Europa: Final Four - Real Madrid, Leverkusen and Aston Villa favourites.

Real Madrid, Leverkusen, and Aston Villa are favourites in the three tournamenents, as detailed in tables below. Italy has clinched a bonus spot in next year's Champions League, while Germany is great favourite to grab the other bonus spot. They clinch the spot if any of the three remaining German teams win a tournament or if Aston Villa fail to reach the final. More details at the bottom.

In practice, a German team reaching the finals is most likely sufficient. It's mathematically possible that Germany misses the bonus spot with a team in the finals, but that possibility is mostly mathematical.

Champions League

Team	Final	Champion
Real Madrid	55%	33%
Bayern	45%	26%
Paris SG	53%	23%
Dortmund	47%	18%

 Europa League

Team	Final	Champion
Leverkusen	63%	40%
Atalanta	59%	25%
Roma	37%	20%
Marseille	41%	15%

 Europa Conference League

Team	Final	Champion
Aston Villa	84%	53%
Fiorentina	62%	27%
Brugge	38%	14%
Olympiakos	16%	6%

 Which countries get extra CL spots

		Score
Country	Probability	Average	Min	Max
ITA	100%	20.89	19.57	22.29
GER	96.1%	19.41	18.07	20.78
ENG	3.9%	18.35	17.75	18.63
FRA	< 1%	16.67	15.75	18.08

Important factors
GER 99.91% if Leverkusen reaches the EL final; otherwise 90%
GER 99.89% if Dortmund reaches the CL final; otherwise 93%
GER 99.92% if Bayern reaches the CL final; otherwise 93%
GER 100% if Leverkusen wins the Europa League; otherwise 93%
GER 100% if Bayern wins the Champions League; otherwise 95%
GER 100% if Dortmund wins the Champions League; otherwise 95%
ENG 4.6% if Aston Villa reaches the ECL final; otherwise 0%
ENG 6% if Aston Villa wins the Europa Conference League; otherwise 1.6%