Posts
Liverpool are out (<1%) of the title race after losing too much ground. The title race is thereby a two-horse race, which Man City win two of three times. They finish on average with 2.3 points more than Arsenal. The most common outcome in the simulations is that Man City take 13 points in the last five games and then Arsenal have to win their remaining four games, which happen in 9% of the simulations.
In the race for CL, Aston Villa lost some grounds with a draw against Chelsea. Tottenham are still trailing 2.5 points behind Villa in the average outcome, but both teams have difficult schedules and the outcome is therefore uncertain.
Behind them, Man United, Newcastle and to some degree Chelsea are fighting over the second EL spot. Man United have the advantage that they can snatch through a win in the FGA cup final against Man City. Otherwise, it's a tight race and 60 points or high 50s will likely be needed to finish top 6. Chelsea, Brighton and West Ham are outsiders lurking behind but are more likely having a chance for the Conference League spot.
| Average Simulated Season | Probabilities | |||||||||||
| Pts | Team | Pts | GD | Relegated | Top 7 | Top 6 | Top 5 | Top 4 | Win League | ECL | EL | CL |
| 76 | Man City | 87.0 | +55 | < 1% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 68% | < 1% | < 1% | 100% |
| 77 | Arsenal | 84.7 | +60 | < 1% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 31% | < 1% | < 1% | 100% |
| 75 | Liverpool | 80.9 | +44 | < 1% | 100% | 100% | 100% | >99.99% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | >99.99% |
| 67 | Aston Villa | 71.0 | +21 | < 1% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 76% | < 1% | < 1% | 23% | 77% |
| 60 | Tottenham | 68.5 | +16 | < 1% | >99.99% | 99.88% | 98.3% | 24% | < 1% | < 1% | 73% | 27% |
| 54 | Man United | 59.6 | +1 | < 1% | 83% | 50% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 25% | 62% | < 1% |
| 53 | Newcastle | 58.7 | +19 | < 1% | 81% | 42% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 47% | 34% | < 1% |
| 48 | Chelsea | 55.8 | +5 | < 1% | 31% | 8% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 23% | 7% | < 1% |
| 49 | West Ham | 52.7 | -10 | < 1% | 1.9% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 2.2% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 44 | Brighton | 51.0 | -2 | < 1% | 3.0% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 2.6% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 45 | Bournemouth | 49.4 | -13 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 46 | Wolves | 48.7 | -10 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 43 | Fulham | 46.4 | -5 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 40 | Crystal Palace | 43.5 | -13 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 38 | Everton | 41.9 | -12 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 35 | Brentford | 39.2 | -8 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 26 | Forest | 30.3 | -20 | 26% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 25 | Luton | 28.2 | -31 | 79% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 21 | Burnley | 25.5 | -37 | 94% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 16 | Sheffield United | 20.5 | -62 | 99.94% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
Titles
| Team | One Title | Two titles | Three titles | Four titles | Double | Treble | Quadruple |
| Man City | 93% | 52% | 52% | ||||
| Arsenal | 31% | ||||||
| Liverpool | 100% | < 1% | |||||
| Aston Villa | 53% | ||||||
| Man United | 23% |
| Important matches for title race | |||
| Tottenham vs Arsenal (13.3%) | Home Win (36%) | Draw (24%) | Away Win (40%) |
| Arsenal | 17% | 24% | 48% |
| Man City | 82% | 75% | 52% |
| Forest vs Man City (10%) | Home Win (13%) | Draw (17%) | Away Win (70%) |
| Man City | 44% | 54% | 76% |
| Arsenal | 54% | 45% | 23% |
| Man City vs Wolves (7.5%) | Home Win (79%) | Draw (13%) | Away Win (8%) |
| Man City | 74% | 51% | 41% |
| Arsenal | 26% | 47% | 57% |
| Arsenal vs Bournemouth (6.9%) | Home Win (75%) | Draw (15%) | Away Win (10%) |
| Arsenal | 37% | 17% | 11% |
| Man City | 63% | 82% | 87% |
| Man City | Arsenal | |||||
| points | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance |
| 91 | 13% | 13% | 100% | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 90 | 13% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 89 | 31% | 18% | 91% | 9% | 9% | 87% |
| 88 | 47% | 16% | 91% | 9% | < 1% | - |
| 87 | 56% | 10% | 76% | 24% | 15% | 53% |
| 86 | 73% | 17% | 58% | 43% | 19% | 43% |
| 85 | 83% | 10% | 49% | 51% | 8% | 27% |
| 84 | 89% | 6% | 29% | 70% | 19% | 17% |
| 83 | 95.0% | 6% | 13% | 83% | 13% | 8% |
| 82 | 97.6% | 2.6% | 9% | 89% | 6% | 4.0% |
| 81 | 98.9% | 1.3% | 2% | 95.8% | 7% | 1.4% |
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points
| Important matches for CL race | |||
| Tottenham vs Arsenal (9.2%) | Home Win (36%) | Draw (24%) | Away Win (40%) |
| Aston Villa | 63% | 81% | 88% |
| Tottenham | 41% | 23% | 16% |
| Chelsea vs Tottenham (9.1%) | Home Win (43%) | Draw (24%) | Away Win (33%) |
| Aston Villa | 87% | 80% | 62% |
| Tottenham | 17% | 24% | 42% |
| Brighton vs Aston Villa (7.8%) | Home Win (42%) | Draw (24%) | Away Win (34%) |
| Aston Villa | 67% | 77% | 90% |
| Tottenham | 36% | 27% | 14% |
| Liverpool vs Tottenham (7.1%) | Home Win (63%) | Draw (20%) | Away Win (17%) |
| Aston Villa | 83% | 75% | 57% |
| Tottenham | 20% | 29% | 47% |
| Aston Villa | Tottenham | |||||
| points | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance |
| 76 | 4.8% | 4.8% | 99.6% | 1.1% | < 1% | 98% |
| 75 | 4.8% | < 1% | - | 3.0% | 1.9% | 95% |
| 74 | 14% | 10% | 96.7% | 4.4% | 1.4% | 89% |
| 73 | 30% | 16% | 94% | 10% | 6% | 76% |
| 72 | 37% | 6% | 89% | 17% | 7% | 66% |
| 71 | 58% | 21% | 82% | 24% | 7% | 51% |
| 70 | 76% | 18% | 73% | 38% | 14% | 33% |
| 69 | 83% | 7% | 61% | 50% | 12% | 21% |
| 68 | 94% | 11% | 49% | 61% | 11% | 13% |
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points
| Important matches for EL race (EL or CL) | |||
| Crystal Palace vs Man United (6.5%) | Home Win (37%) | Draw (24%) | Away Win (39%) |
| Man United | 51% | 59% | 75% |
| Newcastle | 42% | 37% | 24% |
| Chelsea | 10% | 8% | 4.4% |
| Burnley vs Newcastle (5.9%) | Home Win (31%) | Draw (24%) | Away Win (46%) |
| Newcastle | 21% | 30% | 44% |
| Man United | 71% | 65% | 55% |
| Chelsea | 10% | 8% | 4.7% |
| Man United | Newcastle | Chelsea | |||||||
| points | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance |
| 66 | 2.1% | 2.1% | 100% | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 65 | 2.1% | < 1% | - | 2.2% | 2.2% | 81% | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 64 | 7% | 5% | 100% | 2.2% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 63 | 16% | 9% | 96.9% | 8% | 6% | 77% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 68% |
| 62 | 21% | 5% | 93% | 17% | 9% | 66% | 1.5% | < 1% | - |
| 61 | 37% | 16% | 84% | 22% | 5% | 70% | 6% | 4.1% | 48% |
| 60 | 52% | 15% | 68% | 39% | 17% | 50% | 12% | 6% | 29% |
| 59 | 62% | 10% | 55% | 55% | 15% | 31% | 16% | 4.5% | 16% |
| 58 | 78% | 16% | 42% | 64% | 10% | 27% | 29% | 13% | 9% |
| 57 | 89% | 10% | 30% | 80% | 16% | 11% | 41% | 12% | 2.9% |
| 56 | 93% | 4.7% | 26% | 90% | 10% | 3.9% | 52% | 11% | < 1% |
| 55 | 98.2% | 4.8% | 24% | 94% | 4.4% | 2.1% | 67% | 16% | < 1% |
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points
| Important matches for Europe race (ECL, EL or CL) | |||
| Chelsea vs West Ham (11.6%) | Home Win (49%) | Draw (23%) | Away Win (28%) |
| Chelsea | 42% | 22% | 14% |
| West Ham | < 1% | < 1% | 7% |
| Newcastle | 75% | 86% | 87% |
| Man United | 83% | 90% | 92% |
| Chelsea vs Tottenham (9.6%) | Home Win (43%) | Draw (24%) | Away Win (33%) |
| Chelsea | 44% | 23% | 16% |
| Newcastle | 73% | 85% | 89% |
| Man United | 82% | 90% | 92% |
| Burnley vs Newcastle (7.5%) | Home Win (31%) | Draw (24%) | Away Win (46%) |
| Newcastle | 68% | 79% | 92% |
| Chelsea | 38% | 31% | 23% |
| Man United | Newcastle | Chelsea | Brighton | West Ham | |||||||||||
| points | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance |
| 65 | 2.1% | < 1% | - | 2.2% | 2.2% | 100% | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 64 | 7% | 5% | 100% | 2.2% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 63 | 16% | 9% | 99.97% | 8% | 6% | 100% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 98% | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 62 | 21% | 5% | 99.9% | 17% | 9% | 99.5% | 1.5% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 61 | 37% | 16% | 99.3% | 22% | 5% | 99.5% | 6% | 4.1% | 93% | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 60 | 52% | 15% | 96.9% | 39% | 17% | 97.4% | 12% | 6% | 83% | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 59 | 62% | 10% | 94% | 55% | 15% | 92% | 16% | 4.5% | 69% | < 1% | < 1% | 85% | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 58 | 78% | 16% | 85% | 64% | 10% | 89% | 29% | 13% | 58% | < 1% | < 1% | - | 1.8% | 1.8% | 47% |
| 57 | 89% | 10% | 71% | 80% | 16% | 73% | 41% | 12% | 36% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 45% | 1.8% | < 1% | - |
| 56 | 93% | 4.7% | 59% | 90% | 10% | 56% | 52% | 11% | 20% | 7% | 4.1% | 18% | 7% | 4.7% | 11% |
| 55 | 98.2% | 4.8% | 43% | 94% | 4.4% | 41% | 67% | 16% | 11% | 11% | 3.1% | 9% | 25% | 18% | 4.4% |
| 54 | 100% | 1.8% | 30% | 98.4% | 4.3% | 16% | 78% | 11% | 3.4% | 21% | 10% | 1.6% | 28% | 3.5% | 1.1% |
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points
| Important matches for avoiding relegation | |||
| Sheffield United vs Forest (13.5%) | Home Win (40%) | Draw (24%) | Away Win (36%) |
| Forest | 60% | 72% | 90% |
| Luton | 31% | 22% | 8% |
| Burnley | 9% | 5% | 2.3% |
| Luton vs Everton (12.7%) | Home Win (38%) | Draw (24%) | Away Win (37%) |
| Luton | 37% | 14% | 8% |
| Forest | 60% | 80% | 84% |
| Forest vs Man City (6.2%) | Home Win (13%) | Draw (17%) | Away Win (70%) |
| Forest | 93% | 79% | 69% |
| Luton | 5% | 17% | 24% |
| Burnley | 1.5% | 4.0% | 7% |
| Burnley | Luton | Forest | |||||||
| points | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance |
| 36 | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - | 2.2% | 1.7% | 100% |
| 35 | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - | 7% | 4.5% | 100% |
| 34 | < 1% | < 1% | - | 1.7% | 1.7% | 91% | 9% | 2.2% | 100% |
| 33 | < 1% | < 1% | 92% | 1.7% | < 1% | - | 20% | 11% | 98.2% |
| 32 | < 1% | < 1% | - | 6% | 4.6% | 66% | 33% | 14% | 97.7% |
| 31 | 2.5% | 1.9% | 62% | 19% | 13% | 58% | 42% | 9% | 93% |
| 30 | 8% | 5% | 42% | 23% | 3.9% | 37% | 61% | 19% | 79% |
| 29 | 10% | 2.3% | 20% | 43% | 20% | 20% | 77% | 16% | 69% |
| 28 | 22% | 12% | 8% | 66% | 23% | 13% | 84% | 7% | 51% |
| 27 | 37% | 15% | 2.2% | 73% | 7% | 3.2% | 95% | 10% | 23% |
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points
| Europe | EL (or CL) | CL | |
| Fourth team | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Fifth team | 100% | 100% | 3.9% |
| FA cup winners | 100% | 100% | 77% |
| League cup winners | 100% | 100% | >99.99% |
| Sixth team | 100% | 89% | < 1% |
| Seventh team | 96.2% | 11% | < 1% |
| Eighth team | 7% | 3.6% | < 1% |
Simulated points for winner: 86 - 89
Simulated points for fourth: 70 - 73
Simulated points for 17th team: 29 - 32
Coming Matches
| Home | Draw | Away | ||
| Sheffield United | 43% | 24% | 33% | Burnley |
| Tottenham | 36% | 24% | 40% | Arsenal |
| Bournemouth | 42% | 24% | 34% | Brighton |
| Forest | 13% | 17% | 70% | Man City |
| Chelsea | 43% | 24% | 33% | Tottenham |
| Luton | 38% | 24% | 37% | Everton |
| Arsenal | 75% | 15% | 10% | Bournemouth |
| Burnley | 31% | 24% | 46% | Newcastle |
| Sheffield United | 40% | 24% | 36% | Forest |
| Brentford | 46% | 24% | 30% | Fulham |
| Man City | 79% | 13% | 8% | Wolves |
| Chelsea | 49% | 23% | 28% | West Ham |
| Brighton | 42% | 24% | 34% | Aston Villa |
| Liverpool | 63% | 20% | 17% | Tottenham |
| Crystal Palace | 37% | 24% | 39% | Man United |
Most likely combo of teams in CL
| 73% | Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City |
| 23% | Arsenal, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham |
| 3.8% | Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham |
Most likely combo of teams being relegated
| 74% | Burnley, Luton, Sheffield United |
| 21% | Burnley, Forest, Sheffield United |
| 6% | Forest, Luton, Sheffield United |
No comments:
Post a Comment