CL: PSG advance to the quarterfinals after penalty shootout

Probabilities after Tuesday night matches.

Quarter-finals		Semi-finals		Final		Champions
Paris SG (100%)
		Paris SG (74%) Aston Villa (25%)
Aston Villa (95%)
				Arsenal (36%) Paris SG (33%) Real Madrid (21%)
Real Madrid (71%) Atletico (29%)
		Arsenal (57%) Real Madrid (34%)
Arsenal (100%)
						Arsenal (21%) Inter (18%) Paris SG (17%) Barcelona (15%) Real Madrid (12%)
Barcelona (100%)
		Barcelona (70%) Lille (21%)
Lille (66%) Dortmund (34%)
				Inter (35%) Barcelona (33%) Bayern (23%)
Bayern (100%)
		Inter (57%) Bayern (43%)
Inter (100%)

 

Which countries get extra CL spots

		Score
Country	Probability	Average	Min	Max
ENG	98.6%	18.68	14.5	23
ESP	81%	17.23	14.43	22.07
ITA	19%	15.55	12.69	18.75
CYP	< 1%	13.98	13	16.83
GER	< 1%	12.84	11.5	15.63
GRE	< 1%	11.58	10.63	16.75
BEL	< 1%	13.18	12.7	17.5
FRA	< 1%	12.59	10.36	15.86
NED	< 1%	13.07	12.33	16.08
POR	< 1%	13.12	12.5	14.8
NOR	< 1%	11.46	10.13	16.25

Number of semifinalists from ESP; 205 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4	5
Probability	6%	25%	37%	24%	7%	< 1%
Chance if	22%	60%	89%	99.0%	99.98%	100%

Number of semifinalists from ITA; 197 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4
Probability	3.3%	18%	37%	32%	10%
Chance if	< 1%	< 1%	7%	30%	71%

Number of finalists from ESP; 169 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4
Probability	28%	42%	24%	6%	< 1%
Chance if	53%	87%	99.2%	100%	100%

Number of finalists from ITA; 168 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4
Probability	18%	39%	31%	11%	1.4%
Chance if	1.4%	8%	26%	60%	96%

Number of quarterfinalists from ESP; 161 mbit

n	2	3	4	5
Probability	18%	43%	31%	7%
Chance if	45%	82%	97.0%	99.95%

Number of quarterfinalists from ITA; 158 mbit

n	1	2	3	4
Probability	1.2%	18%	47%	34%
Chance if	< 1%	< 1%	9%	44%

Number of tournament winners for ESP; 77 mbit

n	0	1	2
Probability	54%	38%	7%
Chance if	71%	93%	99.8%

Number of tournament winners for ITA; 64 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	44%	43%	12%	1.1%
Chance if	9%	22%	43%	69%

Number of semifinalists from ENG; 39 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4	5
Probability	1.9%	17%	37%	31%	11%	1.5%
Chance if	69%	95.3%	99.79%	>99.99%	100%	100%

Number of finalists from ENG; 28 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4
Probability	8%	39%	39%	12%	1.2%
Chance if	88%	98.6%	>99.99%	100%	100%