelsea vs Tottenham (9.6%)Home Win (43%)Draw (24%)Away Win (33%)
Chelsea44%23%16%
Newcastle73%85%89%
Man United82%90%92%
Burnley vs Newcastle (7.5%)Home Win (31%)Draw (24%)Away Win (46%)
Newcastle68%79%92%
Chelsea38%31%23%



Man UnitedNewcastleChelseaBrightonWest Ham
pointsQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChance
652.1%< 1%-2.2%2.2%100%< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-
647%5%100%2.2%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-
6316%9%99.97%8%6%100%1.5%1.5%98%< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-
6221%5%99.9%17%9%99.5%1.5%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-
6137%16%99.3%22%5%99.5%6%4.1%93%< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-
6052%15%96.9%39%17%97.4%12%6%83%< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-
5962%10%94%55%15%92%16%4.5%69%< 1%< 1%85%< 1%< 1%-
5878%16%85%64%10%89%29%13%58%< 1%< 1%-1.8%1.8%47%
5789%10%71%80%16%73%41%12%36%3.2%2.5%45%1.8%< 1%-
5693%4.7%59%90%10%56%52%11%20%7%4.1%18%7%4.7%11%
5598.2%4.8%43%94%4.4%41%67%16%11%11%3.1%9%25%18%4.4%
54100%1.8%30%98.4%4.3%16%78%11%3.4%21%10%1.6%28%3.5%1.1%
Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points



Important matches for avoiding relegation
Sheffield United vs Forest (13.5%)Home Win (40%)Draw (24%)Away Win (36%)
Forest60%72%90%
Luton31%22%8%
Burnley9%5%2.3%
Luton vs Everton (12.7%)Home Win (38%)Draw (24%)Away Win (37%)
Luton37%14%8%
Forest60%80%84%
Forest vs Man City (6.2%)Home Win (13%)Draw (17%)Away Win (70%)
Forest93%79%69%
Luton5%17%24%
Burnley1.5%4.0%7%



BurnleyLutonForest
pointsQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChance
36< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-2.2%1.7%100%
35< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-7%4.5%100%
34< 1%< 1%-1.7%1.7%91%9%2.2%100%
33< 1%< 1%92%1.7%< 1%-20%11%98.2%
32< 1%< 1%-6%4.6%66%33%14%97.7%
312.5%1.9%62%19%13%58%42%9%93%
308%5%42%23%3.9%37%61%19%79%
2910%2.3%20%43%20%20%77%16%69%
2822%12%8%66%23%13%84%7%51%
2737%15%2.2%73%7%3.2%95%10%23%
Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points




EuropeEL (or CL)CL
Fourth team100%100%100%
Fifth team100%100%3.9%
FA cup winners100%100%77%
League cup winners100%100%>99.99%
Sixth team100%89%< 1%
Seventh team96.2%11%< 1%
Eighth team7%3.6%< 1%


Simulated points for winner: 86 - 89
Simulated points for fourth: 70 - 73
Simulated points for 17th team: 29 - 32

Coming Matches
Home
Draw
Away
Sheffield United43%24%33%Burnley
Tottenham36%24%40%Arsenal
Bournemouth42%24%34%Brighton
Forest13%17%70%Man City
Chelsea43%24%33%Tottenham
Luton38%24%37%Everton
Arsenal75%15%10%Bournemouth
Burnley31%24%46%Newcastle
Sheffield United40%24%36%Forest
Brentford46%24%30%Fulham
Man City79%13%8%Wolves
Chelsea49%23%28%West Ham
Brighton42%24%34%Aston Villa
Liverpool63%20%17%Tottenham
Crystal Palace37%24%39%Man United


Most likely combo of teams in CL
73%Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City
23%Arsenal, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham
3.8%Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham

Most likely combo of teams being relegated
74%Burnley, Luton, Sheffield United
21%Burnley, Forest, Sheffield United
6%Forest, Luton, Sheffield United

 

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