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Man City in pole position with 56% chance. The finish on average with 2.0 points more than Arsenal, and Liverpool trail another 0.5 points behind. It seem PL is missing the bonus PL spot and Aston Villa have the advantage (82%) against Tottenham (22%). Behind them Man United and Newcastle are favourites to take the remaining spots in the Europeans competitions. At the bottom of the table, it's a tight race between Forest and Luton clinching the last spot for Premier League 2024/25.
Hot Teams
Aston Villa: 10 points in the last 5 matches, 2.6 more than expected
Newcastle: 10 points in the last 5 matches, 2.4 more than expected
Crystal Palace: 7 points in the last 5 matches, 2.3 more than expected
Chelsea: 11 points in the last 5 matches, 1.8 more than expected
Brentford: 9 points in the last 5 matches, 1.8 more than expected
Cold Teams
Wolves: 2 points in the last 5 matches, 4.2 less than expected
West Ham: 4 points in the last 5 matches, 2.9 less than expected
Fulham: 4 points in the last 5 matches, 2.5 less than expected
Brighton: 5 points in the last 5 matches, 1.5 less than expected
Tottenham: 7 points in the last 5 matches, 1.3 less than expected
| Average Simulated Season | Probabilities | |||||||||||
| Pts | Team | Pts | GD | Relegated | Top 7 | Top 6 | Top 5 | Top 4 | Win League | ECL | EL | CL |
| 73 | Man City | 85.9 | +52 | < 1% | 100% | 100% | 100% | >99.99% | 56% | < 1% | < 1% | >99.99% |
| 74 | Arsenal | 83.9 | +56 | < 1% | 100% | 100% | 100% | >99.99% | 28% | < 1% | < 1% | >99.99% |
| 74 | Liverpool | 83.4 | +47 | < 1% | 100% | 100% | 100% | >99.99% | 16% | < 1% | < 1% | >99.99% |
| 66 | Aston Villa | 71.9 | +22 | < 1% | 100% | >99.99% | 99.89% | 81% | < 1% | < 1% | 18% | 82% |
| 60 | Tottenham | 68.5 | +16 | < 1% | 99.97% | 99.60% | 95.6% | 19% | < 1% | < 1% | 77% | 22% |
| 50 | Man United | 60.2 | +2 | < 1% | 80% | 46% | 1.9% | < 1% | < 1% | 25% | 60% | < 1% |
| 50 | Newcastle | 59.4 | +19 | < 1% | 79% | 43% | 2.2% | < 1% | < 1% | 44% | 35% | < 1% |
| 47 | Chelsea | 56.3 | +8 | < 1% | 33% | 10% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 23% | 8% | < 1% |
| 48 | West Ham | 52.9 | -10 | < 1% | 2.6% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 2.7% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 44 | Brighton | 51.8 | +1 | < 1% | 4.9% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 3.9% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 43 | Wolves | 49.7 | -8 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 42 | Bournemouth | 47.4 | -15 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 42 | Fulham | 47.3 | -4 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 36 | Crystal Palace | 41.8 | -16 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 35 | Brentford | 40.3 | -7 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 32 | Everton | 38.5 | -15 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 26 | Forest | 30.3 | -20 | 32% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 25 | Luton | 28.9 | -31 | 72% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 20 | Burnley | 25.1 | -38 | 95.8% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 16 | Sheffield United | 21.5 | -59 | 99.58% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
Titles
| Team | One Title | Two titles | Three titles | Four titles | Double | Treble | Quadruple |
| Man City | 90% | 43% | 43% | ||||
| Arsenal | 28% | ||||||
| Liverpool | 100% | 16% | |||||
| Aston Villa | 53% | ||||||
| Man United | 23% |
| Important matches for title race | |||
| Brighton vs Man City (10.2%) | Home Win (21%) | Draw (21%) | Away Win (58%) |
| Man City | 34% | 45% | 67% |
| Arsenal | 41% | 35% | 21% |
| Liverpool | 25% | 20% | 12% |
| Arsenal vs Chelsea (6.3%) | Home Win (67%) | Draw (18%) | Away Win (14%) |
| Arsenal | 35% | 16% | 10% |
| Man City | 51% | 64% | 68% |
| Liverpool | 14% | 20% | 22% |
| Everton vs Liverpool (5%) | Home Win (22%) | Draw (22%) | Away Win (56%) |
| Liverpool | 5% | 10% | 23% |
| Man City | 62% | 60% | 51% |
| Arsenal | 33% | 31% | 25% |
| Man City | Arsenal | Liverpool | |||||||
| points | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance |
| 91 | 7% | 7% | 100% | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 90 | 7% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 89 | 20% | 13% | 93% | 6% | 6% | 92% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 78% |
| 88 | 32% | 12% | 89% | 6% | < 1% | - | 4.8% | < 1% | - |
| 87 | 42% | 9% | 76% | 18% | 12% | 64% | 15% | 10% | 50% |
| 86 | 59% | 17% | 57% | 32% | 14% | 49% | 26% | 11% | 32% |
| 85 | 70% | 11% | 43% | 40% | 8% | 30% | 34% | 8% | 20% |
| 84 | 79% | 9% | 26% | 59% | 19% | 20% | 51% | 17% | 10% |
| 83 | 88% | 9% | 13% | 71% | 13% | 10% | 64% | 13% | 4.2% |
| 82 | 93% | 4.9% | 7% | 80% | 9% | 4.3% | 74% | 10% | 1.7% |
| 81 | 96.1% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 90% | 10% | 1.9% | 85% | 11% | < 1% |
| 80 | 98.2% | 2.2% | < 1% | 95% | 4.8% | < 1% | 91% | 6% | < 1% |
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points
| Important matches for EL race (EL or CL) | |||
| Crystal Palace vs Newcastle (4.9%) | Home Win (38%) | Draw (24%) | Away Win (38%) |
| Newcastle | 25% | 32% | 47% |
| Man United | 66% | 62% | 52% |
| Chelsea | 11% | 9% | 6% |
| Man United vs Sheffield United (2.9%) | Home Win (74%) | Draw (16%) | Away Win (11%) |
| Man United | 64% | 51% | 44% |
| Newcastle | 32% | 42% | 47% |
| Chelsea | 7% | 11% | 12% |
| Arsenal vs Chelsea (2.1%) | Home Win (67%) | Draw (18%) | Away Win (14%) |
| Chelsea | 6% | 9% | 19% |
| Man United | 61% | 59% | 54% |
| Newcastle | 36% | 35% | 31% |
| Man United | Newcastle | Chelsea | |||||||
| points | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance |
| 68 | 1.0% | 1.0% | >99.99% | < 1% | < 1% | 90% | < 1% | < 1% | 95% |
| 67 | 1.0% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 66 | 4.2% | 3.2% | 99.6% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 84% | < 1% | < 1% | 84% |
| 65 | 9% | 4.7% | 97.0% | 6% | 3.3% | 79% | < 1% | < 1% | 77% |
| 64 | 13% | 3.9% | 96.3% | 9% | 2.8% | 78% | 1.4% | < 1% | 70% |
| 63 | 24% | 11% | 88% | 18% | 9% | 71% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 59% |
| 62 | 35% | 10% | 79% | 26% | 9% | 60% | 6% | 2.9% | 45% |
| 61 | 45% | 10% | 71% | 35% | 9% | 53% | 10% | 3.7% | 33% |
| 60 | 60% | 15% | 56% | 50% | 15% | 40% | 18% | 8% | 21% |
| 59 | 71% | 11% | 45% | 61% | 11% | 26% | 26% | 8% | 12% |
| 58 | 80% | 9% | 36% | 72% | 10% | 18% | 35% | 9% | 6% |
| 57 | 89% | 9% | 29% | 83% | 11% | 9% | 48% | 13% | 2.6% |
| 56 | 94% | 4.9% | 25% | 90% | 7% | 3.7% | 59% | 11% | < 1% |
| 55 | 96.6% | 3.0% | 25% | 94% | 4.6% | 2.0% | 69% | 11% | < 1% |
| 54 | 98.7% | 2.1% | 24% | 97.5% | 3.4% | < 1% | 80% | 11% | < 1% |
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points
| Important matches for Europe race (ECL, EL or CL) | |||
| Crystal Palace vs Newcastle (5.2%) | Home Win (38%) | Draw (24%) | Away Win (38%) |
| Newcastle | 69% | 78% | 90% |
| Chelsea | 37% | 32% | 25% |
| Arsenal vs Chelsea (4.6%) | Home Win (67%) | Draw (18%) | Away Win (14%) |
| Chelsea | 26% | 35% | 53% |
| Newcastle | 82% | 78% | 68% |
| Man United | 87% | 84% | 78% |
| Man United vs Sheffield United (2.9%) | Home Win (74%) | Draw (16%) | Away Win (11%) |
| Man United | 89% | 78% | 70% |
| Chelsea | 30% | 36% | 40% |
| Man United | Newcastle | Chelsea | Brighton | West Ham | |||||||||||
| points | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance |
| 66 | 4.2% | 3.2% | 100% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 100% | < 1% | < 1% | 99% | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 65 | 9% | 4.7% | 99.97% | 6% | 3.3% | 99.9% | < 1% | < 1% | 99% | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 64 | 13% | 3.9% | 99.97% | 9% | 2.8% | 99.9% | 1.4% | < 1% | 98% | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 63 | 24% | 11% | 99.7% | 18% | 9% | 99.6% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 96% | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 62 | 35% | 10% | 98.9% | 26% | 9% | 98.7% | 6% | 2.9% | 91% | < 1% | < 1% | 97% | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 61 | 45% | 10% | 97.6% | 35% | 9% | 97.1% | 10% | 3.7% | 85% | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 60 | 60% | 15% | 93% | 50% | 15% | 94% | 18% | 8% | 74% | < 1% | < 1% | 84% | < 1% | < 1% | 65% |
| 59 | 71% | 11% | 87% | 61% | 11% | 87% | 26% | 8% | 60% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 64% | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 58 | 80% | 9% | 79% | 72% | 10% | 79% | 35% | 9% | 47% | 3.4% | 1.2% | 52% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 35% |
| 57 | 89% | 9% | 64% | 83% | 11% | 65% | 48% | 13% | 31% | 8% | 4.5% | 29% | 9% | 6% | 17% |
| 56 | 94% | 4.9% | 49% | 90% | 7% | 45% | 59% | 11% | 18% | 13% | 5% | 13% | 11% | 2.2% | 9% |
| 55 | 96.6% | 3.0% | 40% | 94% | 4.6% | 32% | 69% | 11% | 10% | 19% | 6% | 6% | 24% | 13% | 3.4% |
| 54 | 98.7% | 2.1% | 30% | 97.5% | 3.4% | 15% | 80% | 11% | 4.1% | 31% | 12% | 1.7% | 42% | 18% | < 1% |
| 53 | 99.51% | < 1% | 25% | 99.0% | 1.5% | 5% | 87% | 7% | 1.5% | 41% | 11% | < 1% | 50% | 8% | < 1% |
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points
| Important matches for avoiding relegation | |||
| Sheffield United vs Burnley (2.6%) | Home Win (43%) | Draw (24%) | Away Win (33%) |
| Burnley | 1.2% | 2.9% | 9% |
| Forest | 69% | 69% | 65% |
| Burnley | Luton | Forest | |||||||
| points | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance |
| 36 | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - | 2.2% | 1.7% | 99.9% |
| 35 | < 1% | < 1% | 98% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 94% | 7% | 4.5% | 99.8% |
| 34 | < 1% | < 1% | - | 4.6% | 3.2% | 92% | 9% | 2.2% | 98.8% |
| 33 | < 1% | < 1% | 87% | 6% | 1.5% | 81% | 20% | 11% | 95.6% |
| 32 | 1.5% | 1.1% | 68% | 15% | 9% | 66% | 33% | 14% | 94% |
| 31 | 2.2% | < 1% | 55% | 28% | 13% | 57% | 42% | 9% | 85% |
| 30 | 6% | 3.8% | 34% | 35% | 8% | 38% | 61% | 19% | 71% |
| 29 | 12% | 6% | 14% | 55% | 20% | 21% | 77% | 16% | 60% |
| 28 | 17% | 4.9% | 7% | 73% | 18% | 12% | 84% | 7% | 39% |
| 27 | 30% | 13% | 1.4% | 81% | 8% | 3.5% | 95% | 10% | 20% |
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points
| Europe | EL (or CL) | CL | |
| Fourth team | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Fifth team | 100% | 100% | 3.9% |
| FA cup winners | 100% | 100% | 77% |
| League cup winners | 100% | 100% | >99.99% |
| Sixth team | 100% | 88% | < 1% |
| Seventh team | 95.5% | 11% | < 1% |
| Eighth team | 8% | 3.8% | < 1% |
Simulated points for winner: 86 - 89
Simulated points for fourth: 70 - 74
Simulated points for 17th team: 30 - 32
Coming Matches
| Home | Draw | Away | ||
| Sheffield United | 43% | 24% | 33% | Burnley |
| Arsenal | 67% | 18% | 14% | Chelsea |
| Wolves | 54% | 22% | 24% | Bournemouth |
| Everton | 22% | 22% | 56% | Liverpool |
| Man United | 74% | 16% | 11% | Sheffield United |
| Crystal Palace | 38% | 24% | 38% | Newcastle |
| Brighton | 21% | 21% | 58% | Man City |
Most likely combo of teams in CL
| 78% | Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City |
| 18% | Arsenal, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham |
| 3.7% | Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham |
Most likely combo of teams being relegated
| 68% | Burnley, Luton, Sheffield United |
| 28% | Burnley, Forest, Sheffield United |
| 4.2% | Forest, Luton, Sheffield United |
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