PL: A few remaining questions

 

Average Simulated Season

Probabilities

Pts

Team

Pts

GD

Relegated

Top 7

Top 6

Top 5

Top 4

Win League

ECL

EL

CL

79

Man City

87.7

+55

< 1%

100%

100%

100%

100%

61%

< 1%

< 1%

100%

80

Arsenal

86.3

+61

< 1%

100%

100%

100%

100%

39%

< 1%

< 1%

100%

75

Liverpool

80.9

+44

< 1%

100%

100%

100%

100%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

100%

67

Aston Villa

71.0

+21

< 1%

100%

100%

100%

86%

< 1%

< 1%

13%

87%

60

Tottenham

67.2

+15

< 1%

99.98%

99.76%

96.9%

14%

< 1%

< 1%

83%

17%

54

Man United

59.6

+1

< 1%

84%

50%

1.4%

< 1%

< 1%

25%

63%

< 1%

53

Newcastle

58.7

+19

< 1%

82%

42%

1.5%

< 1%

< 1%

48%

34%

< 1%

48

Chelsea

55.8

+5

< 1%

31%

8%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

23%

7%

< 1%

49

West Ham

52.7

-10

< 1%

2.1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

2.3%

< 1%

< 1%

48

Bournemouth

51.0

-10

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

44

Brighton

49.7

-5

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

46

Wolves

48.7

-10

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

43

Fulham

46.4

-5

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

40

Crystal Palace

43.5

-13

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

38

Everton

41.9

-12

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

35

Brentford

39.2

-8

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

26

Forest

29.7

-21

31%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

25

Luton

28.2

-31

76%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

21

Burnley

25.5

-37

93%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

16

Sheffield United

20.5

-62

99.92%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

 

Arsenal win their remaining three matches in 24% of the simulations and in 81% of those simulations that is sufficient to win the league. The most likely outcome in the simulations is that Man City win three matches and draw one, finishing on 89 points; they do that in 21% of the simulations. Most likely outcome for Arsenal is that lose one match and win two, and that is good enough for the league title only in 32% of the simulations.

Important matches for title race
Arsenal vs Bournemouth (10.8%)	Home Win (75%)	Draw (15%)	Away Win (10%)
Arsenal	47%	20%	14%
Man City	53%	80%	86%
Man City vs Wolves (10%)	Home Win (79%)	Draw (13%)	Away Win (8%)
Man City	67%	39%	30%
Arsenal	33%	61%	70%

	Man City			Arsenal
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
91	18%	18%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-
90	18%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
89	40%	21%	77%	24%	24%	81%
88	59%	19%	76%	24%	< 1%	-
87	68%	9%	53%	47%	23%	41%
86	83%	15%	29%	72%	25%	32%
85	91%	8%	21%	78%	6%	17%
84	95%	3.8%	9%	91%	13%	9%
83	98.2%	3.3%	2.4%	96.9%	6%	4.0%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Three important matches in the CL race the coming week. Villa are playing Brighton, Liverpool and Crystal Palace in the remaining matches, and the most likely outcome is a win, draw and a loss (not necessarily in the order). That would mean that they finish on 71 points, which is enough for a CL spot in 92% of those simulations.

Important matches for CL race
Chelsea vs Tottenham (8.3%)	Home Win (43%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (33%)
Aston Villa	95%	90%	75%
Tottenham	9%	14%	29%
Liverpool vs Tottenham (6.8%)	Home Win (63%)	Draw (20%)	Away Win (17%)
Aston Villa	92%	86%	70%
Tottenham	12%	18%	34%
Brighton vs Aston Villa (6.2%)	Home Win (42%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (34%)
Aston Villa	80%	87%	95.9%
Tottenham	24%	16%	8%

	Aston Villa			Tottenham
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
76	4.8%	4.8%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-
75	4.8%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	95%
74	14%	10%	99.4%	< 1%	< 1%	-
73	30%	16%	98.5%	2.6%	2.0%	78%
72	37%	6%	96.4%	7%	4.4%	66%
71	58%	21%	92%	10%	2.6%	54%
70	76%	18%	86%	20%	11%	35%
69	83%	7%	77%	33%	12%	22%
68	94%	11%	65%	42%	9%	14%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Man United (63%) or Newcastle (34%) are likely taking the 2nd EL spot.

Important matches for EL race (EL or CL)
Crystal Palace vs Man United (6.2%)	Home Win (37%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (39%)
Man United	51%	59%	75%
Newcastle	43%	37%	25%
Chelsea	10%	8%	4.6%
Burnley vs Newcastle (6%)	Home Win (31%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (45%)
Newcastle	22%	30%	45%
Man United	72%	66%	55%
Chelsea	10%	8%	4.8%

	Man United			Newcastle			Chelsea
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
66	2.1%	2.1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
65	2.1%	< 1%	-	2.2%	2.2%	84%	< 1%	< 1%	-
64	7%	5%	100%	2.2%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
63	16%	9%	97.0%	8%	6%	79%	1.5%	1.5%	70%
62	21%	5%	93%	17%	9%	67%	1.5%	< 1%	-
61	37%	16%	84%	22%	5%	70%	6%	4.1%	49%
60	52%	15%	68%	39%	17%	50%	12%	6%	29%
59	62%	10%	56%	55%	15%	31%	16%	4.5%	16%
58	78%	16%	42%	65%	10%	27%	29%	13%	9%
57	89%	10%	31%	80%	16%	11%	41%	12%	3.1%
56	93%	4.8%	26%	90%	10%	4.3%	52%	11%	1.1%
55	98.2%	4.8%	24%	94%	4.4%	2.3%	67%	16%	< 1%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for Europe race (ECL, EL or CL)
Chelsea vs West Ham (12.2%)	Home Win (49%)	Draw (23%)	Away Win (28%)
Chelsea	43%	23%	14%
West Ham	< 1%	< 1%	8%
Newcastle	76%	87%	88%
Man United	84%	91%	92%
Chelsea vs Tottenham (9.8%)	Home Win (43%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (33%)
Chelsea	44%	24%	16%
Newcastle	74%	86%	90%
Man United	83%	90%	93%
Burnley vs Newcastle (7.4%)	Home Win (31%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (45%)
Newcastle	69%	79%	92%
Chelsea	39%	32%	23%
West Ham	3.9%	2.6%	1.4%

	Man United			Newcastle			Chelsea			West Ham
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
65	2.1%	< 1%	-	2.2%	2.2%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
64	7%	5%	100%	2.2%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
63	16%	9%	99.96%	8%	6%	100%	1.5%	1.5%	98%	< 1%	< 1%	-
62	21%	5%	99.9%	17%	9%	99.6%	1.5%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
61	37%	16%	99.3%	22%	5%	99.5%	6%	4.1%	93%	< 1%	< 1%	-
60	52%	15%	96.9%	39%	17%	97.4%	12%	6%	83%	< 1%	< 1%	-
59	62%	10%	94%	55%	15%	93%	16%	4.5%	69%	< 1%	< 1%	-
58	78%	16%	85%	65%	10%	89%	29%	13%	58%	1.8%	1.8%	47%
57	89%	10%	73%	80%	16%	74%	41%	12%	37%	1.8%	< 1%	-
56	93%	4.8%	61%	90%	10%	60%	52%	11%	21%	7%	4.8%	12%
55	98.2%	4.8%	45%	94%	4.4%	44%	67%	16%	13%	25%	18%	5%
54	100%	1.8%	32%	98.4%	4.3%	20%	78%	11%	4.0%	28%	3.5%	1.4%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Forest take om average 1.5 points more than Luton and clinch the new contract in 69% of the simulations.The table below shows the likely outcome for the two teams as well as Burnley, which are trailing a few points behind.

Important matches for avoiding relegation
Sheffield United vs Forest (15.4%)	Home Win (40%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (36%)
Forest	53%	66%	87%
Luton	36%	27%	9%
Burnley	11%	7%	3.1%
Luton vs Everton (14.7%)	Home Win (38%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (37%)
Luton	43%	16%	10%
Forest	53%	75%	80%
Burnley	3.8%	8%	9%

	Burnley			Luton			Forest
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
35	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	3.8%	3.8%	100%
34	< 1%	< 1%	-	1.7%	1.7%	96%	3.8%	< 1%	-
33	< 1%	< 1%	98%	1.7%	< 1%	-	12%	8%	98.3%
32	< 1%	< 1%	-	6%	4.7%	73%	26%	14%	97.7%
31	2.5%	1.9%	70%	19%	13%	67%	32%	6%	94%
30	8%	5%	51%	23%	3.9%	46%	53%	21%	79%
29	10%	2.4%	23%	43%	20%	25%	72%	19%	69%
28	22%	12%	11%	66%	23%	17%	80%	7%	52%
27	37%	15%	3.2%	73%	7%	4.8%	92%	13%	24%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points