ECL: Chelsea and Fiorentina favorites

Nine of the 24 knockout slots have been clinched and another three teams advance to the knockout stage in more than 99% of the simulations. Typically 7 points are required to finish among the top-24 and 12 points to finish top-8 (and advance automatically to the the round of 16).

Europa Conference League

Pos	Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Top 24	Top 16	Top 8	R16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
1	12	Chelsea	18	25-5	100%	100%	99.99%	>99.99%	91%	78%	63%	32%
2	12	Legia	15	15-3	100%	100%	98.5%	99.51%	54%	20%	6%	2.8%
3	9	Fiorentina	13	15-8	100%	99.19%	87%	98.9%	85%	66%	46%	23%
4	10	Jagiellonia	13	12-5	100%	99.88%	78%	92%	43%	14%	3.1%	1.6%
5	9	Heidenheim	13	11-8	100%	96.6%	74%	95.1%	67%	39%	18%	9%
6	10	Guimaraes	13	11-8	100%	99.0%	64%	91%	55%	27%	10%	5%
7	10	Rapid Wien	13	9-6	100%	98.1%	62%	86%	40%	13%	3.3%	1.7%
8	9	Lugano	12	9-6	100%	89%	50%	79%	34%	11%	2.4%	1.2%
9	6	Gent	12	11-9	99.39%	89%	43%	86%	53%	27%	11%	5%
10	9	Olimpija Ljubljana	12	9-7	100%	86%	42%	72%	26%	7%	1.2%	< 1%
11	8	Shamrock	11	9-11	99.97%	61%	6%	29%	3.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
12	7	Cercle Brugge	10	12-7	99.67%	74%	25%	71%	31%	11%	2.9%	1.4%
13	4	Betis	10	11-8	97.6%	70%	< 1%	82%	52%	32%	17%	8%
14	7	APOEL	10	7-5	97.4%	70%	20%	53%	14%	2.8%	< 1%	< 1%
15	7	Djurgarden	10	10-9	98.3%	68%	19%	58%	18%	4.6%	< 1%	< 1%
16	4	Panathinaikos	10	8-8	93%	54%	< 1%	61%	26%	11%	3.3%	1.6%
17	6	Paphos	9	10-8	91%	47%	11%	50%	16%	4.2%	< 1%	< 1%
18	5	FC Kobenhavn	9	8-7	90%	40%	5%	67%	36%	18%	7%	3.5%
19	7	Borac Banja Luka	9	6-6	92%	42%	7%	25%	2.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
20	6	Hearts	9	6-7	88%	28%	3.2%	37%	9%	1.8%	< 1%	< 1%
21	7	Vikingur	8	6-7	90%	34%	3.8%	22%	2.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
22	4	Celje	7	14-12	79%	17%	< 1%	29%	6%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%
23	3	Molde	7	8-8	67%	14%	< 1%	41%	18%	7%	2.2%	1.1%
24	4	Noah	7	5-13	38%	7%	< 1%	10%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
25	4	Backa Topola	6	10-11	44%	2.9%	< 1%	10%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
26	3	Omonia	6	8-9	46%	7%	< 1%	21%	6%	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%
27	3	Mlada Boleslav	6	6-12	20%	1.5%	< 1%	9%	2.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
28	2	LASK	5	5-9	5%	< 1%	< 1%	2.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
29	4	FK Astana	5	3-8	21%	1.6%	< 1%	7%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
30	4	StGallen	5	10-16	25%	2.9%	< 1%	12%	3.7%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%
31	2	Bueyueksehir	4	6-11	8%	< 1%	< 1%	3.7%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
32	3	The New Saints	3	7-11	7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
33	3	HJK Helsinki	3	1-8	2.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
34	0	Dinamo Minsk	3	5-13	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
35	1	Petrocub	1	4-14	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
36	0	Larne	0	3-14	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Expected Requirement

	Top 24		Top 16		Top 8
	Pts	GD	Pts	GD	Pts	GD
1%	8	9-12	10	10-6	13	13-8
5%	7	13-12	10	9-7	13	10-6
25%	7	9-11	10	8-8	12	13-7
50%	7	9-13	9	13-9	12	9-5
75%	7	5-12	9	9-8	12	9-8
95%	6	7-10	9	8-11	11	9-6
99%	6	4-12	8	9-8	11	6-5

Which countries get extra CL spots

		Score
Country	Probability	Average	Min	Max
ENG	96.6%	19.97	11.86	27.07
ITA	37%	15.8	9.5	23.38
POR	36%	15.69	8.8	26.6
ESP	16%	14.59	7.93	23.14
GER	8%	13.99	8.56	24.14
BEL	5%	13.47	8	22.7
CYP	1.2%	11.86	7.33	22.67
FRA	< 1%	10.92	6.21	20.14
CZE	< 1%	10.95	7.1	19.5
GRE	< 1%	10.4	5.88	20
NED	< 1%	10.54	5.67	20.33
TUR	< 1%	10.73	6.5	18.8
DEN	< 1%	8.54	5.25	16.25
NOR	< 1%	8.48	5.38	16.13
SWE	< 1%	9.26	6.75	18.5
UKR	< 1%	5.74	3.5	19.5
POL	< 1%	10.13	7	15.25

Number of quarterfinalists from POR; 278 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4
Probability	13%	36%	35%	14%	2.0%
Chance if	1.3%	14%	49%	84%	98.2%

Number of semifinalists from POR; 224 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	43%	42%	14%	1.8%
Chance if	11%	43%	83%	99.0%

Number of quarterfinalists from ITA; 220 mbit

n	1	2	3	4	5	6
Probability	3.1%	15%	32%	32%	15%	2.9%
Chance if	< 1%	4.7%	21%	48%	75%	92%

Number of semifinalists from ITA; 212 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4	5
Probability	5%	24%	37%	25%	8%	< 1%
Chance if	2.1%	10%	30%	61%	87%	98%

Number of teams in last-16 stage from POR; 204 mbit

n	1	2	3	4	5
Probability	4.6%	22%	40%	27%	6%
Chance if	< 1%	7%	31%	62%	86%

Number of quarterfinalists from ESP; 189 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4	5
Probability	2.1%	13%	30%	33%	17%	4.1%
Chance if	< 1%	< 1%	2.2%	14%	43%	74%

Number of semifinalists from ESP; 186 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4
Probability	18%	38%	31%	12%	2.0%
Chance if	< 1%	4.0%	20%	55%	88%

Number of teams in last-16 stage from ITA; 109 mbit

n	3	4	5	6	7
Probability	1.0%	9%	31%	41%	17%
Chance if	1%	7%	22%	43%	65%

Number of quarterfinalists from GER; 107 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
Probability	1.4%	10%	27%	34%	21%	6%	< 1%
Chance if	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	3.4%	15%	42%	74%

Number of semifinalists from GER; 103 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4
Probability	18%	38%	31%	11%	1.9%
Chance if	< 1%	1.4%	8%	29%	63%