Uruguay, Paraguay, and Colombia clinch the remaining three direct slots for South America. Bolivia will partake in the intercontinental playoff.
| Average Simulation | Probabilities | ||||||
| m | p | Country | Point | GD | Top-7 | Top-6 | World Cup |
| 18 | 38 | Argentina | 38 | +21 | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| 18 | 32 | Ecuador | 29 | +9 | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| 18 | 28 | Colombia | 28 | +10 | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| 18 | 28 | Uruguay | 28 | +10 | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| 18 | 28 | Brazil | 28 | +7 | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| 18 | 28 | Paraguay | 28 | +4 | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| 18 | 20 | Bolivia | 20 | -18 | 100% | < 1% | 53% |
| 18 | 18 | Venezuela | 18 | -10 | |||
| 18 | 12 | Peru | 12 | -15 | |||
| 18 | 11 | Chile | 11 | -18 | |||
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