World Cup Qualifiers: Europe

France, Spain, Portugal, and England have almost clinched qualifications, but all need a few more results in their favour to be certain. More details and clinching scenarios during the October meetings below. 

Group A

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	At least Playoff	Top-2	Group Winner	World Cup
2	3	Germany	13.1	+9	100%	96.8%	64%	84%
2	6	Slovakia	12.5	+4	89%	89%	33%	45%
2	3	Northern Ireland	7.5	-2	99.91%	14%	2.7%	12%
2	0	Luxembourg	1.6	-11	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group B

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	At least Playoff	Top-2	Group Winner	World Cup
2	6	Switzerland	12.4	+8	94%	94%	80%	85%
2	1	Sweden	7.4	-1	>99.99%	44%	10%	34%
2	1	Slovenia	7.3	-2	41%	41%	7%	15%
2	3	Kosovo	6.2	-6	21%	21%	2.7%	4.5%

Sweden clinch playoff if Germany win against Luxembourg and Germany draw (or win) against Northern Ireland (81%)
Switzerland clinch playoff if they win against Slovenia and Sweden (13%)

Group C

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	At least Playoff	Top-2	Group Winner	World Cup
2	4	Denmark	12.2	+8	90%	89%	60%	72%
2	4	Scotland	10.3	+4	66%	65%	25%	37%
2	3	Greece	9.2	+2	45%	45%	15%	26%
2	0	Belarus	1.8	-13	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group D

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	At least Playoff	Top-2	Group Winner	World Cup
2	6	France	16.5	+13	100%	99.96%	98.8%	99.61%
2	1	Ukraine	8.2	+1	68%	68%	< 1%	23%
2	3	Iceland	6.5	0	31%	31%	< 1%	3.9%
2	1	Azerbaijan	2.6	-15	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group E

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	At least Playoff	Top-2	Group Winner	World Cup
2	6	Spain	16.8	+21	100%	99.97%	99.17%	99.81%
2	3	Turkey	9.7	-4	79%	79%	< 1%	24%
2	3	Georgia	6.1	-3	19%	19%	< 1%	4.2%
2	0	Bulgaria	2.3	-13	1.6%	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%

Group F

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	At least Playoff	Top-2	Group Winner	World Cup
2	6	Portugal	16	+15	100%	99.92%	98.2%	99.25%
2	1	Hungary	8.5	+2	83%	82%	1.6%	26%
2	1	Ireland	4.7	-5	10%	10%	< 1%	1.5%
2	3	Armenia	4.5	-13	8%	8%	< 1%	< 1%

Group G

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	At least Playoff	Top-2	Group Winner	World Cup
3	7	Netherlands	20	+17	99.71%	99.70%	94%	96.7%
5	10	Poland	15.6	+7	94%	94%	6%	25%
5	7	Finland	12.1	-1	7%	7%	< 1%	< 1%
5	3	Lithuania	4	-9	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
4	2	Malta	3.2	-13	< 1%	< 1%

Netherlands clinch playoff if they win against Finland and Hungary draw against Armenia (9%)

Group H

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	At least Playoff	Top-2	Group Winner	World Cup
4	12	Austria	21.8	+18	99.91%	99.91%	98.5%	99.10%
5	12	Bosnia and Herzegovina	14.9	+5	63%	63%	1.3%	4.9%
5	7	Romania	13	+9	100%	37%	< 1%	24%
5	4	Cyprus	7.8	-3	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
5	0	San Marino	0.5	-30	23%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Austria clinch playoff if they win against San Marino and draw (or win) against Romania (67%)
Bosnia and Herzegovina clinch playoff if they win against Cyprus and Austria draw (or win) against Romania (32%)

Group I

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	At least Playoff	Top-2	Group Winner	World Cup
5	15	Norway	20.7	+24	100%	99.93%	82%	89%
4	9	Italy	18.9	+13	98.0%	97.9%	18%	59%
5	9	Israel	12.3	+2	2.8%	2.2%	< 1%	< 1%
5	3	Estonia	5.3	-12	< 1%	< 1%
5	0	Moldova	1.7	-27	70%	< 1%	< 1%	1.6%

Group J

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	At least Playoff	Top-2	Group Winner	World Cup
4	10	Belgium	19.2	+22	96.7%	96.4%	83%	89%
5	10	Wales	16.3	+10	100%	73%	12%	34%
5	11	North Macedonia	14.5	+8	>99.99%	31%	4.5%	17%
5	3	Kazakhstan	6.8	-8
5	0	Liechtenstein	0.3	-31

North Macedonia clinch playoff if Norway draw (or win) against Israel and Germany win against Northern Ireland (63%)
Belgium clinch playoff if they win against North Macedonia and Wales (29%)

Group K

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	At least Playoff	Top-2	Group Winner	World Cup
5	15	England	22.3	+19	100%	>99.99%	98.5%	99.38%
4	7	Serbia	15.4	+5	86%	85%	1.5%	31%
5	8	Albania	11.8	+2	14%	14%	< 1%	2.3%
5	4	Latvia	6.5	-9	< 1%	< 1%
5	0	Andorra	1	-17

England clinch qualifications if they win against Latvia and Albania draw (or win) against Serbia (29%)

Group L

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	At least Playoff	Top-2	Group Winner	World Cup
4	12	Croatia	21.5	+26	>99.99%	>99.99%	89%	94%
5	12	Czechia	18.6	+12	100%	99.96%	11%	36%
5	6	Montenegro	10.9	-4	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
5	6	Faroe Islands	7.4	-7	< 1%	< 1%
5	0	Gibraltar	0.5	-27

Croatia clinch qualifications if they win against Czechia and Faroe Islands win against Czechia (4%)
Croatia clinch playoff if they win against Gibraltar (98%)
 

Group winner advance to the World Cup.
The 12 Runner-ups together with four best group winners
from Nations League play a playoff for the remaining four slots

Nations League Ranking

Group	Team	At least Playoff	NL Slot	Top-2	Group Winner	World Cup
E	Spain	100%	< 1%	99.97%	99.17%	99.81%
A	Germany	100%	3.2%	96.8%	64%	84%
F	Portugal	100%	< 1%	99.92%	98.2%	99.25%
D	France	100%	< 1%	99.96%	98.8%	99.61%
K	England	100%	< 1%	>99.99%	98.5%	99.38%
I	Norway	100%	< 1%	99.93%	82%	89%
J	Wales	100%	27%	73%	12%	34%
L	Czechia	100%	< 1%	99.96%	11%	36%
H	Romania	100%	63%	37%	< 1%	24%
B	Sweden	>99.99%	56%	44%	10%	34%
J	North Macedonia	>99.99%	69%	31%	4.5%	17%
A	Northern Ireland	99.91%	85%	14%	2.7%	12%
I	Moldova	70%	70%	< 1%	< 1%	1.6%
H	San Marino	23%	23%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
I	Italy	98.0%	< 1%	97.9%	18%	59%
G	Netherlands	99.71%	< 1%	99.70%	94%	96.7%
C	Denmark	90%	< 1%	89%	60%	72%
L	Croatia	>99.99%	< 1%	>99.99%	89%	94%
C	Scotland	66%	< 1%	65%	25%	37%
K	Serbia	86%	< 1%	85%	1.5%	31%
F	Hungary	83%	< 1%	82%	1.6%	26%
J	Belgium	96.7%	< 1%	96.4%	83%	89%
G	Poland	94%	< 1%	94%	6%	25%
I	Israel	2.8%	< 1%	2.2%	< 1%	< 1%