Europa and Conference League

Probabilities after 1st leg below. The most likely semifinals are Lazio vs Frankfurt and Roma vs Lyon. In the Conference League the projected semifinals are Betis vs Fiorentina and Chelsea vs Wien.

 Portugal needs that both Guimares and Benfica reach the semifinals, which seems difficult given that Benfica lost at home versus Barcelona. Italy needs that all four teams advance to the quarterfinals, which is not impossible.

 

Europa League

Quarter-finals		Semi-finals		Final		Champions
Lazio (92%)
		Lazio (68%) Bodoe Glimt (24%)
Bodoe Glimt (89%)
				Lazio (39%) Tottenham (20%) Frankfurt (19%) Bodoe Glimt (8%)
Frankfurt (81%) Ajax (19%)
		Frankfurt (39%) Tottenham (34%) Alkmaar (18%)
Tottenham (55%) Alkmaar (45%)
						Lazio (21%) Roma (13%) Tottenham (11%) Bilbao (11%) Lyon (11%)
Roma (58%) Bilbao (42%)
		Roma (43%) Bilbao (32%) Rangers (21%)
Rangers (88%)
				Roma (24%) Lyon (22%) Bilbao (19%) Man United (18%)
Lyon (98%)
		Lyon (46%) Man United (36%) Sociedad (17%)
Man United (66%) Sociedad (34%)

Conference League

Quarter-finals		Semi-finals		Final		Champions
Betis (52%) Guimaraes (48%)
		Betis (41%) Guimaraes (31%) Jagiellonia (25%)
Jagiellonia (90%)
				Fiorentina (41%) Betis (24%) Guimaraes (13%)
Lugano (50%) Celje (50%)
		Fiorentina (58%) Panathinaikos (25%) Lugano (10%)
Fiorentina (64%) Panathinaikos (36%)
						Chelsea (56%) Fiorentina (19%) Betis (10%)
Chelsea (94%)
		Chelsea (86%)
Molde (62%) Legia (38%)
				Chelsea (80%) Rapid Wien (5%)
Paphos (61%) Djurgarden (39%)
		Rapid Wien (41%) Paphos (34%) Djurgarden (22%)
Rapid Wien (82%) Borac Banja Luka (18%)

Which countries get extra CL spots

		Score
Country	Probability	Average	Min	Max
ENG	99.78%	19.78	14.64	23.5
ESP	78%	17.04	13.93	22.07
ITA	20%	15.48	12.25	18.75
POR	1.0%	13.32	12.5	17.7
CYP	< 1%	13.98	13	16.83
NED	< 1%	13.16	12.33	17.42
GER	< 1%	12.86	11.5	15.63
GRE	< 1%	11.58	10.63	16.75
BEL	< 1%	13.17	12.7	17.5
FRA	< 1%	11.53	9.86	15.71
NOR	< 1%	11.46	10.13	16

Number of semifinalists from ESP; 234 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4	5
Probability	7%	27%	37%	23%	6%	< 1%
Chance if	17%	57%	88%	98.6%	99.95%	100%

Number of quarterfinalists from ESP; 207 mbit

n	1	2	3	4	5
Probability	1.8%	21%	42%	29%	7%
Chance if	4%	44%	82%	96.9%	99.93%

Number of semifinalists from ITA; 191 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4
Probability	3.3%	18%	37%	32%	10%
Chance if	< 1%	< 1%	8%	32%	70%

Number of finalists from ESP; 184 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	31%	42%	22%	4.9%
Chance if	49%	85%	99.1%	100%

Number of finalists from ITA; 163 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4
Probability	18%	39%	31%	11%	1.4%
Chance if	1.6%	8%	27%	61%	94%

Number of quarterfinalists from ITA; 159 mbit

n	1	2	3	4
Probability	1.5%	18%	47%	34%
Chance if	< 1%	< 1%	10%	45%

Number of tournament winners for ESP; 80 mbit

n	0	1	2
Probability	58%	35%	7%
Chance if	67%	91%	99.7%

Number of tournament winners for ITA; 61 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	44%	42%	12%	1.1%
Chance if	10%	23%	44%	68%

Number of quarterfinalists from POR; 44 mbit

n	0	1	2
Probability	47%	49%	4.7%
Chance if	< 1%	< 1%	21%

Number of semifinalists from POR; 41 mbit

n	0	1	2
Probability	66%	33%	1.5%
Chance if	< 1%	< 1%	48%