PL: City vs Forest in battle for CL spot

 The chances for Forest swings 22 percent if the beat City compared with lose. See below for details.

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
67	Liverpool	88.6	+54	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	100%	98.1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
54	Arsenal	76.8	+41	< 1%	>99.99%	99.98%	99.94%	99.71%	1.9%	< 1%	< 1%	99.94%
47	Man City	68.9	+27	< 1%	99.0%	97.4%	94%	86%	< 1%	< 1%	5%	93%
48	Forest	64.4	+13	< 1%	89%	79%	64%	42%	< 1%	7%	23%	63%
46	Chelsea	63.4	+20	< 1%	88%	76%	59%	37%	< 1%	4.7%	32%	58%
44	Newcastle	61.6	+12	< 1%	74%	58%	39%	19%	< 1%	19%	31%	38%
43	Bournemouth	59.4	+15	< 1%	56%	38%	21%	9%	< 1%	17%	30%	20%
43	Brighton	58.4	+5	< 1%	41%	25%	13%	5%	< 1%	17%	23%	13%
42	Aston Villa	55.7	-5	< 1%	18%	9%	4.1%	1.3%	< 1%	10%	20%	5%
42	Fulham	55.5	+1	< 1%	18%	9%	4.1%	1.3%	< 1%	11%	14%	4.0%
38	Crystal Palace	53.4	+3	< 1%	8%	3.7%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%	6%	17%	1.3%
38	Brentford	52.3	+3	< 1%	7%	3.1%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%	5%	3.7%	1.2%
33	Tottenham	48.6	+15	< 1%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.2%	< 1%	15%
33	West Ham	47.4	-16	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
33	Man United	46.8	-8	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	7%	9%
32	Everton	45.5	-7	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
21	Wolves	35.1	-22	10%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
17	Leicester	26.6	-46	95%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
17	Ipswich	25.9	-42	95.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
9	Southampton	16.7	-60	99.98%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Titles

Team	League	FA Cup	League Cup	Europe
Liverpool	98.1%		72%	19%
Arsenal	1.9%			15%
Man City	< 1%	30%
Forest	< 1%	13%
Chelsea	< 1%			48%
Newcastle		9%	28%
Bournemouth		6%
Brighton		3.2%
Aston Villa		11%		1.1%
Fulham		5%
Crystal Palace		12%
Tottenham				15%
Man United		7%		9%
Wolves		< 1%
Ipswich		< 1%

Important matches for CL race
Forest vs Man City (5.8%)	Home Win (33%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (43%)
Forest	77%	62%	52%
Man City	88%	93%	97.5%