CL: Probabilities after 1st Leg

Updated probabilities after the 1st leg of round of 16. The two extra CL slots increasingly look to be given to England and Spain. See probabilities and conditional probabilities below.

Quarter-finals		Semi-finals		Final		Champions
Liverpool (86%)
		Liverpool (70%) Aston Villa (19%)
Aston Villa (95%)
				Liverpool (39%) Arsenal (31%) Real Madrid (18%)
Real Madrid (71%) Atletico (29%)
		Arsenal (57%) Real Madrid (34%)
Arsenal (100%)
						Liverpool (24%) Arsenal (18%) Inter (16%) Barcelona (13%)
Barcelona (90%)
		Barcelona (63%) Lille (22%) Dortmund (10%)
Lille (66%) Dortmund (34%)
				Inter (35%) Barcelona (30%) Bayern (22%)
Bayern (92%)
		Inter (56%) Bayern (40%)
Inter (98%)

 

Which countries get extra CL spots

		Score
Country	Probability	Average	Min	Max
ENG	99.66%	19.79	14.36	23.79
ESP	87%	17.54	13.64	22.5
ITA	12%	15.29	11.75	18.88
POR	< 1%	13.07	12.3	17.7
CYP	< 1%	13.57	12.33	16.83
BEL	< 1%	13.56	12.7	17.9
NED	< 1%	13.3	12	17.75
GRE	< 1%	11.73	10.13	17.25
GER	< 1%	12.51	11.25	15.63
FRA	< 1%	11.3	9.57	15.71
NOR	< 1%	10.65	9.13	16

Number of semifinalists from ESP; 168 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4	5
Probability	4.6%	21%	35%	28%	10%	1.3%
Chance if	29%	67%	92%	99.1%	99.97%	100%

Number of quarterfinalists from ESP; 163 mbit

n	1	2	3	4	5
Probability	< 1%	11%	34%	39%	15%
Chance if	5%	47%	83%	97.4%	99.95%

Number of semifinalists from ITA; 142 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4
Probability	3.6%	21%	39%	29%	7%
Chance if	< 1%	< 1%	4.4%	21%	61%

Number of quarterfinalists from ITA; 130 mbit

n	1	2	3	4
Probability	2.7%	20%	49%	28%
Chance if	< 1%	< 1%	5%	35%

Number of finalists from ESP; 130 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4
Probability	26%	42%	25%	6%	< 1%
Chance if	63%	91%	99.5%	100%	100%

Number of finalists from ITA; 121 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4
Probability	18%	41%	31%	9%	< 1%
Chance if	< 1%	4.4%	17%	46%	89%

Number of tournament winners for ESP; 58 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	54%	38%	8%	< 1%
Chance if	79%	95.2%	99.8%	100%

Number of tournament winners for ITA; 44 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	46%	41%	12%	1.1%
Chance if	5%	14%	30%	53%

Number of quarterfinalists from POR; 27 mbit

n	0	1	2
Probability	61%	36%	3.1%
Chance if	< 1%	< 1%	17%

Number of semifinalists from POR; 26 mbit

n	0	1	2
Probability	76%	23%	< 1%
Chance if	< 1%	< 1%	41%