ECL: Chelsea and Fiorentina favorites

Nine of the 24 knockout slots have been clinched and another three teams advance to the knockout stage in more than 99% of the simulations. Typically 7 points are required to finish among the top-24 and 12 points to finish top-8 (and advance automatically to the the round of 16).

Europa Conference League

Pos	Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Top 24	Top 16	Top 8	R16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
1	12	Chelsea	18	25-5	100%	100%	99.99%	>99.99%	91%	78%	63%	32%
2	12	Legia	15	15-3	100%	100%	98.5%	99.51%	54%	20%	6%	2.8%
3	9	Fiorentina	13	15-8	100%	99.19%	87%	98.9%	85%	66%	46%	23%
4	10	Jagiellonia	13	12-5	100%	99.88%	78%	92%	43%	14%	3.1%	1.6%
5	9	Heidenheim	13	11-8	100%	96.6%	74%	95.1%	67%	39%	18%	9%
6	10	Guimaraes	13	11-8	100%	99.0%	64%	91%	55%	27%	10%	5%
7	10	Rapid Wien	13	9-6	100%	98.1%	62%	86%	40%	13%	3.3%	1.7%
8	9	Lugano	12	9-6	100%	89%	50%	79%	34%	11%	2.4%	1.2%
9	6	Gent	12	11-9	99.39%	89%	43%	86%	53%	27%	11%	5%
10	9	Olimpija Ljubljana	12	9-7	100%	86%	42%	72%	26%	7%	1.2%	< 1%
11	8	Shamrock	11	9-11	99.97%	61%	6%	29%	3.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
12	7	Cercle Brugge	10	12-7	99.67%	74%	25%	71%	31%	11%	2.9%	1.4%
13	4	Betis	10	11-8	97.6%	70%	< 1%	82%	52%	32%	17%	8%
14	7	APOEL	10	7-5	97.4%	70%	20%	53%	14%	2.8%	< 1%	< 1%
15	7	Djurgarden	10	10-9	98.3%	68%	19%	58%	18%	4.6%	< 1%	< 1%
16	4	Panathinaikos	10	8-8	93%	54%	< 1%	61%	26%	11%	3.3%	1.6%
17	6	Paphos	9	10-8	91%	47%	11%	50%	16%	4.2%	< 1%	< 1%
18	5	FC Kobenhavn	9	8-7	90%	40%	5%	67%	36%	18%	7%	3.5%
19	7	Borac Banja Luka	9	6-6	92%	42%	7%	25%	2.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
20	6	Hearts	9	6-7	88%	28%	3.2%	37%	9%	1.8%	< 1%	< 1%
21	7	Vikingur	8	6-7	90%	34%	3.8%	22%	2.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
22	4	Celje	7	14-12	79%	17%	< 1%	29%	6%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%
23	3	Molde	7	8-8	67%	14%	< 1%	41%	18%	7%	2.2%	1.1%
24	4	Noah	7	5-13	38%	7%	< 1%	10%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
25	4	Backa Topola	6	10-11	44%	2.9%	< 1%	10%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
26	3	Omonia	6	8-9	46%	7%	< 1%	21%	6%	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%
27	3	Mlada Boleslav	6	6-12	20%	1.5%	< 1%	9%	2.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
28	2	LASK	5	5-9	5%	< 1%	< 1%	2.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
29	4	FK Astana	5	3-8	21%	1.6%	< 1%	7%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
30	4	StGallen	5	10-16	25%	2.9%	< 1%	12%	3.7%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%
31	2	Bueyueksehir	4	6-11	8%	< 1%	< 1%	3.7%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
32	3	The New Saints	3	7-11	7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
33	3	HJK Helsinki	3	1-8	2.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
34	0	Dinamo Minsk	3	5-13	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
35	1	Petrocub	1	4-14	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
36	0	Larne	0	3-14	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Expected Requirement

	Top 24		Top 16		Top 8
	Pts	GD	Pts	GD	Pts	GD
1%	8	9-12	10	10-6	13	13-8
5%	7	13-12	10	9-7	13	10-6
25%	7	9-11	10	8-8	12	13-7
50%	7	9-13	9	13-9	12	9-5
75%	7	5-12	9	9-8	12	9-8
95%	6	7-10	9	8-11	11	9-6
99%	6	4-12	8	9-8	11	6-5

Which countries get extra CL spots

		Score
Country	Probability	Average	Min	Max
ENG	96.6%	19.97	11.86	27.07
ITA	37%	15.8	9.5	23.38
POR	36%	15.69	8.8	26.6
ESP	16%	14.59	7.93	23.14
GER	8%	13.99	8.56	24.14
BEL	5%	13.47	8	22.7
CYP	1.2%	11.86	7.33	22.67
FRA	< 1%	10.92	6.21	20.14
CZE	< 1%	10.95	7.1	19.5
GRE	< 1%	10.4	5.88	20
NED	< 1%	10.54	5.67	20.33
TUR	< 1%	10.73	6.5	18.8
DEN	< 1%	8.54	5.25	16.25
NOR	< 1%	8.48	5.38	16.13
SWE	< 1%	9.26	6.75	18.5
UKR	< 1%	5.74	3.5	19.5
POL	< 1%	10.13	7	15.25

Number of quarterfinalists from POR; 278 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4
Probability	13%	36%	35%	14%	2.0%
Chance if	1.3%	14%	49%	84%	98.2%

Number of semifinalists from POR; 224 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	43%	42%	14%	1.8%
Chance if	11%	43%	83%	99.0%

Number of quarterfinalists from ITA; 220 mbit

n	1	2	3	4	5	6
Probability	3.1%	15%	32%	32%	15%	2.9%
Chance if	< 1%	4.7%	21%	48%	75%	92%

Number of semifinalists from ITA; 212 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4	5
Probability	5%	24%	37%	25%	8%	< 1%
Chance if	2.1%	10%	30%	61%	87%	98%

Number of teams in last-16 stage from POR; 204 mbit

n	1	2	3	4	5
Probability	4.6%	22%	40%	27%	6%
Chance if	< 1%	7%	31%	62%	86%

Number of quarterfinalists from ESP; 189 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4	5
Probability	2.1%	13%	30%	33%	17%	4.1%
Chance if	< 1%	< 1%	2.2%	14%	43%	74%

Number of semifinalists from ESP; 186 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4
Probability	18%	38%	31%	12%	2.0%
Chance if	< 1%	4.0%	20%	55%	88%

Number of teams in last-16 stage from ITA; 109 mbit

n	3	4	5	6	7
Probability	1.0%	9%	31%	41%	17%
Chance if	1%	7%	22%	43%	65%

Number of quarterfinalists from GER; 107 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
Probability	1.4%	10%	27%	34%	21%	6%	< 1%
Chance if	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	3.4%	15%	42%	74%

Number of semifinalists from GER; 103 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4
Probability	18%	38%	31%	11%	1.9%
Chance if	< 1%	1.4%	8%	29%	63%

 

EL: Bilbao, Lazio and Frankfurt clinch knockout stage

 Bilbao, Lazio and Frankfurt have clinched a place in the knockout stage, and another seven teams are very likely (>99.8%) to join them. Around 9-10 points are expected to be required to advance to the knockout stage and to be seeded among the top-8  around 14-15 points are expected to be required.

 Europa League

Pos	Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Top 24	Top 16	Top 8	R16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
1	13	Bilbao	19	13-6	100%	99.96%	94%	98.3%	63%	35%	19%	9%
2	13	Lazio	18	19-6	100%	99.99%	94%	98.7%	71%	46%	29%	14%
3	13	Frankfurt	17	12-6	100%	99.83%	89%	96.2%	56%	28%	13%	7%
4	10	Ajax	16	17-7	>99.99%	96.7%	69%	87%	44%	18%	7%	3.6%
5	10	Tottenham	16	16-8	99.99%	97.8%	75%	95%	68%	46%	29%	15%
6	10	Lyon	16	14-7	>99.99%	95.9%	66%	88%	50%	25%	12%	6%
7	11	Galatasaray	16	19-13	>99.99%	97.1%	72%	90%	49%	23%	10%	4.9%
8	9	Man United	15	17-11	99.77%	93%	61%	89%	57%	34%	19%	9%
9	11	Anderlecht	14	14-11	>99.99%	84%	39%	69%	26%	9%	2.6%	1.3%
10	10	Rangers	13	18-14	99.83%	76%	26%	58%	18%	5%	1.4%	< 1%
11	7	Sociedad	13	15-15	94%	61%	10%	62%	30%	14%	6%	3.1%
12	9	Viktoria Plzen	12	15-12	96.1%	64%	19%	56%	20%	7%	2.0%	1.0%
13	8	Olympiakos	12	8-5	93%	61%	13%	52%	19%	7%	2.1%	1.1%
14	9	Ferencvaros	12	14-12	95%	54%	11%	33%	6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
15	6	Roma	12	10-8	89%	54%	12%	66%	39%	22%	12%	6%
16	8	Fenerbahce	12	13-13	91%	56%	15%	59%	27%	12%	4.7%	2.4%
17	5	Porto	11	20-12	88%	53%	7%	67%	41%	26%	15%	8%
18	7	Bodoe Glimt	11	16-13	89%	50%	8%	44%	14%	4.6%	1.3%	< 1%
19	10	Steaua	11	11-11	97.5%	46%	8%	27%	4.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
20	7	Alkmaar	11	10-11	78%	33%	4.6%	34%	10%	2.9%	< 1%	< 1%
21	4	Slavia Praha	10	11-8	75%	27%	< 1%	49%	26%	14%	7%	3.6%
22	7	Midtjylland	10	11-11	74%	27%	2.7%	35%	12%	4.0%	1.2%	< 1%
23	7	Braga	10	9-11	64%	19%	1.7%	31%	11%	3.9%	1.3%	< 1%
24	5	Hoffenheim	9	10-10	59%	17%	< 1%	31%	13%	5%	1.9%	< 1%
25	5	St Gillis	9	7-8	53%	15%	< 1%	23%	7%	2.3%	< 1%	< 1%
26	6	Besiktas	9	7-18	31%	7%	< 1%	10%	2.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
27	4	PAOK	8	9-14	29%	4.0%	< 1%	11%	2.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
28	3	Twente	7	7-9	29%	4.4%	< 1%	13%	4.1%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%
29	2	Nice	7	12-16	19%	< 1%	< 1%	11%	4.8%	2.2%	< 1%	< 1%
30	4	Elfsborg	7	9-16	14%	< 1%	< 1%	3.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
31	3	M Tel Aviv	7	9-16	17%	2.3%	< 1%	6%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
32	3	Karabakh Agdam	7	9-19	14%	1.9%	< 1%	4.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
33	3	Malmoe	6	7-15	8%	< 1%	< 1%	2.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
34	2	Razgrad	5	5-11	4.4%	< 1%	< 1%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
35	0	Dynamo Kyiv	3	7-17	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
36	2	RFS	3	7-20	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Expected Requirement

	Top 24		Top 16		Top 8
	Pts	GD	Pts	GD	Pts	GD
1%	10	12-10	13	13-9	16	21-11
5%	10	11-12	13	10-8	16	18-12
25%	10	10-16	12	15-12	15	16-9
50%	9	10-11	12	9-8	15	17-14
75%	9	13-17	11	13-9	14	16-9
95%	8	9-11	11	11-11	14	11-8
99%	8	7-11	11	7-9	13	17-10

Which countries get extra CL spots

		Score
Country	Probability	Average	Min	Max
ENG	96.4%	19.97	11.93	27.43
ITA	35%	15.8	9.19	22.94
POR	35%	15.7	8.6	26.6
ESP	17%	14.74	8.07	23
GER	7%	14	8.56	22.07
BEL	6%	13.65	8	23.7
CYP	2.5%	12.57	7.33	23.83
FRA	< 1%	10.92	6.36	19.43
GRE	< 1%	10.39	5.88	20.38
NED	< 1%	10.54	5.83	20.08
CZE	< 1%	10.6	6.7	19.9
TUR	< 1%	10.73	6.5	19.6
DEN	< 1%	8.54	5.25	16
SWE	< 1%	9.26	6.75	18.5
NOR	< 1%	8.47	5.38	16
UKR	< 1%	5.74	3.5	17

Number of quarterfinalists from POR; 278 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4
Probability	13%	37%	35%	13%	2.0%
Chance if	1.1%	14%	48%	84%	98.3%

Number of semifinalists from POR; 225 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	43%	41%	14%	1.7%
Chance if	11%	42%	82%	98.9%

Number of quarterfinalists from ITA; 222 mbit

n	1	2	3	4	5	6
Probability	3.2%	15%	32%	32%	15%	2.9%
Chance if	< 1%	4.2%	19%	47%	74%	92%

Number of semifinalists from ITA; 216 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4	5
Probability	5%	24%	37%	25%	7%	< 1%
Chance if	1.7%	9%	29%	60%	86%	98%

Number of teams in last-16 stage from POR; 203 mbit

n	1	2	3	4	5
Probability	4.7%	22%	40%	27%	6%
Chance if	< 1%	7%	30%	61%	85%

Number of quarterfinalists from ESP; 186 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4	5
Probability	1.6%	11%	28%	34%	19%	4.9%
Chance if	< 1%	< 1%	2.1%	13%	41%	72%

Number of semifinalists from ESP; 184 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4
Probability	16%	37%	32%	13%	2.3%
Chance if	< 1%	4.2%	20%	53%	86%

Number of teams in last-16 stage from ITA; 111 mbit

n	3	4	5	6	7
Probability	1.1%	9%	31%	41%	17%
Chance if	< 1%	7%	20%	42%	64%

Number of quarterfinalists from GER; 106 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
Probability	1.5%	10%	27%	34%	21%	6%	< 1%
Chance if	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	3.2%	15%	41%	74%

Number of semifinalists from GER; 102 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4
Probability	18%	38%	31%	11%	1.8%
Chance if	< 1%	1.3%	8%	28%	63%

 

CL: Man City predicted to miss top-8

Man City are no longer predicted to finish top-8 (25%) but are still favorites to win the tournament (20%). Liverpool, Inter, Dortmund, Barcelona, and Atalanta reach the knockout stage in all simulations, while Arsenal, Leverkusen and Bayern reach it in more than 99.9% of the simulations. 10 points, possibly 11 are predicted to be required to finish top-24. Similarly, 16 points are predicted to be required to finish top-8.

Champions League

Pos	Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Top 24	Top 16	Top 8	R16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
1	15	Liverpool	21	19-7	100%	>99.99%	97.8%	99.43%	67%	40%	22%	11%
2	13	Inter	19	11-3	100%	99.23%	86%	96.5%	65%	39%	22%	11%
3	12	Dortmund	18	19-10	100%	98.7%	78%	91%	43%	17%	6%	3.0%
4	12	Barcelona	17	20-6	100%	97.1%	73%	92%	56%	30%	15%	7%
5	10	Arsenal	17	14-4	>99.99%	97.7%	76%	94%	63%	38%	22%	11%
6	10	Leverkusen	16	18-12	99.97%	90%	47%	83%	48%	25%	12%	6%
7	11	Atalanta	15	21-6	100%	95%	54%	82%	42%	18%	7%	3.7%
8	9	Bayern	15	22-10	99.90%	91%	48%	82%	46%	23%	11%	5%
9	9	Milan	15	20-13	99.63%	86%	39%	70%	28%	10%	3.0%	1.5%
10	9	Atletico	15	18-14	99.71%	80%	29%	63%	23%	8%	2.3%	1.1%
11	10	Lille	15	10-6	99.83%	80%	29%	64%	25%	8%	2.6%	1.3%
12	8	Man City	14	20-10	99.0%	76%	25%	88%	69%	53%	40%	20%
13	10	Sporting	14	17-10	99.79%	79%	31%	71%	33%	14%	5%	2.7%
14	10	Aston Villa	14	10-4	99.89%	77%	28%	66%	28%	11%	3.6%	1.8%
15	10	Brest	14	13-11	99.51%	64%	19%	47%	12%	2.8%	< 1%	< 1%
16	9	Benfica	13	13-11	96.9%	47%	9%	46%	15%	4.4%	1.2%	< 1%
17	10	Monaco	13	17-16	99.46%	47%	9%	48%	16%	4.8%	1.3%	< 1%
18	8	PSV	12	15-11	95%	45%	8%	51%	19%	7%	2.3%	1.2%
19	6	Real Madrid	12	15-12	93%	33%	1.8%	65%	38%	23%	12%	6%
20	8	Juventus	12	11-8	93%	42%	6%	51%	21%	8%	2.9%	1.5%
21	8	Celtic	12	15-15	92%	37%	4.0%	28%	5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
22	7	Feyenoord	11	13-16	81%	18%	2.1%	32%	9%	2.7%	< 1%	< 1%
23	4	Stuttgart	10	11-14	68%	6%	< 1%	30%	11%	3.7%	1.1%	< 1%
24	7	Brugge	10	9-17	53%	4.8%	< 1%	14%	2.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
25	7	Dinamo Zagreb	10	13-24	47%	3.7%	< 1%	6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
26	4	Paris SG	8	9-10	47%	3.9%	< 1%	28%	14%	7%	3.4%	1.7%
27	4	Shakhtar	6	7-12	9%	< 1%	< 1%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
28	0	RB Leipzig	6	6-11	5%	< 1%	< 1%	2.6%	1.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
29	3	Girona	6	8-17	6%	< 1%	< 1%	2.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
30	4	Sparta Praha	6	9-20	7%	< 1%	< 1%	2.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
31	3	Crvena Zvezda	6	11-24	4.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
32	1	Bologna	4	4-11	2.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
33	3	Sturm Graz	4	5-13	1.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
34	3	Salzburg	4	4-18	1.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
35	0	Young Boys	3	4-23	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
36	0	Slovan Bratislava	0	5-22	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

 

 Which countries get extra CL spots

		Score
Country	Probability	Average	Min	Max
ENG	96.3%	19.82	11.36	27.14
ITA	39%	15.8	9.31	23.06
POR	33%	15.45	8.3	26.6
ESP	16%	14.48	7.57	22.57
GER	10%	14.17	8.44	22.64
BEL	3.4%	13	7	23.3
CYP	1.4%	11.77	6.67	23.5
FRA	< 1%	11.24	5.93	20
NED	< 1%	11.03	5.83	19.58
TUR	< 1%	10.89	5.9	19.9
GRE	< 1%	10.1	5.13	19.38
CZE	< 1%	10.72	6.3	19.4
UKR	< 1%	6.3	3.5	21.5
SWE	< 1%	9.4	6.25	19
DEN	< 1%	8.63	4.75	16.25
NOR	< 1%	9.31	5.38	16.5
POL	< 1%	9.9	6.25	15.25

Number of quarterfinalists from POR; 265 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4
Probability	12%	36%	36%	14%	1.8%
Chance if	< 1%	11%	43%	81%	98%

Number of quarterfinalists from ITA; 230 mbit

n	1	2	3	4	5	6
Probability	3.3%	15%	32%	32%	14%	2.8%
Chance if	< 1%	6%	23%	52%	79%	93%

Number of semifinalists from ITA; 220 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4	5
Probability	6%	24%	37%	25%	7%	< 1%
Chance if	2.3%	11%	33%	64%	89%	99%

Number of semifinalists from POR; 218 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	42%	42%	14%	1.8%
Chance if	9%	38%	79%	98.5%

Number of teams in last-16 stage from POR; 192 mbit

n	1	2	3	4	5
Probability	4.6%	23%	43%	26%	3.8%
Chance if	< 1%	6%	29%	61%	87%

Number of quarterfinalists from ESP; 183 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4	5
Probability	1.9%	12%	30%	34%	18%	4.1%
Chance if	< 1%	< 1%	2.0%	13%	41%	73%

Number of semifinalists from ESP; 178 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4
Probability	17%	38%	32%	12%	2.0%
Chance if	< 1%	3.8%	19%	52%	86%

Number of quarterfinalists from GER; 129 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
Probability	1.4%	10%	26%	34%	21%	6%	< 1%
Chance if	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	5%	20%	48%	78%

Number of semifinalists from GER; 124 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4
Probability	18%	38%	30%	11%	1.9%
Chance if	< 1%	2.3%	12%	36%	71%

Number of teams in last-16 stage from ITA; 117 mbit

n	3	4	5	6	7
Probability	1.1%	10%	32%	40%	16%
Chance if	1%	8%	24%	46%	69%