PL: Liverpool 74% favorites to win the league

In the simulations, Liverpool finish on average eight points ahead of Arsenal.

Hot Teams
Chelsea: 13 points in the last 5 matches, 4.7 more than expected
Liverpool: 13 points in the last 5 matches, 2.8 more than expected
Brentford: 10 points in the last 5 matches, 2.8 more than expected
Bournemouth: 9 points in the last 5 matches, 2.7 more than expected
Fulham: 8 points in the last 5 matches, 1.7 more than expected

Cold Teams
Man City: 4 points in the last 5 matches, 5.3 less than expected
Tottenham: 4 points in the last 5 matches, 4.0 less than expected
Southampton: 1 point in the last 5 matches, 2.2 less than expected
Newcastle: 5 points in the last 5 matches, 2.0 less than expected
Everton: 5 points in the last 5 matches, 1.5 less than expected

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
35	Liverpool	84.4	+46	< 1%	>99.99%	>99.99%	99.98%	99.86%	74%	< 1%	< 1%	99.97%
29	Arsenal	76.4	+40	< 1%	99.91%	99.75%	99.24%	97.0%	14%	< 1%	< 1%	99.21%
27	Man City	75.1	+33	< 1%	99.82%	99.54%	98.7%	95.3%	9%	< 1%	1.2%	98.6%
31	Chelsea	71.4	+31	< 1%	99.06%	97.9%	95.0%	86%	3.3%	< 1%	4.7%	95%
25	Aston Villa	58.0	+2	< 1%	55%	41%	25%	6%	< 1%	10%	30%	25%
24	Brighton	56.7	+4	< 1%	48%	34%	19%	4.1%	< 1%	11%	28%	18%
20	Tottenham	56.6	+20	< 1%	50%	36%	21%	4.6%	< 1%	12%	26%	32%
20	Newcastle	56.1	+4	< 1%	44%	31%	16%	3.1%	< 1%	15%	28%	16%
25	Forest	52.4	-6	< 1%	21%	13%	6%	< 1%	< 1%	8%	16%	6%
23	Fulham	52.1	-3	< 1%	20%	12%	5%	< 1%	< 1%	8%	15%	4.8%
21	Bournemouth	51.9	-3	< 1%	19%	11%	5%	< 1%	< 1%	8%	14%	4.8%
23	Brentford	51.2	-3	< 1%	17%	10%	4.4%	< 1%	< 1%	9%	13%	4.1%
19	Man United	51.2	+1	< 1%	17%	10%	4.2%	< 1%	< 1%	9%	12%	13%
18	West Ham	48.1	-12	1.7%	7%	3.4%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%	3.9%	5%	1.2%
15	Crystal Palace	44.2	-10	6%	2.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	3.1%	3.8%	< 1%
14	Everton	40.1	-19	19%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.1%	< 1%
8	Wolves	37.1	-22	37%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
14	Leicester	36.1	-26	46%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
9	Ipswich	28.1	-36	91%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
5	Southampton	24.5	-42	96.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%