CL: Matchday 1 of Round of 16

Updated bracket after matchday 1. England now get the extra CL slot in >99% of the simulations and Spain are likely (83%) and if they have four teams in the quarterfinals their probability increases to 98%.

Quarter-finals		Semi-finals		Final		Champions
Liverpool (62%) Paris SG (38%)
		Liverpool (50%) Paris SG (28%) Aston Villa (21%)
Aston Villa (95%)
				Arsenal (32%) Liverpool (28%) Real Madrid (19%) Paris SG (12%)
Real Madrid (71%) Atletico (29%)
		Arsenal (57%) Real Madrid (34%)
Arsenal (100%)
						Arsenal (19%) Liverpool (17%) Inter (14%) Barcelona (11%) Real Madrid (11%)
Barcelona (72%) Benfica (28%)
		Barcelona (50%) Lille (25%) Benfica (13%)
Lille (66%) Dortmund (34%)
				Inter (30%) Barcelona (25%) Bayern (14%) Leverkusen (14%)
Leverkusen (50%) Bayern (50%)
		Inter (46%) Bayern (24%) Leverkusen (24%)
Inter (79%) Feyenoord (21%)

 

Which countries get extra CL spots

		Score
Country	Probability	Average	Min	Max
ENG	99.23%	19.37	14.07	23.64
ESP	83%	17.23	13.36	22.36
ITA	13%	15.05	11.5	18.75
POR	2.4%	13.45	12.3	18.1
NED	< 1%	13.55	12	18.25
CYP	< 1%	13.57	12.33	16.83
BEL	< 1%	13.56	12.7	17.9
GRE	< 1%	11.73	10.13	17.25
GER	< 1%	12.57	11.25	15.63
FRA	< 1%	11.73	9.57	15.86
NOR	< 1%	10.65	9.13	16

 Number of quarterfinalists from ESP; 218 mbit

n	1	2	3	4	5
Probability	2.3%	15%	36%	35%	12%
Chance if	5%	46%	85%	97.8%	99.95%