CL: Semifinal 1 - Leg 1

 A draw in Bavaria and advantage Real Madrid in the first semi final.

Germany chances to win the 2nd CL bonus spot decreased slightly, but they only need a team in one of the finals to clinch the spot.

Champions League

Team	Final	Champion
Real Madrid	66%	40%
Paris SG	55%	23%
Bayern	34%	19%
Dortmund	45%	17%

 

 Which countries get extra CL spots

		Score
Country	Probability	Average	Min	Max
ITA	100%	20.89	19.57	22.29
GER	95.7%	19.34	18.21	20.64
ENG	4.3%	18.35	17.75	18.63

Important factors
GER 100% if Leverkusen reaches the EL final; otherwise 88%
GER 100% if Dortmund reaches the CL final; otherwise 92%
GER 100% if Leverkusen wins the Europa League; otherwise 93%
GER 99.97% if Bayern reaches the CL final; otherwise 94%
ENG 6.8% if Aston Villa wins the Europa Conference League; otherwise 1.5%
GER 100% if Bayern wins the Champions League; otherwise 95%
GER 100% if Dortmund wins the Champions League; otherwise 95%
ENG 5.1% if Aston Villa reaches the ECL final; otherwise 0%