PL: Liverpool clinch title with 96% certainty

Liverpool have almost secured the title with a win at Etihad. This midweek we have a handful important matches for the CL race.

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
64	Liverpool	87.8	+53	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	100%	95.6%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
53	Arsenal	77.6	+41	< 1%	>99.99%	99.98%	99.92%	99.65%	4.4%	< 1%	< 1%	99.92%
44	Man City	68.2	+28	< 1%	98.3%	95.6%	90%	79%	< 1%	1.3%	8%	90%
47	Forest	64.7	+13	< 1%	90%	79%	63%	42%	< 1%	7%	25%	62%
43	Chelsea	63.4	+19	< 1%	87%	73%	55%	34%	< 1%	4.8%	37%	55%
44	Newcastle	62.6	+13	< 1%	80%	63%	44%	24%	< 1%	16%	32%	43%
43	Bournemouth	61.1	+16	< 1%	71%	52%	33%	16%	< 1%	15%	34%	32%
42	Aston Villa	57.0	-2	< 1%	27%	15%	7%	2.6%	< 1%	16%	24%	8%
40	Brighton	55.9	+3	< 1%	22%	11%	5%	1.8%	< 1%	15%	14%	4.9%
39	Fulham	53.8	-0	< 1%	11%	4.8%	1.9%	< 1%	< 1%	9%	11%	1.9%
37	Brentford	52.8	+3	< 1%	8%	3.8%	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%	8%	5%	1.5%
35	Crystal Palace	51.1	-1	< 1%	3.2%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	3.9%	10%	< 1%
33	Tottenham	49.2	+14	< 1%	1.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.2%	1.0%	15%
30	Man United	46.3	-7	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	6%	12%
30	West Ham	46.2	-18	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
31	Everton	44.8	-9	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
21	Wolves	36.5	-21	10%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
17	Leicester	27.7	-45	94%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
17	Ipswich	26.6	-42	96.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
9	Southampton	17.6	-57	99.97%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Titles

Team	League	FA Cup	League Cup	Europe
Liverpool	95.6%		70%	18%
Arsenal	4.4%			17%
Man City	< 1%	36%
Forest	< 1%	14%
Chelsea	< 1%			51%
Newcastle	< 1%	9%	30%
Bournemouth	< 1%	7%
Aston Villa		11%		1.4%
Brighton		1.7%
Fulham		4.5%
Crystal Palace		8%
Tottenham				15%
Man United		7%		12%
Wolves		< 1%
Ipswich		< 1%

 

 

Important matches for CL race
Brighton vs Bournemouth (5.4%)	Home Win (42%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (34%)
Bournemouth	22%	30%	46%
Brighton	8%	3.4%	1.7%
Forest vs Arsenal (3.4%)	Home Win (28%)	Draw (23%)	Away Win (49%)
Forest	76%	62%	54%
Newcastle	40%	43%	45%
Chelsea	51%	55%	56%
Bournemouth	29%	32%	34%
Liverpool vs Newcastle (2.6%)	Home Win (68%)	Draw (18%)	Away Win (14%)
Newcastle	39%	47%	62%
Chelsea	56%	54%	49%
Bournemouth	33%	31%	28%
Forest	63%	61%	58%
Chelsea vs Southampton (2.4%)	Home Win (79%)	Draw (13%)	Away Win (8%)
Chelsea	59%	43%	35%
Newcastle	42%	46%	49%
Bournemouth	31%	35%	37%
Forest	61%	65%	67%