PL: City vs Forest in battle for CL spot

 The chances for Forest swings 22 percent if the beat City compared with lose. See below for details.

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
67	Liverpool	88.6	+54	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	100%	98.1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
54	Arsenal	76.8	+41	< 1%	>99.99%	99.98%	99.94%	99.71%	1.9%	< 1%	< 1%	99.94%
47	Man City	68.9	+27	< 1%	99.0%	97.4%	94%	86%	< 1%	< 1%	5%	93%
48	Forest	64.4	+13	< 1%	89%	79%	64%	42%	< 1%	7%	23%	63%
46	Chelsea	63.4	+20	< 1%	88%	76%	59%	37%	< 1%	4.7%	32%	58%
44	Newcastle	61.6	+12	< 1%	74%	58%	39%	19%	< 1%	19%	31%	38%
43	Bournemouth	59.4	+15	< 1%	56%	38%	21%	9%	< 1%	17%	30%	20%
43	Brighton	58.4	+5	< 1%	41%	25%	13%	5%	< 1%	17%	23%	13%
42	Aston Villa	55.7	-5	< 1%	18%	9%	4.1%	1.3%	< 1%	10%	20%	5%
42	Fulham	55.5	+1	< 1%	18%	9%	4.1%	1.3%	< 1%	11%	14%	4.0%
38	Crystal Palace	53.4	+3	< 1%	8%	3.7%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%	6%	17%	1.3%
38	Brentford	52.3	+3	< 1%	7%	3.1%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%	5%	3.7%	1.2%
33	Tottenham	48.6	+15	< 1%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.2%	< 1%	15%
33	West Ham	47.4	-16	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
33	Man United	46.8	-8	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	7%	9%
32	Everton	45.5	-7	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
21	Wolves	35.1	-22	10%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
17	Leicester	26.6	-46	95%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
17	Ipswich	25.9	-42	95.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
9	Southampton	16.7	-60	99.98%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Titles

Team	League	FA Cup	League Cup	Europe
Liverpool	98.1%		72%	19%
Arsenal	1.9%			15%
Man City	< 1%	30%
Forest	< 1%	13%
Chelsea	< 1%			48%
Newcastle		9%	28%
Bournemouth		6%
Brighton		3.2%
Aston Villa		11%		1.1%
Fulham		5%
Crystal Palace		12%
Tottenham				15%
Man United		7%		9%
Wolves		< 1%
Ipswich		< 1%

Important matches for CL race
Forest vs Man City (5.8%)	Home Win (33%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (43%)
Forest	77%	62%	52%
Man City	88%	93%	97.5%

 

PL: Liverpool clinch title with 96% certainty

Liverpool have almost secured the title with a win at Etihad. This midweek we have a handful important matches for the CL race.

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
64	Liverpool	87.8	+53	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	100%	95.6%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
53	Arsenal	77.6	+41	< 1%	>99.99%	99.98%	99.92%	99.65%	4.4%	< 1%	< 1%	99.92%
44	Man City	68.2	+28	< 1%	98.3%	95.6%	90%	79%	< 1%	1.3%	8%	90%
47	Forest	64.7	+13	< 1%	90%	79%	63%	42%	< 1%	7%	25%	62%
43	Chelsea	63.4	+19	< 1%	87%	73%	55%	34%	< 1%	4.8%	37%	55%
44	Newcastle	62.6	+13	< 1%	80%	63%	44%	24%	< 1%	16%	32%	43%
43	Bournemouth	61.1	+16	< 1%	71%	52%	33%	16%	< 1%	15%	34%	32%
42	Aston Villa	57.0	-2	< 1%	27%	15%	7%	2.6%	< 1%	16%	24%	8%
40	Brighton	55.9	+3	< 1%	22%	11%	5%	1.8%	< 1%	15%	14%	4.9%
39	Fulham	53.8	-0	< 1%	11%	4.8%	1.9%	< 1%	< 1%	9%	11%	1.9%
37	Brentford	52.8	+3	< 1%	8%	3.8%	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%	8%	5%	1.5%
35	Crystal Palace	51.1	-1	< 1%	3.2%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	3.9%	10%	< 1%
33	Tottenham	49.2	+14	< 1%	1.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.2%	1.0%	15%
30	Man United	46.3	-7	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	6%	12%
30	West Ham	46.2	-18	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
31	Everton	44.8	-9	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
21	Wolves	36.5	-21	10%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
17	Leicester	27.7	-45	94%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
17	Ipswich	26.6	-42	96.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
9	Southampton	17.6	-57	99.97%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Titles

Team	League	FA Cup	League Cup	Europe
Liverpool	95.6%		70%	18%
Arsenal	4.4%			17%
Man City	< 1%	36%
Forest	< 1%	14%
Chelsea	< 1%			51%
Newcastle	< 1%	9%	30%
Bournemouth	< 1%	7%
Aston Villa		11%		1.4%
Brighton		1.7%
Fulham		4.5%
Crystal Palace		8%
Tottenham				15%
Man United		7%		12%
Wolves		< 1%
Ipswich		< 1%

 

 

Important matches for CL race
Brighton vs Bournemouth (5.4%)	Home Win (42%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (34%)
Bournemouth	22%	30%	46%
Brighton	8%	3.4%	1.7%
Forest vs Arsenal (3.4%)	Home Win (28%)	Draw (23%)	Away Win (49%)
Forest	76%	62%	54%
Newcastle	40%	43%	45%
Chelsea	51%	55%	56%
Bournemouth	29%	32%	34%
Liverpool vs Newcastle (2.6%)	Home Win (68%)	Draw (18%)	Away Win (14%)
Newcastle	39%	47%	62%
Chelsea	56%	54%	49%
Bournemouth	33%	31%	28%
Forest	63%	61%	58%
Chelsea vs Southampton (2.4%)	Home Win (79%)	Draw (13%)	Away Win (8%)
Chelsea	59%	43%	35%
Newcastle	42%	46%	49%
Bournemouth	31%	35%	37%
Forest	61%	65%	67%

 

Probabilities Round of 16

Below are the updated probabilities after the draw of round 16. The projected finals are:

Inter vs Liverpool

Lazio vs Man United

Chelsea vs Fiorentina

 

Champions League

Quarter-finals		Semi-finals		Final		Champions
Liverpool (64%) Paris SG (36%)
		Liverpool (53%) Paris SG (26%) Aston Villa (15%)
Aston Villa (61%) Brugge (39%)
				Liverpool (30%) Arsenal (29%) Real Madrid (16%) Paris SG (12%)
Real Madrid (62%) Atletico (38%)
		Arsenal (49%) Real Madrid (31%) Atletico (14%)
Arsenal (78%) PSV (22%)
						Inter (23%) Liverpool (18%) Arsenal (17%) Real Madrid (9%) Barcelona (8%)
Barcelona (70%) Benfica (30%)
		Barcelona (46%) Lille (25%) Benfica (15%)
Lille (58%) Dortmund (42%)
				Inter (42%) Barcelona (19%) Leverkusen (13%) Bayern (11%)
Leverkusen (52%) Bayern (48%)
		Inter (57%) Leverkusen (21%) Bayern (18%)
Inter (86%)

Europa League

Quarter-finals		Semi-finals		Final		Champions
Lazio (79%) Viktoria Plzen (21%)
		Lazio (57%) Olympiakos (24%) Bodoe Glimt (10%)
Olympiakos (63%) Bodoe Glimt (37%)
				Lazio (33%) Tottenham (27%) Frankfurt (14%) Olympiakos (9%)
Frankfurt (58%) Ajax (42%)
		Tottenham (47%) Frankfurt (28%) Ajax (17%)
Tottenham (76%) Alkmaar (24%)
						Lazio (18%) Tottenham (14%) Man United (12%) Bilbao (12%) Lyon (10%)
Bilbao (53%) Roma (47%)
		Bilbao (37%) Roma (32%) Fenerbahce (21%)
Fenerbahce (59%) Rangers (41%)
				Man United (21%) Bilbao (21%) Lyon (19%) Roma (17%) Sociedad (9%)
Lyon (84%)
		Lyon (39%) Man United (38%) Sociedad (20%)
Man United (62%) Sociedad (38%)

Conference League

Quarter-finals		Semi-finals		Final		Champions
Betis (62%) Guimaraes (38%)
		Betis (45%) Guimaraes (24%) Cercle Brugge (20%)
Cercle Brugge (58%) Jagiellonia (42%)
				Fiorentina (54%) Betis (20%) Guimaraes (8%)
Lugano (67%) Celje (33%)
		Fiorentina (72%) Panathinaikos (15%)
Fiorentina (79%) Panathinaikos (21%)
						Chelsea (52%) Fiorentina (26%) Betis (8%)
Chelsea (88%)
		Chelsea (80%) FC Kobenhavn (8%)
Legia (53%) Molde (47%)
				Chelsea (75%) Rapid Wien (7%)
Djurgarden (51%) Paphos (49%)
		Rapid Wien (47%) Djurgarden (26%) Paphos (25%)
Rapid Wien (86%)

 

 

 

 

Europa and Conference League - Bracket probabilities in last 16

England (98%) and Spain (76%) are favourites to win the extra CL slot, followed by Italy (17%) and Portugal (2.6%), Netherlands (2.3%), Belgium (1.9%) and Cyprus (1.2%). If we look at how their chances depend on how many teams advance to the quiarterfinals, England increase their chances if four of six teams advance, Spain increase if three of six teams advance. Italy need all four teams to advance to increase their chances, Portugal that both teams advance, while Netherlands that two of three teams advance to the quarterfinals.

Europa League

Last 16		Quarter-finals		Semi-finals		Final		Champions
Lazio (50%) Bilbao (50%)
		Lazio (38%) Bilbao (38%) Viktoria Plzen (24%)
Viktoria Plzen (100%)
				Lazio (29%) Bilbao (28%) Bodoe Glimt (12%) Olympiakos (12%)
Rangers (50%) Olympiakos (50%)
		Bodoe Glimt (43%) Olympiakos (30%) Rangers (27%)
Bodoe Glimt (100%)
						Lazio (17%) Bilbao (16%) Tottenham (14%) Man United (13%) Ajax (8%)
Frankfurt (50%) Lyon (50%)
		Ajax (44%) Lyon (28%) Frankfurt (28%)
Ajax (100%)
				Tottenham (23%) Man United (23%) Ajax (18%) Lyon (14%) Frankfurt (13%)
Man United (50%) Tottenham (50%)
		Tottenham (37%) Man United (37%) Alkmaar (26%)
Alkmaar (100%)
								Lazio (15%) Bilbao (15%) Tottenham (13%) Man United (12%) Roma (10%)
Tottenham (50%) Man United (50%)
		Sociedad (40%) Tottenham (30%) Man United (30%)
Sociedad (100%)
				Sociedad (21%) Lyon (20%) Frankfurt (20%) Tottenham (19%) Man United (18%)
Lyon (50%) Frankfurt (50%)
		Lyon (41%) Frankfurt (41%) Steaua (18%)
Steaua (100%)
						Roma (19%) Lazio (11%) Bilbao (11%) Tottenham (10%) Man United (10%)
Olympiakos (50%) Rangers (50%)
		Fenerbahce (57%) Olympiakos (23%) Rangers (20%)
Fenerbahce (100%)
				Roma (33%) Fenerbahce (19%) Lazio (18%) Bilbao (18%)
Bilbao (50%) Lazio (50%)
		Roma (48%) Lazio (26%) Bilbao (26%)
Roma (100%)

 

Conference League

Last 16		Quarter-finals		Semi-finals		Final		Champions
Guimaraes (50%) Chelsea (50%)
		Betis (43%) Chelsea (39%) Guimaraes (18%)
Betis (100%)
				Chelsea (36%) Betis (32%) Guimaraes (11%)
Legia (50%) Cercle Brugge (50%)
		Jagiellonia (45%) Cercle Brugge (28%) Legia (27%)
Jagiellonia (100%)
						Chelsea (29%) Fiorentina (22%) Betis (18%) Panathinaikos (11%)
Lugano (50%) Djurgarden (50%)
		Celje (33%) Lugano (33%) Djurgarden (33%)
Celje (100%)
				Fiorentina (36%) Panathinaikos (32%) Rapid Wien (11%)
Fiorentina (50%) Rapid Wien (50%)
		Panathinaikos (43%) Fiorentina (39%) Rapid Wien (18%)
Panathinaikos (100%)
								Chelsea (46%) Fiorentina (28%) Betis (7%)
Rapid Wien (50%) Fiorentina (50%)
		Fiorentina (49%) Rapid Wien (43%)
Borac Banja Luka (100%)
				Fiorentina (44%) Rapid Wien (23%) Paphos (16%)
Djurgarden (50%) Lugano (50%)
		Paphos (51%) Djurgarden (25%) Lugano (25%)
Paphos (100%)
						Chelsea (33%) Fiorentina (27%) FC Kobenhavn (10%) Guimaraes (8%)
Cercle Brugge (50%) Legia (50%)
		Molde (48%) Cercle Brugge (27%) Legia (26%)
Molde (100%)
				Chelsea (40%) FC Kobenhavn (20%) Guimaraes (15%) Molde (11%)
Chelsea (50%) Guimaraes (50%)
		Chelsea (43%) FC Kobenhavn (32%) Guimaraes (24%)
FC Kobenhavn (100%)

 

 Which countries get extra CL spots

		Score
Country	Probability	Average	Min	Max
ENG	98.0%	19.13	13.29	24.64
ESP	76%	16.8	12.57	23.5
ITA	17%	15.1	11.63	18.88
POR	2.6%	13.56	12.3	18.1
NED	2.3%	13.63	12	19.33
BEL	1.9%	13.99	12.7	18.5
CYP	1.2%	13.43	12.33	16.83
GRE	< 1%	12.11	10.13	17.25
GER	< 1%	12.7	10.44	17.31
FRA	< 1%	11.65	9.43	15.86
NOR	< 1%	10.66	9.13	16

Number of quarterfinalists from ESP; 263 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
Probability	< 1%	7%	23%	35%	25%	8%	< 1%
Chance if	< 1%	12%	51%	85%	97.2%	99.7%	99.9%

Number of quarterfinalists from ITA; 147 mbit

n	1	2	3	4
Probability	3.3%	25%	58%	13%
Chance if	< 1%	1.1%	16%	59%

Number of quarterfinalists from POR; 71 mbit

n	0	1	2
Probability	43%	46%	11%
Chance if	< 1%	< 1%	22%

Number of quarterfinalists from ENG; 66 mbit

n	1	2	3	4	5	6
Probability	< 1%	5%	18%	33%	32%	12%
Chance if	29%	81%	97.4%	99.81%	>99.99%	>99.99%

Number of quarterfinalists from NED; 56 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	27%	44%	24%	5%
Chance if	< 1%	< 1%	3.4%	22%

Number of quarterfinalists from BEL; 27 mbit

n	0	1	2
Probability	27%	51%	22%
Chance if	< 1%	< 1%	7%

Number of quarterfinalists from CYP; 11 mbit

n	0	1
Probability	49%	51%
Chance if	< 1%	2.3%

Number of quarterfinalists from GER; 9 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4
Probability	2.3%	20%	45%	29%	3.5%
Chance if	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	6%

Number of quarterfinalists from GRE; 8 mbit

n	0	1	2
Probability	26%	50%	23%
Chance if	< 1%	< 1%	1.7%

Number of quarterfinalists from FRA; 0 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	7%	31%	43%	19%
Chance if	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

 

CL - Last 16 and bracket probabilities

 

Last 16		Quarter-finals		Semi-finals		Final		Champions
Liverpool (50%) Barcelona (50%)
		Paris SG (47%) Liverpool (31%) Barcelona (22%)
Paris SG (100%)
				Paris SG (34%) Liverpool (26%) Barcelona (15%) Lille (9%)
Lille (50%) Aston Villa (50%)
		Brugge (40%) Lille (30%) Aston Villa (30%)
Brugge (100%)
						Real Madrid (18%) Inter (15%) Arsenal (15%) Paris SG (15%) Liverpool (15%)
Atletico (50%) Leverkusen (50%)
		Real Madrid (62%) Leverkusen (20%) Atletico (18%)
Real Madrid (100%)
				Real Madrid (30%) Inter (24%) Arsenal (24%) Leverkusen (8%)
Inter (50%) Arsenal (50%)
		Inter (39%) Arsenal (38%) PSV (23%)
PSV (100%)
								Liverpool (21%) Inter (19%) Arsenal (18%) Real Madrid (9%) Paris SG (7%)
Arsenal (50%) Inter (50%)
		Inter (42%) Arsenal (42%) Feyenoord (16%)
Feyenoord (100%)
				Inter (28%) Arsenal (28%) Bayern (21%) Leverkusen (11%)
Leverkusen (50%) Atletico (50%)
		Bayern (52%) Leverkusen (25%) Atletico (23%)
Bayern (100%)
						Liverpool (21%) Inter (18%) Arsenal (18%) Bayern (11%) Barcelona (10%)
Aston Villa (50%) Lille (50%)
		Dortmund (45%) Lille (28%) Aston Villa (27%)
Dortmund (100%)
				Liverpool (34%) Barcelona (23%) Dortmund (12%) Benfica (12%)
Barcelona (50%) Liverpool (50%)
		Liverpool (41%) Barcelona (34%) Benfica (25%)
Benfica (100%)