Europa & Conference League

England (99.99%) and Spain (99.46%) almost clinched the extra CL spot. England are 100 % certain if two teams advance to the semifinals. Spain clinch if all four teams reach semifinals. Italy need all three remaining teams reach the final, i.e., Inter reach the CL final, Lazio the EL final, and Fiorentina the Conference League final.

 

Europa League

Quarter-finals		Semi-finals		Final		Champions
Lazio (100%)
		Lazio (75%) Bodoe Glimt (25%)
Bodoe Glimt (100%)
				Lazio (39%) Tottenham (36%) Frankfurt (18%)
Frankfurt (100%)
		Tottenham (62%) Frankfurt (38%)
Tottenham (100%)
						Bilbao (25%) Lazio (20%) Tottenham (19%) Man United (13%)
Bilbao (100%)
		Bilbao (78%) Rangers (22%)
Rangers (100%)
				Bilbao (46%) Man United (27%) Lyon (21%)
Lyon (100%)
		Man United (54%) Lyon (46%)
Man United (100%)

 

 Conference League

 

Quarter-finals		Semi-finals		Final		Champions
Betis (100%)
		Betis (80%) Jagiellonia (20%)
Jagiellonia (100%)
				Fiorentina (60%) Betis (36%)
Celje (100%)
		Fiorentina (94%)
Fiorentina (100%)
						Chelsea (54%) Fiorentina (27%) Betis (14%)
Chelsea (100%)
		Chelsea (92%)
Legia (100%)
				Chelsea (85%)
Djurgarden (100%)
		Djurgarden (50%) Rapid Wien (50%)
Rapid Wien (100%)

 Which countries get extra CL spots

		Score
Country	Probability	Average	Min	Max
ENG	>99.99%	19.57	16.36	22.86
ESP	99.46%	18.15	15.21	21.07
ITA	< 1%	15.32	13.25	17
GER	< 1%	13.44	12.31	15.63

Number of semifinalists from ESP; 19 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4
Probability	< 1%	7%	28%	43%	21%
Chance if	72%	95.5%	99.78%	>99.99%	100%

Number of finalists from ESP; 13 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4
Probability	16%	38%	33%	12%	1.7%
Chance if	96.7%	99.94%	100%	100%	100%

Number of finalists from ITA; 10 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	16%	42%	33%	8%
Chance if	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	4.4%

Number of semifinalists from ITA; 6 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	< 1%	13%	46%	40%
Chance if	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.3%

Number of tournament winners for ESP; 6 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	43%	43%	13%	1.2%
Chance if	98.7%	99.97%	100%	100%

Number of tournament winners for ITA; 3 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	48%	40%	11%	< 1%
Chance if	< 1%	< 1%	1.7%	5%

Number of semifinalists from ENG; 0 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4	5
Probability	< 1%	8%	27%	38%	22%	4.3%
Chance if	99.8%	>99.99%	100%	100%	100%	100%

Number of finalists from ENG; 0 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4
Probability	4.2%	31%	42%	20%	3.2%
Chance if	99.98%	100%	100%	100%	100%

Number of tournament winners for ENG; 0 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	24%	47%	25%	3.7%
Chance if	>99.99%	100%	100%	100%

Number of semifinalists from GER; 0 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	26%	45%	25%	4.4%
Chance if	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%