PL: Liverpool loses the derby and ground in the title race.

Liverpool are now trailing more than four points behind Man City in the expected points. They win the league in 3.7% of the simulations. They probably need to win the remaining matches and then need some luck, as indicated by the fact that in the simulations when they do win the remaining matches and finish on 86 points, they only win the league in 26%.

Hot Teams
Crystal Palace: 9 points in the last 5 matches, 4.1 more than expected
Everton: 10 points in the last 5 matches, 3.7 more than expected
Aston Villa: 10 points in the last 5 matches, 2.6 more than expected
Newcastle: 10 points in the last 5 matches, 2.1 more than expected
Arsenal: 12 points in the last 5 matches, 1.8 more than expected

Cold Teams
Wolves: 2 points in the last 5 matches, 5.2 less than expected
Liverpool: 7 points in the last 5 matches, 3.3 less than expected
West Ham: 4 points in the last 5 matches, 2.9 less than expected
Fulham: 4 points in the last 5 matches, 2.5 less than expected
Sheffield United: 2 points in the last 5 matches, 1.6 less than expected

Average Simulated Season

Probabilities

Pts

Team

Pts

GD

Relegated

Top 7

Top 6

Top 5

Top 4

Win League

ECL

EL

CL

73

Man City

85.9

+52

< 1%

100%

100%

100%

>99.99%

55%

< 1%

< 1%

>99.99%

77

Arsenal

84.7

+60

< 1%

100%

100%

100%

100%

41%

< 1%

< 1%

100%

74

Liverpool

81.5

+44

< 1%

100%

100%

100%

99.98%

3.7%

< 1%

< 1%

99.98%

66

Aston Villa

71.9

+22

< 1%

100%

100%

99.94%

81%

< 1%

< 1%

18%

82%

60

Tottenham

68.5

+16

< 1%

>99.99%

99.82%

96.8%

19%

< 1%

< 1%

77%

22%

53

Man United

60.8

+3

< 1%

89%

63%

2.5%

< 1%

< 1%

19%

72%

< 1%

50

Newcastle

58.1

+17

< 1%

72%

28%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

48%

24%

< 1%

47

Chelsea

55.7

+5

< 1%

29%

7%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

23%

7%

< 1%

48

West Ham

52.9

-10

< 1%

3.5%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

3.7%

< 1%

< 1%

44

Brighton

51.8

+1

< 1%

6%

1.2%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

5%

1.1%

< 1%

45

Bournemouth

49.4

-13

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

43

Wolves

47.8

-10

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

42

Fulham

47.3

-4

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

39

Crystal Palace

43.5

-14

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

35

Everton

40.6

-12

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

35

Brentford

40.3

-7

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

26

Forest

30.3

-20

32%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

25

Luton

28.9

-31

72%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

20

Burnley

25.1

-38

95.8%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

16

Sheffield United

21.0

-59

99.82%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

Titles

Team	One Title	Two titles	Three titles	Four titles	Double	Treble	Quadruple
Man City	90%	42%			42%
Arsenal	41%
Liverpool	100%	3.7%
Aston Villa	53%
Man United	23%

Important matches for title race
Tottenham vs Arsenal (13%)	Home Win (36%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (39%)
Arsenal	25%	34%	59%
Man City	69%	62%	39%
Liverpool	6%	4.6%	1.5%
Brighton vs Man City (11.1%)	Home Win (21%)	Draw (21%)	Away Win (58%)
Man City	34%	44%	67%
Arsenal	59%	51%	30%
Liverpool	7%	4.9%	2.3%
Forest vs Man City (8.8%)	Home Win (13%)	Draw (17%)	Away Win (70%)
Man City	31%	41%	64%
Arsenal	62%	54%	34%
Liverpool	7%	5%	2.7%
West Ham vs Liverpool (2.2%)	Home Win (30%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (46%)
Liverpool	< 1%	1.5%	7%

	Man City			Arsenal			Liverpool
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
91	7%	7%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
90	7%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
89	20%	13%	91%	9%	9%	92%	< 1%	< 1%	-
88	32%	12%	91%	9%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
87	42%	9%	76%	24%	15%	67%	< 1%	< 1%	-
86	59%	17%	56%	43%	18%	58%	9%	9%	26%
85	70%	11%	45%	51%	8%	38%	9%	< 1%	-
84	79%	9%	26%	70%	19%	28%	23%	14%	7%
83	88%	9%	12%	83%	13%	16%	40%	17%	2.3%
82	93%	4.9%	6%	89%	6%	7%	48%	8%	< 1%
81	96.1%	3.3%	2.0%	95.8%	6%	3.8%	67%	19%	< 1%
80	98.2%	2.2%	< 1%	98.5%	2.7%	1.5%	80%	13%	< 1%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for CL race
Tottenham vs Arsenal (7.3%)	Home Win (36%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (39%)
Aston Villa	70%	85%	90%
Tottenham	34%	19%	13%
Aston Villa vs Chelsea (7.2%)	Home Win (54%)	Draw (22%)	Away Win (23%)
Aston Villa	89%	77%	68%
Tottenham	15%	27%	36%

	Aston Villa			Tottenham
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
78	2.6%	2.6%	99.9%	< 1%	< 1%	99%
77	2.6%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
76	9%	6%	99.6%	1.1%	< 1%	94%
75	19%	10%	98.4%	2.9%	1.8%	86%
74	24%	6%	96.7%	4.3%	1.4%	79%
73	41%	17%	94%	10%	6%	66%
72	57%	15%	88%	17%	7%	51%
71	66%	10%	81%	24%	7%	39%
70	82%	15%	73%	38%	14%	26%
69	91%	9%	60%	50%	12%	16%
68	95%	4.1%	49%	61%	11%	10%
67	98.6%	3.9%	37%	75%	14%	6%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for EL race (EL or CL)
Man United vs Burnley (4.3%)	Home Win (69%)	Draw (18%)	Away Win (14%)
Man United	78%	64%	56%
Newcastle	20%	29%	35%
Chelsea	5%	9%	11%
Newcastle vs Sheffield United (2.9%)	Home Win (73%)	Draw (16%)	Away Win (11%)
Newcastle	28%	16%	11%
Man United	70%	79%	82%
Chelsea	6%	8%	9%
Aston Villa vs Chelsea (2.5%)	Home Win (54%)	Draw (22%)	Away Win (23%)
Chelsea	3.4%	6%	14%
Man United	75%	73%	68%

	Man United			Newcastle			Chelsea			Brighton
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
68	1.4%	1.4%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
67	1.4%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
66	5%	4.0%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
65	12%	6%	99.3%	1.6%	1.6%	81%	< 1%	< 1%	79%	< 1%	< 1%	-
64	16%	4.4%	99.8%	1.6%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
63	29%	13%	96.4%	6%	4.4%	75%	1.6%	1.3%	64%	< 1%	< 1%	-
62	42%	12%	89%	13%	7%	59%	3.8%	2.2%	48%	< 1%	< 1%	67%
61	52%	10%	85%	18%	4.7%	58%	6%	2.0%	38%	< 1%	< 1%	-
60	68%	16%	69%	32%	14%	40%	12%	7%	25%	< 1%	< 1%	42%
59	79%	11%	54%	45%	13%	23%	20%	7%	13%	2.2%	1.3%	20%
58	86%	8%	44%	56%	10%	17%	27%	8%	7%	3.4%	1.2%	12%
57	94%	7%	31%	71%	16%	8%	41%	13%	2.7%	8%	4.5%	4.2%
56	97.3%	3.5%	26%	82%	10%	3.0%	52%	11%	< 1%	13%	5%	1.1%
55	98.8%	1.5%	25%	89%	7%	1.7%	63%	11%	< 1%	19%	6%	< 1%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for Europe race (ECL, EL or CL)
Aston Villa vs Chelsea (6.8%)	Home Win (54%)	Draw (22%)	Away Win (23%)
Chelsea	21%	30%	49%
Newcastle	77%	72%	60%
Man United	94%	92%	87%
Newcastle vs Sheffield United (6.2%)	Home Win (73%)	Draw (16%)	Away Win (11%)
Newcastle	79%	60%	49%
Chelsea	26%	37%	43%
West Ham	3.0%	6%	8%
Brighton	5%	8%	10%
Man United vs Burnley (2.8%)	Home Win (69%)	Draw (18%)	Away Win (14%)
Man United	95.1%	87%	81%
Chelsea	28%	32%	35%
West Ham vs Liverpool (2.6%)	Home Win (30%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (46%)
West Ham	10%	2.7%	1.1%
Newcastle	69%	73%	74%
Bournemouth vs Brighton (2.6%)	Home Win (42%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (34%)
Brighton	2.6%	4.9%	12%
Brighton vs Man City (2.3%)	Home Win (21%)	Draw (21%)	Away Win (58%)
Brighton	15%	6%	3.4%
Newcastle	69%	72%	73%

	Man United			Newcastle			Chelsea			Brighton			West Ham
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
65	12%	6%	>99.99%	1.6%	1.6%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	99.8%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
64	16%	4.4%	100%	1.6%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
63	29%	13%	99.95%	6%	4.4%	99.9%	1.6%	1.3%	98%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
62	42%	12%	99.6%	13%	7%	99.4%	3.8%	2.2%	95%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	-
61	52%	10%	99.3%	18%	4.7%	98.5%	6%	2.0%	92%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
60	68%	16%	96.8%	32%	14%	96.5%	12%	7%	83%	< 1%	< 1%	94%	< 1%	< 1%	77%
59	79%	11%	92%	45%	13%	90%	20%	7%	68%	2.2%	1.3%	76%	< 1%	< 1%	-
58	86%	8%	85%	56%	10%	83%	27%	8%	56%	3.4%	1.2%	68%	2.3%	1.8%	47%
57	94%	7%	69%	71%	16%	71%	41%	13%	36%	8%	4.5%	40%	9%	6%	24%
56	97.3%	3.5%	54%	82%	10%	49%	52%	11%	20%	13%	5%	18%	11%	2.2%	12%
55	98.8%	1.5%	42%	89%	7%	36%	63%	11%	12%	19%	6%	10%	24%	13%	5%
54	99.75%	< 1%	30%	95.0%	6%	18%	76%	13%	4.2%	31%	12%	2.7%	42%	18%	1.2%
53	100%	< 1%	26%	97.9%	2.9%	6%	84%	8%	1.4%	41%	11%	< 1%	50%	8%	< 1%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for avoiding relegation
Wolves vs Luton (9.2%)	Home Win (64%)	Draw (19%)	Away Win (16%)
Luton	20%	30%	54%
Forest	74%	67%	44%
Forest vs Man City (6.1%)	Home Win (13%)	Draw (17%)	Away Win (70%)
Forest	89%	73%	63%
Luton	10%	23%	32%
Burnley	1.2%	3.5%	5.0%
Sheffield United vs Burnley (2.5%)	Home Win (43%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (33%)
Burnley	1.2%	2.9%	9%
Forest	70%	69%	65%
Man United vs Burnley (2.2%)	Home Win (69%)	Draw (18%)	Away Win (14%)
Burnley	2.2%	4.9%	13%
Forest	69%	67%	62%

	Burnley			Luton			Forest
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
36	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	2.2%	1.7%	99.8%
35	< 1%	< 1%	97%	1.4%	1.1%	94%	7%	4.5%	99.7%
34	< 1%	< 1%	-	4.6%	3.2%	91%	9%	2.2%	98.7%
33	< 1%	< 1%	86%	6%	1.5%	80%	20%	11%	95.4%
32	1.5%	1.1%	68%	15%	9%	66%	33%	14%	94%
31	2.2%	< 1%	55%	27%	13%	57%	42%	9%	85%
30	6%	3.9%	35%	35%	8%	38%	61%	19%	71%
29	12%	6%	15%	55%	20%	21%	77%	16%	60%
28	17%	4.9%	7%	73%	18%	12%	84%	7%	40%
27	30%	13%	1.4%	81%	8%	3.6%	95%	10%	20%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

	Europe	EL (or CL)	CL
Fourth team	100%	100%	100%
Fifth team	100%	100%	3.9%
FA cup winners	100%	100%	77%
League cup winners	100%	100%	99.98%
Sixth team	100%	92%	< 1%
Seventh team	97.5%	10%	< 1%
Eighth team	6%	2.2%	< 1%

Simulated points for winner: 86 - 89
Simulated points for fourth: 70 - 74
Simulated points for 17th team: 30 - 32

Coming Matches

Home		Draw		Away
Sheffield United	43%	24%	33%	Burnley
Brighton	21%	21%	58%	Man City
West Ham	30%	24%	46%	Liverpool
Man United	69%	18%	14%	Burnley
Newcastle	73%	16%	11%	Sheffield United
Wolves	64%	19%	16%	Luton
Fulham	55%	22%	23%	Crystal Palace
Everton	47%	24%	29%	Brentford
Aston Villa	54%	22%	23%	Chelsea
Tottenham	36%	24%	39%	Arsenal
Bournemouth	42%	24%	34%	Brighton
Forest	13%	17%	70%	Man City

Most likely combo of teams in CL

78%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City
18%	Arsenal, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham
3.8%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham

Most likely combo of teams being relegated

68%	Burnley, Luton, Sheffield United
28%	Burnley, Forest, Sheffield United
4.2%	Forest, Luton, Sheffield United