CL: Real through to last eight after penalty drama in Madrid

Spain clinch the extra CL slot if all remaining five teams advance to the semifinals. England secure the extra slot if three PL teams advance to the semifinals.

Quarter-finals		Semi-finals		Final		Champions
Paris SG (100%)
		Paris SG (73%) Aston Villa (27%)
Aston Villa (100%)
				Arsenal (33%) Paris SG (32%) Real Madrid (29%)
Real Madrid (100%)
		Arsenal (53%) Real Madrid (47%)
Arsenal (100%)
						Arsenal (19%) Inter (17%) Paris SG (17%) Real Madrid (17%) Barcelona (16%)
Barcelona (100%)
		Barcelona (73%) Dortmund (27%)
Dortmund (100%)
				Inter (35%) Barcelona (35%) Bayern (23%)
Bayern (100%)
		Inter (57%) Bayern (43%)
Inter (100%)

 

Which countries get extra CL spots

		Score
Country	Probability	Average	Min	Max
ENG	98.7%	18.69	15.14	22.71
ESP	83%	17.31	14.43	22.07
ITA	18%	15.55	12.69	18.75
CYP	< 1%	13.98	13	16.83
GER	< 1%	13.31	11.94	15.63
GRE	< 1%	11.58	10.63	16.5
NED	< 1%	13.16	12.5	15.17
POR	< 1%	13.13	12.5	14.8
NOR	< 1%	11.46	10.13	16.25
BEL	< 1%	13.01	12.7	15

Number of semifinalists from ESP; 199 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4	5
Probability	4.8%	24%	38%	26%	8%	< 1%
Chance if	22%	60%	89%	98.9%	99.98%	100%

Number of semifinalists from ITA; 189 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4
Probability	3.2%	18%	37%	32%	10%
Chance if	< 1%	< 1%	6%	28%	69%

Number of finalists from ITA; 164 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4
Probability	18%	39%	31%	11%	1.4%
Chance if	1.2%	7%	24%	58%	94%

Number of finalists from ESP; 163 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4
Probability	26%	42%	25%	7%	< 1%
Chance if	54%	87%	99.2%	100%	100%

Number of quarterfinalists from ESP; 154 mbit

n	2	3	4	5
Probability	19%	43%	31%	7%
Chance if	48%	84%	97.3%	99.96%

Number of quarterfinalists from ITA; 151 mbit

n	1	2	3	4
Probability	1.2%	18%	47%	34%
Chance if	< 1%	< 1%	8%	41%

Number of tournament winners for ESP; 74 mbit

n	0	1	2
Probability	52%	40%	8%
Chance if	72%	93%	99.8%

Number of tournament winners for ITA; 64 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	44%	42%	12%	1.1%
Chance if	8%	20%	41%	67%

Number of semifinalists from ENG; 37 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4	5
Probability	2.0%	18%	37%	31%	11%	1.5%
Chance if	71%	96.0%	99.81%	100%	100%	100%

Number of finalists from ENG; 27 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4
Probability	8%	41%	38%	12%	1.1%
Chance if	88%	98.8%	>99.99%	100%	100%