PL: Ipswich, Leicester and Southampton relegated in a third of the simulations

 

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
35	Liverpool	84.4	+46	< 1%	>99.99%	>99.99%	99.97%	99.82%	71%	< 1%	< 1%	99.97%
28	Arsenal	77.2	+41	< 1%	99.92%	99.77%	99.28%	97.3%	17%	< 1%	< 1%	99.26%
26	Man City	76.0	+34	< 1%	99.85%	99.58%	98.8%	95.8%	11%	< 1%	1.1%	98.7%
28	Chelsea	69.6	+30	< 1%	97.8%	95.3%	90%	77%	1.8%	< 1%	9%	89%
20	Tottenham	58.2	+21	< 1%	60%	45%	28%	9%	< 1%	12%	28%	38%
20	Newcastle	57.4	+6	< 1%	52%	37%	21%	6%	< 1%	15%	31%	20%
22	Aston Villa	57.3	+2	< 1%	50%	36%	21%	6%	< 1%	11%	29%	21%
23	Brighton	57.2	+4	< 1%	50%	36%	20%	6%	< 1%	11%	29%	20%
19	Man United	53.1	+3	< 1%	26%	16%	7%	1.6%	< 1%	11%	17%	16%
22	Fulham	52.1	-4	< 1%	19%	11%	4.9%	1.0%	< 1%	9%	15%	4.7%
18	Bournemouth	50.4	-4	< 1%	14%	8%	3.1%	< 1%	< 1%	7%	11%	3.0%
22	Forest	50.3	-8	< 1%	13%	7%	2.9%	< 1%	< 1%	6%	11%	2.8%
20	Brentford	49.7	-5	1.1%	12%	6%	2.7%	< 1%	< 1%	8%	9%	2.6%
15	West Ham	47.0	-12	3.2%	4.9%	2.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	3.4%	4.1%	< 1%
14	Crystal Palace	44.1	-11	7%	1.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	3.3%	3.8%	< 1%
14	Everton	40.2	-19	21%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.1%	< 1%
8	Wolves	38.0	-21	34%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
13	Leicester	36.3	-27	47%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
9	Ipswich	29.4	-35	88%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
5	Southampton	25.0	-42	96.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Coming Matches

Home		Draw		Away
Wolves	45%	24%	31%	Bournemouth
Everton	20%	21%	59%	Liverpool
Aston Villa	72%	17%	12%	Southampton
Brentford	41%	24%	35%	Newcastle
Crystal Palace	23%	22%	56%	Man City
Man United	58%	21%	21%	Forest
Ipswich	34%	24%	42%	Bournemouth
Leicester	35%	24%	41%	Brighton
Fulham	25%	23%	53%	Arsenal
Tottenham	45%	24%	31%	Chelsea
West Ham	55%	22%	23%	Wolves

Most likely combo of teams in CL

19%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham
12%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Newcastle
12%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City
11%	Arsenal, Brighton, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City
4.6%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
3.5%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City
2.8%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Man United, Tottenham
2.8%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham
2.6%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Fulham, Liverpool, Man City
2.5%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Newcastle, Tottenham

Most likely combo of teams being relegated

36%	Ipswich, Leicester, Southampton
25%	Ipswich, Southampton, Wolves
14%	Everton, Ipswich, Southampton
4.8%	Crystal Palace, Ipswich, Southampton
4.6%	Leicester, Southampton, Wolves
2.5%	Everton, Leicester, Southampton
2.2%	Ipswich, Southampton, West Ham
1.8%	Everton, Southampton, Wolves
1.2%	Ipswich, Leicester, Wolves