PL: Arsenal put pressure on Man City

Arsenal put pressure on Man City with a win against Chelsea. Arsenal are now trailing 1.2 xPoints behind Man City. Every match is crucial and the difference in a win a draw is a 20% swing for Man City. As is the open North London Derby coming up on Sunday.

Average Simulated Season

Probabilities

Pts

Team

Pts

GD

Relegated

Top 7

Top 6

Top 5

Top 4

Win League

ECL

EL

CL

73

Man City

85.9

+52

< 1%

100%

100%

100%

>99.99%

50%

< 1%

< 1%

>99.99%

77

Arsenal

84.7

+60

< 1%

100%

100%

100%

>99.99%

36%

< 1%

< 1%

>99.99%

74

Liverpool

83.4

+47

< 1%

100%

100%

100%

>99.99%

14%

< 1%

< 1%

>99.99%

66

Aston Villa

71.9

+22

< 1%

100%

100%

99.90%

81%

< 1%

< 1%

18%

82%

60

Tottenham

68.5

+16

< 1%

99.99%

99.71%

95.8%

19%

< 1%

< 1%

77%

22%

50

Man United

60.2

+2

< 1%

82%

48%

1.9%

< 1%

< 1%

26%

61%

< 1%

50

Newcastle

59.4

+19

< 1%

82%

44%

2.2%

< 1%

< 1%

46%

36%

< 1%

47

Chelsea

55.7

+5

< 1%

27%

7%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

20%

6%

< 1%

48

West Ham

52.9

-10

< 1%

2.9%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

2.9%

< 1%

< 1%

44

Brighton

51.8

+1

< 1%

5%

1.0%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

4.5%

< 1%

< 1%

43

Wolves

49.7

-8

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

42

Bournemouth

47.4

-15

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

42

Fulham

47.3

-4

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

36

Crystal Palace

41.8

-16

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

35

Brentford

40.3

-7

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

32

Everton

38.5

-15

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

26

Forest

30.3

-20

32%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

25

Luton

28.9

-31

72%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

20

Burnley

25.1

-38

95.8%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

16

Sheffield United

21.5

-59

99.59%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

Titles

Team	One Title	Two titles	Three titles	Four titles	Double	Treble	Quadruple
Man City	88%	39%			39%
Arsenal	36%
Liverpool	100%	14%
Aston Villa	53%
Man United	23%

Important matches for title race
Tottenham vs Arsenal (12.7%)	Home Win (36%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (40%)
Arsenal	20%	29%	54%
Man City	62%	56%	37%
Liverpool	19%	16%	9%
Brighton vs Man City (10.6%)	Home Win (21%)	Draw (21%)	Away Win (58%)
Man City	29%	39%	62%
Arsenal	50%	44%	27%
Liverpool	21%	17%	10%
Forest vs Man City (8.2%)	Home Win (13%)	Draw (17%)	Away Win (70%)
Man City	26%	36%	59%
Arsenal	52%	46%	30%
Liverpool	22%	19%	11%
West Ham vs Liverpool (5.5%)	Home Win (30%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (46%)
Liverpool	4.4%	9%	23%
Man City	55%	53%	46%
Arsenal	40%	38%	31%
Everton vs Liverpool (4.6%)	Home Win (22%)	Draw (22%)	Away Win (56%)
Liverpool	3.8%	8%	21%
Man City	56%	54%	47%
Arsenal	41%	38%	32%

	Man City			Arsenal			Liverpool
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
91	7%	7%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
90	7%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
89	20%	13%	90%	9%	9%	92%	4.9%	4.9%	75%
88	32%	12%	86%	9%	< 1%	-	4.9%	< 1%	-
87	42%	9%	70%	24%	15%	65%	15%	10%	46%
86	59%	17%	47%	43%	19%	50%	26%	11%	26%
85	70%	11%	35%	51%	8%	31%	34%	8%	17%
84	79%	9%	18%	70%	19%	20%	51%	18%	7%
83	88%	9%	8%	83%	13%	10%	64%	13%	2.4%
82	93%	4.8%	3.4%	89%	6%	4.4%	74%	10%	< 1%
81	96.1%	3.4%	< 1%	95.8%	6%	1.9%	85%	11%	< 1%
80	98.2%	2.2%	< 1%	98.5%	2.7%	< 1%	91%	6%	< 1%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points