PL: Newcastle secure a place in Europe

Newcastle win the League Cup and secure a slot in at least the Conference League. In 76% of the simulations they rather reach EL or CL as detailed below. After the international break we have a couple of matches that are important for the CL race.

 

Important matches for CL race
Newcastle vs Brentford (5.1%)	Home Win (56%)	Draw (22%)	Away Win (22%)
Newcastle	58%	41%	32%
Brentford	< 1%	< 1%	1.8%
Chelsea	49%	54%	57%
Chelsea vs Tottenham (5.1%)	Home Win (54%)	Draw (22%)	Away Win (23%)
Chelsea	62%	44%	35%
Newcastle	45%	51%	53%
Brighton vs Aston Villa (4.8%)	Home Win (48%)	Draw (23%)	Away Win (28%)
Brighton	23%	12%	7%
Aston Villa	4.5%	7%	14%

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
70	Liverpool	88.8	+53	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	100%	98.7%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
58	Arsenal	76.8	+40	< 1%	>99.99%	>99.99%	99.97%	99.85%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%	99.98%
54	Forest	67.4	+16	< 1%	97.8%	94%	85%	68%	< 1%	2.5%	11%	85%
48	Man City	66.3	+25	< 1%	96.6%	92%	83%	64%	< 1%	2.5%	13%	83%
49	Chelsea	63.3	+19	< 1%	86%	73%	52%	29%	< 1%	4.6%	39%	52%
47	Newcastle	63.3	+13	< 1%	83%	69%	48%	27%	< 1%	24%	28%	48%
47	Brighton	59.9	+7	< 1%	52%	32%	16%	6%	< 1%	18%	33%	16%
45	Aston Villa	57.6	-4	< 1%	26%	14%	6%	2.1%	< 1%	13%	24%	8%
44	Bournemouth	57.5	+14	< 1%	31%	15%	6%	2.0%	< 1%	16%	28%	6%
45	Fulham	55.8	+2	< 1%	15%	7%	2.5%	< 1%	< 1%	10%	18%	2.5%
41	Crystal Palace	54.0	+2	< 1%	8%	3.2%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%	6%	13%	1.1%
41	Brentford	52.7	+4	< 1%	4.5%	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	4.1%	2.5%	< 1%
37	Man United	48.2	-5	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	13%
34	Tottenham	46.8	+12	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	19%
34	West Ham	46.0	-17	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
34	Everton	44.5	-7	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
25	Wolves	36.1	-21	2.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
17	Leicester	24.9	-48	98.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
17	Ipswich	24.3	-43	98.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
9	Southampton	15.3	-60	>99.99%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

 

 Most likely combo of teams in CL

19%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Forest, Liverpool, Man City
18%	Arsenal, Forest, Liverpool, Man City, Newcastle
5%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Forest, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham
5%	Arsenal, Forest, Liverpool, Man City, Newcastle, Tottenham
4.8%	Arsenal, Brighton, Forest, Liverpool, Man City
4.7%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Newcastle
4.6%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Forest, Liverpool, Newcastle
3.6%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Forest, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
3.4%	Arsenal, Forest, Liverpool, Man City, Man United, Newcastle
1.6%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Forest, Liverpool, Man City

Most likely combo of teams being relegated

97.6%	Ipswich, Leicester, Southampton
1.4%	Ipswich, Southampton, Wolves
1.1%	Leicester, Southampton, Wolves