PL: Man City remains in pole position with 68% chance to win the league.

Man City remains in pole position with 68% chance to win the league.

Titles

Average Simulated Season

Probabilities

Pts

Team

Pts

GD

Relegated

Top 7

Top 6

Top 5

Top 4

Win League

ECL

EL

CL

76

Man City

87.0

+55

< 1%

100%

100%

100%

100%

68%

< 1%

< 1%

100%

77

Arsenal

84.7

+60

< 1%

100%

100%

100%

100%

30%

< 1%

< 1%

100%

74

Liverpool

81.5

+44

< 1%

100%

100%

100%

99.98%

2.1%

< 1%

< 1%

99.98%

66

Aston Villa

71.9

+22

< 1%

100%

100%

99.95%

81%

< 1%

< 1%

18%

82%

60

Tottenham

68.5

+16

< 1%

>99.99%

99.83%

96.8%

19%

< 1%

< 1%

78%

22%

53

Man United

60.8

+3

< 1%

90%

64%

2.4%

< 1%

< 1%

19%

73%

< 1%

50

Newcastle

58.1

+17

< 1%

73%

28%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

50%

24%

< 1%

47

Chelsea

55.7

+5

< 1%

30%

7%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

24%

7%

< 1%

48

West Ham

52.9

-10

< 1%

3.8%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

4.0%

< 1%

< 1%

44

Brighton

51.0

-2

< 1%

3.1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

2.9%

< 1%

< 1%

45

Bournemouth

49.4

-13

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

43

Wolves

47.8

-10

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

42

Fulham

47.3

-4

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

39

Crystal Palace

43.5

-14

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

35

Everton

40.6

-12

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

35

Brentford

40.3

-7

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

26

Forest

30.3

-20

32%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

25

Luton

28.9

-31

72%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

20

Burnley

25.1

-38

95.8%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

16

Sheffield United

21.0

-59

99.82%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

 

Important matches for title race
Tottenham vs Arsenal (13.2%)	Home Win (36%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (40%)
Arsenal	16%	23%	48%
Man City	81%	74%	51%
Forest vs Man City (10%)	Home Win (13%)	Draw (17%)	Away Win (70%)
Man City	43%	53%	76%
Arsenal	52%	43%	23%
Liverpool	5%	3.3%	1.2%

	Man City			Arsenal			Liverpool
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
91	13%	13%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
90	13%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
89	31%	18%	91%	9%	9%	86%	< 1%	< 1%	-
88	47%	16%	91%	9%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
87	56%	10%	76%	24%	15%	53%	< 1%	< 1%	-
86	73%	17%	57%	43%	18%	43%	9%	9%	16%
85	83%	10%	45%	51%	8%	24%	9%	< 1%	-
84	89%	6%	27%	70%	19%	15%	23%	14%	3.3%
83	95.1%	6%	13%	83%	13%	8%	40%	17%	< 1%
82	97.6%	2.5%	6%	89%	6%	3.1%	48%	8%	< 1%
81	98.9%	1.3%	2%	95.8%	6%	1.3%	67%	19%	< 1%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for CL race
Tottenham vs Arsenal (7.3%)	Home Win (36%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (40%)
Aston Villa	70%	85%	90%
Tottenham	34%	19%	13%
Aston Villa vs Chelsea (7.1%)	Home Win (54%)	Draw (22%)	Away Win (23%)
Aston Villa	89%	77%	68%
Tottenham	14%	27%	36%

	Aston Villa			Tottenham
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
78	2.6%	2.6%	99.9%	< 1%	< 1%	99%
77	2.6%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
76	9%	6%	99.5%	1.1%	< 1%	94%
75	19%	10%	98.4%	2.9%	1.8%	85%
74	24%	6%	96.6%	4.3%	1.4%	78%
73	41%	17%	94%	10%	6%	66%
72	57%	15%	88%	17%	7%	51%
71	67%	10%	82%	24%	7%	39%
70	82%	15%	73%	38%	14%	26%
69	91%	9%	60%	50%	12%	16%
68	95%	4.1%	49%	61%	11%	10%
67	98.6%	3.9%	37%	75%	14%	6%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for EL race (EL or CL)
Man United vs Burnley (4.3%)	Home Win (69%)	Draw (18%)	Away Win (14%)
Man United	78%	65%	56%
Newcastle	20%	29%	35%
Chelsea	5%	9%	11%
Newcastle vs Sheffield United (2.9%)	Home Win (73%)	Draw (16%)	Away Win (11%)
Newcastle	28%	16%	11%
Man United	70%	79%	82%
Chelsea	6%	8%	10%
Aston Villa vs Chelsea (2.5%)	Home Win (54%)	Draw (22%)	Away Win (23%)
Chelsea	3.5%	6%	15%
Man United	75%	73%	68%

	Man United			Newcastle			Chelsea
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
68	1.4%	1.4%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
67	1.4%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
66	5%	4.0%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
65	12%	6%	99.3%	1.6%	1.6%	81%	< 1%	< 1%	79%
64	16%	4.4%	99.8%	1.6%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
63	29%	13%	96.3%	6%	4.4%	75%	1.6%	1.3%	64%
62	42%	12%	89%	13%	7%	59%	3.8%	2.2%	49%
61	52%	10%	85%	18%	4.7%	58%	6%	2.0%	38%
60	68%	16%	69%	32%	14%	40%	12%	7%	25%
59	79%	11%	55%	45%	13%	23%	20%	7%	13%
58	86%	7%	45%	56%	10%	17%	27%	8%	7%
57	94%	7%	33%	71%	16%	8%	41%	13%	3.0%
56	97.2%	3.5%	27%	82%	10%	3.3%	52%	11%	1.1%
55	98.8%	1.5%	25%	89%	7%	1.9%	63%	11%	< 1%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for Europe race (ECL, EL or CL)
Aston Villa vs Chelsea (7%)	Home Win (54%)	Draw (22%)	Away Win (23%)
Chelsea	22%	30%	50%
Newcastle	79%	73%	61%
Man United	94%	92%	88%
Newcastle vs Sheffield United (6.2%)	Home Win (73%)	Draw (16%)	Away Win (11%)
Newcastle	80%	61%	50%
Chelsea	26%	38%	44%
West Ham	3.3%	6%	8%
West Ham vs Liverpool (2.7%)	Home Win (30%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (46%)
West Ham	10%	3.0%	1.2%
Newcastle	70%	74%	75%
Man United vs Burnley (2.6%)	Home Win (69%)	Draw (18%)	Away Win (14%)
Man United	95.5%	88%	82%
Chelsea	28%	33%	36%

	Man United			Newcastle			Chelsea			West Ham			Brighton
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
65	12%	6%	>99.99%	1.6%	1.6%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	99.9%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
64	16%	4.4%	100%	1.6%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
63	29%	13%	99.96%	6%	4.4%	99.9%	1.6%	1.3%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
62	42%	12%	99.6%	13%	7%	99.3%	3.8%	2.2%	95%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
61	52%	10%	99.3%	18%	4.7%	98.5%	6%	2.0%	92%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
60	68%	16%	96.9%	32%	14%	96.6%	12%	7%	83%	< 1%	< 1%	77%	< 1%	< 1%	-
59	79%	11%	92%	45%	13%	91%	20%	7%	69%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	83%
58	86%	7%	87%	56%	10%	84%	27%	8%	57%	2.4%	1.9%	47%	< 1%	< 1%	-
57	94%	7%	72%	71%	16%	73%	41%	13%	38%	9%	6%	26%	3.2%	2.5%	46%
56	97.2%	3.5%	57%	82%	10%	53%	52%	11%	22%	11%	2.2%	14%	7%	4.1%	18%
55	98.8%	1.5%	47%	89%	7%	39%	63%	11%	13%	24%	13%	6%	11%	3.1%	11%
54	99.75%	< 1%	32%	95%	6%	21%	76%	13%	5%	42%	18%	1.4%	21%	10%	2.8%
53	100%	< 1%	28%	97.9%	2.9%	7%	84%	8%	1.8%	50%	8%	< 1%	31%	10%	< 1%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for avoiding relegation
Wolves vs Luton (9.1%)	Home Win (64%)	Draw (19%)	Away Win (16%)
Luton	20%	30%	54%
Forest	74%	66%	44%
Forest vs Man City (6.2%)	Home Win (13%)	Draw (17%)	Away Win (70%)
Forest	89%	73%	63%
Luton	9%	24%	32%
Burnley	1.1%	3.5%	5%
Sheffield United vs Burnley (2.5%)	Home Win (43%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (33%)
Burnley	1.2%	2.9%	9%
Forest	70%	69%	65%
Man United vs Burnley (2.2%)	Home Win (69%)	Draw (18%)	Away Win (14%)
Burnley	2.3%	4.9%	13%
Forest	69%	67%	62%

	Burnley			Luton			Forest
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
36	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	2.2%	1.7%	99.8%
35	< 1%	< 1%	96%	1.4%	1.1%	93%	7%	4.4%	99.7%
34	< 1%	< 1%	-	4.6%	3.2%	91%	9%	2.2%	98.7%
33	< 1%	< 1%	87%	6%	1.5%	82%	20%	11%	95.4%
32	1.5%	1.1%	67%	15%	9%	66%	33%	14%	94%
31	2.2%	< 1%	56%	27%	13%	57%	42%	9%	85%
30	6%	3.9%	35%	35%	8%	37%	61%	19%	71%
29	12%	6%	15%	55%	20%	21%	77%	16%	60%
28	17%	4.9%	7%	73%	18%	12%	84%	7%	39%
27	30%	13%	1.5%	81%	8%	3.6%	95%	10%	20%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

	Europe	EL (or CL)	CL
Fourth team	100%	100%	100%
Fifth team	100%	100%	3.9%
FA cup winners	100%	100%	77%
League cup winners	100%	100%	99.98%
Sixth team	100%	92%	< 1%
Seventh team	97.6%	10%	< 1%
Eighth team	6%	2.2%	< 1%

Simulated points for winner: 86 - 89
Simulated points for fourth: 70 - 74
Simulated points for 17th team: 30 - 32

Coming Matches

Home		Draw		Away
Sheffield United	43%	24%	33%	Burnley
West Ham	30%	24%	46%	Liverpool
Man United	69%	18%	14%	Burnley
Newcastle	73%	16%	11%	Sheffield United
Wolves	64%	19%	16%	Luton
Fulham	54%	22%	23%	Crystal Palace
Everton	47%	24%	29%	Brentford
Aston Villa	54%	22%	23%	Chelsea
Tottenham	36%	24%	40%	Arsenal
Bournemouth	42%	24%	34%	Brighton
Forest	13%	17%	70%	Man City

Most likely combo of teams in CL

78%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City
18%	Arsenal, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham
3.8%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham

Most likely combo of teams being relegated

68%	Burnley, Luton, Sheffield United
28%	Burnley, Forest, Sheffield United
4.2%	Forest, Luton, Sheffield United