World Cup Qualifiers: Africa

Morocco and Tunisia have clinched qualifications. Egypt and Algeria have almost (>90%) clinched qualifications. 

Group winner advance to the World Cup.
The four best runner-ups play knockout playoff round
to determine which team will play in intercontinental
playoff.


Group A
Egypt clinch qualifications if they win against Djibouti (91%)
Egypt clinch playoff if they draw (or win) against Djibouti (97%)

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	Top-2	At least Playoff	Group Winner	World Cup
8	20	Egypt	25.3	+19	100%	>99.99%	99.69%	99.76%
8	15	Burkina Faso	18.9	+14	94%	58%	< 1%	4.1%
8	12	Sierra Leone	15.3	+3	6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
8	10	Guinea-Bissau	11.6	-2	< 1%
8	6	Ethiopia	8.1	-5
8	1	Djibouti	1.8	-28

Group B
Senegal clinch qualifications if they win against Mauritania and South Sudan (76%)
Senegal clinch playoff if they draw (or win) against Mauritania and win against South Sudan (84%)
Democratic Republic of Congo clinch playoff if they win against Sudan and Togo (29%)

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	Top-2	At least Playoff	Group Winner	World Cup
8	18	Senegal	23.4	+15	>99.99%	99.68%	96.0%	97.4%
8	16	Democratic Republic of Congo	19.7	+9	95%	68%	4.0%	11%
8	12	Sudan	14.5	+2	5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
8	7	Togo	10.1	-4
8	6	Mauritania	7.2	-8
8	4	South Sudan	5.1	-15

Group C
South Africa clinch qualifications if they win against Rwanda and Nigeria draw (or win) against Benin (60%)
South Africa clinch playoff if they win against Rwanda and Nigeria draw (or win) against Benin (60%)

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	Top-2	At least Playoff	Group Winner	World Cup
8	17	South Africa	21	+10	99.88%	97.7%	97.4%	97.4%
8	14	Benin	16	+3	48%	6%	1.7%	1.9%
8	11	Nigeria	15.1	+4	49%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
8	11	Rwanda	13	-1	3.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
8	6	Lesotho	7.9	-9
8	4	Zimbabwe	6.6	-6

Group D
Cape Verde clinch qualifications if they win against Eswatini (75%)
Cape Verde clinch playoff if they win against Eswatini (75%)

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	Top-2	At least Playoff	Group Winner	World Cup
8	19	Cape Verde	22.7	+7	96.6%	95%	89%	90%
8	15	Cameroon	19.4	+13	82%	61%	7%	16%
8	14	Libya	17.6	+3	21%	16%	3.6%	4.0%
8	10	Angola	13.1	+2	< 1%
8	5	Mauritius	5.9	-12
8	2	Eswatini	3.1	-13

Group E

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	Top-2	At least Playoff	Group Winner	World Cup
7	21	Morocco	29.5	+29	100%	100%	100%	100%
5	6	Tanzania	15.9	+2	49%	11%	< 1%	< 1%
6	9	Niger	15.7	-0	38%	6%	< 1%	< 1%
5	3	Zambia	12	0	11%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
3	0	Congo	7	-17	< 1%	< 1%
0	0	Eritrea	6.8	-15	1.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group F
Ivory Coast clinch qualifications if they win against Seychelles and Kenya (62%)
Ivory Coast clinch playoff if they win against Seychelles (91%)
Gabon clinch playoff if they win against Burundi (67%)

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	Top-2	At least Playoff	Group Winner	World Cup
8	20	Ivory Coast	25	+20	100%	99.99%	90%	91%
8	19	Gabon	22.4	+11	100%	97.3%	10%	14%
8	10	Gambia	14	+5
8	10	Burundi	11.9	+2
8	9	Kenya	11.1	+5
8	0	Seychelles	0.5	-42

Group G
Algeria clinch qualifications if they win against Somalia (93%)
Algeria clinch playoff if they win against Somalia (93%)

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	Top-2	At least Playoff	Group Winner	World Cup
8	19	Algeria	24.3	+17	99.93%	99.89%	99.59%	99.66%
8	15	Mozambique	19.2	-0	79%	39%	< 1%	2.2%
8	15	Uganda	16.6	+3	18%	4.5%	< 1%	< 1%
8	11	Guinea	14.3	+3	2.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
8	9	Botswana	11.3	-4	< 1%
8	1	Somalia	1.4	-19

Group H

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	Top-2	At least Playoff	Group Winner	World Cup
8	22	Tunisia	27	+17	100%	100%	100%	100%
8	15	Namibia	16.6	+6	78%	7%	< 1%	< 1%
8	10	Equatorial Guinea	14	-2	12%
8	11	Liberia	13	-1	5%	< 1%
8	10	Malawi	13	-1	5%
8	0	São Tomé and Príncipe	1.2	-19

Group I
Ghana clinch qualifications if they draw (or win) against Comoros and Mali win against Madagascar (59%)
Ghana clinch playoff if they draw (or win) against Comoros and Mali win against Madagascar (59%)
Madagascar clinch playoff if they win against Comoros and Mali (1%)

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	Top-2	At least Playoff	Group Winner	World Cup
8	19	Ghana	22.3	+12	99.94%	95.9%	89%	90%
8	15	Comoros	18.1	+2	46%	23%	10%	10%
8	16	Madagascar	17	+4	26%	11%	< 1%	1.0%
8	12	Mali	16.9	+10	28%	3.8%	< 1%	< 1%
8	5	Central African Republic	7.7	-9
8	1	Chad	2.8	-18

Runners-up

		Average when 2nd		Probabilities
Group	Team	Point	GD	2nd	Playoff	1st
F	Ivory Coast	23.1	17	10%	10%	90%
F	Gabon	22.2	11	90%	87%	10%
B	Senegal	20.9	11	4.0%	3.7%	96.0%
A	Egypt	20.8	12	< 1%	< 1%	99.69%
D	Cape Verde	20	3	7%	6%	89%
B	Democratic Republic of Congo	19.8	9	91%	64%	4.0%
G	Algeria	19.8	10	< 1%	< 1%	99.59%
D	Cameroon	19.7	13	75%	54%	7%
G	Mozambique	19.6	0	79%	39%	< 1%
D	Libya	19.5	5	18%	12%	3.6%
I	Ghana	19.4	8	11%	7%	89%
A	Burkina Faso	19.2	14	93%	58%	< 1%
I	Comoros	19.1	3	37%	13%	10%
I	Madagascar	18.9	6	25%	10%	< 1%
G	Uganda	18.5	5	18%	4.3%	< 1%
I	Mali	18	11	28%	3.8%	< 1%
B	Sudan	17.8	6	5%	< 1%	< 1%
A	Sierra Leone	17.8	6	6%	< 1%	< 1%
E	Tanzania	17.8	4	49%	11%	< 1%
C	South Africa	17.7	6	2.5%	< 1%	97.4%
E	Niger	17.5	2	38%	6%	< 1%
C	Benin	17.1	4	46%	3.8%	1.7%
H	Namibia	17.1	7	78%	7%	< 1%
G	Guinea	16.9	6	2.3%	< 1%	< 1%
H	Liberia	16.6	3	5%	< 1%
C	Nigeria	16.4	6	48%	< 1%	< 1%
C	Rwanda	16.3	3	3.3%	< 1%	< 1%
E	Zambia	16.1	5	11%	< 1%	< 1%
D	Angola	16	5	< 1%	< 1%
A	Guinea-Bissau	16	3	< 1%	< 1%
H	Malawi	16	3	5%	< 1%
H	Equatorial Guinea	16	0	12%	< 1%
E	Eritrea	15.9	-3	1.0%	< 1%	< 1%
E	Congo	15.4	-7	< 1%	< 1%
G	Botswana	15	1	< 1%	< 1%