CL: Man City predicted to miss top-8

Man City are no longer predicted to finish top-8 (25%) but are still favorites to win the tournament (20%). Liverpool, Inter, Dortmund, Barcelona, and Atalanta reach the knockout stage in all simulations, while Arsenal, Leverkusen and Bayern reach it in more than 99.9% of the simulations. 10 points, possibly 11 are predicted to be required to finish top-24. Similarly, 16 points are predicted to be required to finish top-8.

Champions League

Pos	Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Top 24	Top 16	Top 8	R16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
1	15	Liverpool	21	19-7	100%	>99.99%	97.8%	99.43%	67%	40%	22%	11%
2	13	Inter	19	11-3	100%	99.23%	86%	96.5%	65%	39%	22%	11%
3	12	Dortmund	18	19-10	100%	98.7%	78%	91%	43%	17%	6%	3.0%
4	12	Barcelona	17	20-6	100%	97.1%	73%	92%	56%	30%	15%	7%
5	10	Arsenal	17	14-4	>99.99%	97.7%	76%	94%	63%	38%	22%	11%
6	10	Leverkusen	16	18-12	99.97%	90%	47%	83%	48%	25%	12%	6%
7	11	Atalanta	15	21-6	100%	95%	54%	82%	42%	18%	7%	3.7%
8	9	Bayern	15	22-10	99.90%	91%	48%	82%	46%	23%	11%	5%
9	9	Milan	15	20-13	99.63%	86%	39%	70%	28%	10%	3.0%	1.5%
10	9	Atletico	15	18-14	99.71%	80%	29%	63%	23%	8%	2.3%	1.1%
11	10	Lille	15	10-6	99.83%	80%	29%	64%	25%	8%	2.6%	1.3%
12	8	Man City	14	20-10	99.0%	76%	25%	88%	69%	53%	40%	20%
13	10	Sporting	14	17-10	99.79%	79%	31%	71%	33%	14%	5%	2.7%
14	10	Aston Villa	14	10-4	99.89%	77%	28%	66%	28%	11%	3.6%	1.8%
15	10	Brest	14	13-11	99.51%	64%	19%	47%	12%	2.8%	< 1%	< 1%
16	9	Benfica	13	13-11	96.9%	47%	9%	46%	15%	4.4%	1.2%	< 1%
17	10	Monaco	13	17-16	99.46%	47%	9%	48%	16%	4.8%	1.3%	< 1%
18	8	PSV	12	15-11	95%	45%	8%	51%	19%	7%	2.3%	1.2%
19	6	Real Madrid	12	15-12	93%	33%	1.8%	65%	38%	23%	12%	6%
20	8	Juventus	12	11-8	93%	42%	6%	51%	21%	8%	2.9%	1.5%
21	8	Celtic	12	15-15	92%	37%	4.0%	28%	5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
22	7	Feyenoord	11	13-16	81%	18%	2.1%	32%	9%	2.7%	< 1%	< 1%
23	4	Stuttgart	10	11-14	68%	6%	< 1%	30%	11%	3.7%	1.1%	< 1%
24	7	Brugge	10	9-17	53%	4.8%	< 1%	14%	2.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
25	7	Dinamo Zagreb	10	13-24	47%	3.7%	< 1%	6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
26	4	Paris SG	8	9-10	47%	3.9%	< 1%	28%	14%	7%	3.4%	1.7%
27	4	Shakhtar	6	7-12	9%	< 1%	< 1%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
28	0	RB Leipzig	6	6-11	5%	< 1%	< 1%	2.6%	1.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
29	3	Girona	6	8-17	6%	< 1%	< 1%	2.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
30	4	Sparta Praha	6	9-20	7%	< 1%	< 1%	2.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
31	3	Crvena Zvezda	6	11-24	4.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
32	1	Bologna	4	4-11	2.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
33	3	Sturm Graz	4	5-13	1.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
34	3	Salzburg	4	4-18	1.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
35	0	Young Boys	3	4-23	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
36	0	Slovan Bratislava	0	5-22	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

 

 Which countries get extra CL spots

		Score
Country	Probability	Average	Min	Max
ENG	96.3%	19.82	11.36	27.14
ITA	39%	15.8	9.31	23.06
POR	33%	15.45	8.3	26.6
ESP	16%	14.48	7.57	22.57
GER	10%	14.17	8.44	22.64
BEL	3.4%	13	7	23.3
CYP	1.4%	11.77	6.67	23.5
FRA	< 1%	11.24	5.93	20
NED	< 1%	11.03	5.83	19.58
TUR	< 1%	10.89	5.9	19.9
GRE	< 1%	10.1	5.13	19.38
CZE	< 1%	10.72	6.3	19.4
UKR	< 1%	6.3	3.5	21.5
SWE	< 1%	9.4	6.25	19
DEN	< 1%	8.63	4.75	16.25
NOR	< 1%	9.31	5.38	16.5
POL	< 1%	9.9	6.25	15.25

Number of quarterfinalists from POR; 265 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4
Probability	12%	36%	36%	14%	1.8%
Chance if	< 1%	11%	43%	81%	98%

Number of quarterfinalists from ITA; 230 mbit

n	1	2	3	4	5	6
Probability	3.3%	15%	32%	32%	14%	2.8%
Chance if	< 1%	6%	23%	52%	79%	93%

Number of semifinalists from ITA; 220 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4	5
Probability	6%	24%	37%	25%	7%	< 1%
Chance if	2.3%	11%	33%	64%	89%	99%

Number of semifinalists from POR; 218 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	42%	42%	14%	1.8%
Chance if	9%	38%	79%	98.5%

Number of teams in last-16 stage from POR; 192 mbit

n	1	2	3	4	5
Probability	4.6%	23%	43%	26%	3.8%
Chance if	< 1%	6%	29%	61%	87%

Number of quarterfinalists from ESP; 183 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4	5
Probability	1.9%	12%	30%	34%	18%	4.1%
Chance if	< 1%	< 1%	2.0%	13%	41%	73%

Number of semifinalists from ESP; 178 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4
Probability	17%	38%	32%	12%	2.0%
Chance if	< 1%	3.8%	19%	52%	86%

Number of quarterfinalists from GER; 129 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
Probability	1.4%	10%	26%	34%	21%	6%	< 1%
Chance if	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	5%	20%	48%	78%

Number of semifinalists from GER; 124 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4
Probability	18%	38%	30%	11%	1.9%
Chance if	< 1%	2.3%	12%	36%	71%

Number of teams in last-16 stage from ITA; 117 mbit

n	3	4	5	6	7
Probability	1.1%	10%	32%	40%	16%
Chance if	1%	8%	24%	46%	69%