PL: Liverpool favorites after winning against Man City

Liverpool are favorites after winning against Man City and have more than a 8-point gap down to Arsenal in average points in the simulations. Chelsea are favorites to join the top-3 clubs to CL and Tottenham finish top-5 in 35% of the simulations.

Hot Teams
Liverpool: 13 points in the last 5 matches, 3.3 more than expected
Chelsea: 11 points in the last 5 matches, 2.7 more than expected
Forest: 9 points in the last 5 matches, 2.3 more than expected
Brentford: 10 points in the last 5 matches, 1.9 more than expected
Bournemouth: 7 points in the last 5 matches, 1.7 more than expected

Cold Teams
Man City: 3 points in the last 5 matches, 6.5 less than expected
Aston Villa: 2 points in the last 5 matches, 4.2 less than expected
Leicester: 1 point in the last 5 matches, 4.2 less than expected
Everton: 3 points in the last 5 matches, 3.3 less than expected
Tottenham: 7 points in the last 5 matches, 1.2 less than expected

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
34	Liverpool	85.1	+46	< 1%	>99.99%	>99.99%	99.97%	99.83%	75%	< 1%	< 1%	99.97%
25	Arsenal	76.5	+40	< 1%	99.85%	99.58%	98.8%	96.1%	14%	< 1%	1.0%	98.8%
23	Man City	75.4	+33	< 1%	99.76%	99.37%	98.2%	94%	10%	< 1%	1.5%	98.2%
25	Chelsea	68.5	+27	< 1%	96.3%	93%	85%	69%	1.3%	1.5%	12%	84%
20	Tottenham	59.6	+22	< 1%	67%	53%	35%	14%	< 1%	11%	25%	44%
23	Brighton	58.4	+6	< 1%	56%	42%	25%	9%	< 1%	12%	28%	24%
19	Newcastle	57.5	+6	< 1%	51%	36%	21%	7%	< 1%	16%	29%	20%
19	Aston Villa	56.2	+1	< 1%	42%	28%	15%	4.9%	< 1%	12%	23%	16%
19	Man United	53.7	+4	< 1%	28%	17%	8%	2.2%	< 1%	12%	16%	16%
22	Forest	50.7	-7	< 1%	14%	8%	3.2%	< 1%	< 1%	6%	14%	3.1%
19	Fulham	50.6	-5	< 1%	14%	7%	3.2%	< 1%	< 1%	7%	10%	3.0%
20	Brentford	50.6	-4	< 1%	14%	8%	3.6%	< 1%	< 1%	9%	11%	3.4%
15	Bournemouth	48.8	-5	1.7%	9%	4.8%	1.9%	< 1%	< 1%	5%	7%	1.8%
15	West Ham	48.3	-10	2.0%	7%	3.7%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%	4.4%	7%	1.3%
11	Crystal Palace	42.6	-12	10%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.7%	3.2%	< 1%
8	Wolves	39.0	-18	26%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
11	Everton	38.9	-23	27%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
10	Leicester	34.7	-29	56%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.4%	< 1%
9	Ipswich	30.7	-34	81%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
5	Southampton	25.8	-39	95%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Important matches for title race
Newcastle vs Liverpool (2.2%)	Home Win (30%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (46%)
Liverpool	68%	73%	81%
Arsenal	17%	15%	11%
Man City	12%	10%	7%

	Liverpool			Arsenal			Man City			Chelsea
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
98	1.5%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
97	2.3%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
96	3.6%	1.2%	99.9%	< 1%	< 1%	98%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
95	5%	1.7%	99.9%	< 1%	< 1%	97%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
94	8%	2.3%	99.98%	< 1%	< 1%	96%	< 1%	< 1%	95%	< 1%	< 1%	-
93	10%	2.9%	99.8%	< 1%	< 1%	94%	< 1%	< 1%	95%	< 1%	< 1%	-
92	14%	3.6%	99.6%	< 1%	< 1%	90%	< 1%	< 1%	90%	< 1%	< 1%	-
91	18%	4.3%	99.3%	< 1%	< 1%	89%	< 1%	< 1%	86%	< 1%	< 1%	-
90	23%	4.9%	98.8%	1.1%	< 1%	83%	< 1%	< 1%	82%	< 1%	< 1%	75%
89	29%	6%	97.8%	1.8%	< 1%	79%	< 1%	< 1%	76%	< 1%	< 1%	80%
88	35%	6%	96.4%	2.9%	1.0%	72%	1.6%	< 1%	70%	< 1%	< 1%	69%
87	41%	6%	94%	4.3%	1.4%	66%	2.6%	< 1%	63%	< 1%	< 1%	65%
86	48%	7%	91%	6%	2.0%	58%	4.0%	1.4%	54%	< 1%	< 1%	59%
85	55%	7%	87%	9%	2.6%	51%	6%	1.9%	48%	< 1%	< 1%	49%
84	61%	6%	82%	12%	3.2%	43%	8%	2.5%	40%	< 1%	< 1%	39%
83	67%	6%	75%	16%	3.9%	36%	11%	3.2%	32%	1.1%	< 1%	30%
82	73%	6%	68%	20%	4.5%	28%	15%	3.9%	25%	1.7%	< 1%	24%
81	78%	5%	59%	26%	5%	21%	20%	4.6%	19%	2.5%	< 1%	17%
80	83%	4.5%	50%	31%	6%	16%	25%	5%	14%	3.7%	1.2%	12%
79	86%	3.9%	42%	38%	6%	12%	31%	6%	9%	5%	1.6%	8%
78	90%	3.2%	32%	44%	6%	8%	37%	6%	6%	7%	2.0%	5%
77	92%	2.6%	24%	51%	7%	5%	44%	7%	3.9%	10%	2.6%	3%
76	94%	2.1%	17%	57%	7%	3.1%	50%	7%	2.3%	13%	3.2%	1.6%
75	95.9%	1.6%	11%	64%	6%	1.8%	57%	7%	1.3%	17%	3.8%	< 1%
74	97.2%	1.2%	8%	69%	6%	< 1%	64%	6%	< 1%	21%	4.4%	< 1%
73	98.1%	< 1%	4%	75%	5%	< 1%	70%	6%	< 1%	26%	5%	< 1%
72	98.7%	< 1%	3%	80%	4.8%	< 1%	75%	6%	< 1%	32%	6%	< 1%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Coming Matches

Home		Draw		Away
Wolves	45%	24%	31%	Bournemouth
Ipswich	34%	24%	42%	Crystal Palace
Leicester	38%	24%	38%	West Ham
Everton	50%	23%	27%	Wolves
Newcastle	30%	24%	46%	Liverpool
Man City	78%	14%	9%	Forest
Southampton	20%	21%	59%	Chelsea
Arsenal	69%	17%	13%	Man United
Aston Villa	56%	22%	22%	Brentford
Fulham	45%	24%	31%	Brighton
Bournemouth	37%	24%	38%	Tottenham

Most likely combo of teams in CL

21%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham
12%	Arsenal, Brighton, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City
10%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Newcastle
8%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City
4.4%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
3.1%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Man United, Tottenham
3.1%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City
2.7%	Arsenal, Brighton, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham
2.3%	Arsenal, Brighton, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham
2.2%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Newcastle, Tottenham

Most likely combo of teams being relegated

37%	Ipswich, Leicester, Southampton
15%	Everton, Ipswich, Southampton
15%	Ipswich, Southampton, Wolves
6%	Everton, Leicester, Southampton
5%	Leicester, Southampton, Wolves
5%	Crystal Palace, Ipswich, Southampton
2.1%	Crystal Palace, Leicester, Southampton
2.0%	Everton, Southampton, Wolves
1.6%	Everton, Ipswich, Leicester
1.4%	Ipswich, Leicester, Wolves