EL: Bilbao, Lazio and Frankfurt clinch knockout stage

 Bilbao, Lazio and Frankfurt have clinched a place in the knockout stage, and another seven teams are very likely (>99.8%) to join them. Around 9-10 points are expected to be required to advance to the knockout stage and to be seeded among the top-8  around 14-15 points are expected to be required.

 Europa League

Pos	Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Top 24	Top 16	Top 8	R16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
1	13	Bilbao	19	13-6	100%	99.96%	94%	98.3%	63%	35%	19%	9%
2	13	Lazio	18	19-6	100%	99.99%	94%	98.7%	71%	46%	29%	14%
3	13	Frankfurt	17	12-6	100%	99.83%	89%	96.2%	56%	28%	13%	7%
4	10	Ajax	16	17-7	>99.99%	96.7%	69%	87%	44%	18%	7%	3.6%
5	10	Tottenham	16	16-8	99.99%	97.8%	75%	95%	68%	46%	29%	15%
6	10	Lyon	16	14-7	>99.99%	95.9%	66%	88%	50%	25%	12%	6%
7	11	Galatasaray	16	19-13	>99.99%	97.1%	72%	90%	49%	23%	10%	4.9%
8	9	Man United	15	17-11	99.77%	93%	61%	89%	57%	34%	19%	9%
9	11	Anderlecht	14	14-11	>99.99%	84%	39%	69%	26%	9%	2.6%	1.3%
10	10	Rangers	13	18-14	99.83%	76%	26%	58%	18%	5%	1.4%	< 1%
11	7	Sociedad	13	15-15	94%	61%	10%	62%	30%	14%	6%	3.1%
12	9	Viktoria Plzen	12	15-12	96.1%	64%	19%	56%	20%	7%	2.0%	1.0%
13	8	Olympiakos	12	8-5	93%	61%	13%	52%	19%	7%	2.1%	1.1%
14	9	Ferencvaros	12	14-12	95%	54%	11%	33%	6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
15	6	Roma	12	10-8	89%	54%	12%	66%	39%	22%	12%	6%
16	8	Fenerbahce	12	13-13	91%	56%	15%	59%	27%	12%	4.7%	2.4%
17	5	Porto	11	20-12	88%	53%	7%	67%	41%	26%	15%	8%
18	7	Bodoe Glimt	11	16-13	89%	50%	8%	44%	14%	4.6%	1.3%	< 1%
19	10	Steaua	11	11-11	97.5%	46%	8%	27%	4.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
20	7	Alkmaar	11	10-11	78%	33%	4.6%	34%	10%	2.9%	< 1%	< 1%
21	4	Slavia Praha	10	11-8	75%	27%	< 1%	49%	26%	14%	7%	3.6%
22	7	Midtjylland	10	11-11	74%	27%	2.7%	35%	12%	4.0%	1.2%	< 1%
23	7	Braga	10	9-11	64%	19%	1.7%	31%	11%	3.9%	1.3%	< 1%
24	5	Hoffenheim	9	10-10	59%	17%	< 1%	31%	13%	5%	1.9%	< 1%
25	5	St Gillis	9	7-8	53%	15%	< 1%	23%	7%	2.3%	< 1%	< 1%
26	6	Besiktas	9	7-18	31%	7%	< 1%	10%	2.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
27	4	PAOK	8	9-14	29%	4.0%	< 1%	11%	2.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
28	3	Twente	7	7-9	29%	4.4%	< 1%	13%	4.1%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%
29	2	Nice	7	12-16	19%	< 1%	< 1%	11%	4.8%	2.2%	< 1%	< 1%
30	4	Elfsborg	7	9-16	14%	< 1%	< 1%	3.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
31	3	M Tel Aviv	7	9-16	17%	2.3%	< 1%	6%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
32	3	Karabakh Agdam	7	9-19	14%	1.9%	< 1%	4.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
33	3	Malmoe	6	7-15	8%	< 1%	< 1%	2.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
34	2	Razgrad	5	5-11	4.4%	< 1%	< 1%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
35	0	Dynamo Kyiv	3	7-17	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
36	2	RFS	3	7-20	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Expected Requirement

	Top 24		Top 16		Top 8
	Pts	GD	Pts	GD	Pts	GD
1%	10	12-10	13	13-9	16	21-11
5%	10	11-12	13	10-8	16	18-12
25%	10	10-16	12	15-12	15	16-9
50%	9	10-11	12	9-8	15	17-14
75%	9	13-17	11	13-9	14	16-9
95%	8	9-11	11	11-11	14	11-8
99%	8	7-11	11	7-9	13	17-10

Which countries get extra CL spots

		Score
Country	Probability	Average	Min	Max
ENG	96.4%	19.97	11.93	27.43
ITA	35%	15.8	9.19	22.94
POR	35%	15.7	8.6	26.6
ESP	17%	14.74	8.07	23
GER	7%	14	8.56	22.07
BEL	6%	13.65	8	23.7
CYP	2.5%	12.57	7.33	23.83
FRA	< 1%	10.92	6.36	19.43
GRE	< 1%	10.39	5.88	20.38
NED	< 1%	10.54	5.83	20.08
CZE	< 1%	10.6	6.7	19.9
TUR	< 1%	10.73	6.5	19.6
DEN	< 1%	8.54	5.25	16
SWE	< 1%	9.26	6.75	18.5
NOR	< 1%	8.47	5.38	16
UKR	< 1%	5.74	3.5	17

Number of quarterfinalists from POR; 278 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4
Probability	13%	37%	35%	13%	2.0%
Chance if	1.1%	14%	48%	84%	98.3%

Number of semifinalists from POR; 225 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	43%	41%	14%	1.7%
Chance if	11%	42%	82%	98.9%

Number of quarterfinalists from ITA; 222 mbit

n	1	2	3	4	5	6
Probability	3.2%	15%	32%	32%	15%	2.9%
Chance if	< 1%	4.2%	19%	47%	74%	92%

Number of semifinalists from ITA; 216 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4	5
Probability	5%	24%	37%	25%	7%	< 1%
Chance if	1.7%	9%	29%	60%	86%	98%

Number of teams in last-16 stage from POR; 203 mbit

n	1	2	3	4	5
Probability	4.7%	22%	40%	27%	6%
Chance if	< 1%	7%	30%	61%	85%

Number of quarterfinalists from ESP; 186 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4	5
Probability	1.6%	11%	28%	34%	19%	4.9%
Chance if	< 1%	< 1%	2.1%	13%	41%	72%

Number of semifinalists from ESP; 184 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4
Probability	16%	37%	32%	13%	2.3%
Chance if	< 1%	4.2%	20%	53%	86%

Number of teams in last-16 stage from ITA; 111 mbit

n	3	4	5	6	7
Probability	1.1%	9%	31%	41%	17%
Chance if	< 1%	7%	20%	42%	64%

Number of quarterfinalists from GER; 106 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
Probability	1.5%	10%	27%	34%	21%	6%	< 1%
Chance if	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	3.2%	15%	41%	74%

Number of semifinalists from GER; 102 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4
Probability	18%	38%	31%	11%	1.8%
Chance if	< 1%	1.3%	8%	28%	63%