PL: Liverpool with the poorest form.

The champions are the coldest team with only three points in the last five matches, 6.1 points less than in the average simulation. 

Hot Teams
Sunderland: 10 points in the last 5 matches, 6.1 more than expected
Man United: 12 points in the last 5 matches, 5.1 more than expected
Aston Villa: 13 points in the last 5 matches, 4.4 more than expected
Arsenal: 13 points in the last 5 matches, 3.2 more than expected
Brentford: 9 points in the last 5 matches, 2.6 more than expected

Cold Teams
Liverpool: 3 points in the last 5 matches, 6.1 less than expected
Forest: 1 point in the last 5 matches, 5.4 less than expected
Wolves: 2 points in the last 5 matches, 4.7 less than expected
West Ham: 1 point in the last 5 matches, 4.0 less than expected
Chelsea: 6 points in the last 5 matches, 2.5 less than expected

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
22	Arsenal	80.4	+44	< 1%	99.93%	99.83%	99.61%	99.05%	72%	< 1%	< 1%	99.64%
15	Liverpool	72.5	+31	< 1%	98.4%	97.0%	95%	90%	17%	< 1%	3.6%	95%
16	Man City	69.4	+32	< 1%	95.5%	93%	88%	80%	9%	2.0%	8%	88%
14	Chelsea	59.8	+15	< 1%	62%	51%	39%	26%	< 1%	10%	23%	40%
15	Aston Villa	58.8	+7	< 1%	54%	43%	31%	19%	< 1%	7%	17%	48%
13	Crystal Palace	58.7	+12	< 1%	55%	45%	33%	21%	< 1%	5%	44%	32%
18	Bournemouth	58.6	+6	< 1%	53%	42%	30%	19%	< 1%	9%	22%	29%
12	Newcastle	57.5	+9	< 1%	48%	37%	26%	16%	< 1%	12%	22%	27%
17	Tottenham	56.2	+8	< 1%	40%	30%	20%	12%	< 1%	10%	19%	20%
16	Man United	54.5	-2	< 1%	30%	21%	14%	7%	< 1%	8%	16%	13%
12	Brighton	54.2	+2	< 1%	29%	20%	13%	7%	< 1%	10%	17%	12%
13	Brentford	51.4	-3	2.1%	16%	11%	6%	2.9%	< 1%	10%	11%	6%
11	Everton	49.5	-6	4.1%	11%	7%	3.7%	1.7%	< 1%	4.5%	8%	3.6%
8	Fulham	46.6	-8	9%	5%	2.9%	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%	7%	4.8%	1.4%
11	Leeds	43.3	-18	20%	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.1%	1.9%	< 1%
10	Burnley	40.7	-21	33%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.0%	< 1%
5	Forest	40.3	-20	34%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.6%	7%
17	Sunderland	38.4	-30	48%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
4	West Ham	35.8	-27	63%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
2	Wolves	31.2	-31	85%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Titles

Team	League	FA Cup	League Cup	Europe
Arsenal	72%	23%	26%	19%
Liverpool	17%	20%	22%	14%
Man City	9%	14%	19%	9%
Chelsea	< 1%	6%	7%	2.9%
Aston Villa	< 1%	5.0%		25%
Crystal Palace	< 1%	5%	3.2%	46%
Bournemouth	< 1%	3.1%
Newcastle	< 1%	5%	8%	2.1%
Tottenham	< 1%	2.5%	2.1%	< 1%
Man United	< 1%	2.1%
Brighton	< 1%	3.4%	2.1%
Brentford	< 1%	2.2%	5%
Everton	< 1%	2.2%
Fulham	< 1%	1.8%	4.5%
Leeds	< 1%	< 1%
Burnley	< 1%	< 1%
Forest	< 1%	1.3%		7%
Sunderland		< 1%
West Ham		< 1%
Wolves		< 1%	< 1%

Important match for title race
Burnley vs Arsenal (1.7%)	Home Win (19%)	Draw (21%)	Away Win (60%)
Arsenal	64%	68%	76%
Liverpool	21%	19%	14%
Man City	12%	10%	8%

 

Important matches for CL race
Tottenham vs Chelsea (2.9%)	Home Win (41%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (35%)
Chelsea	33%	38%	49%
Tottenham	26%	18%	14%
Man City vs Bournemouth (2.1%)	Home Win (64%)	Draw (20%)	Away Win (17%)
Bournemouth	26%	31%	41%
Man City	91%	85%	81%

 

EL: Lyon, Midtjylland and Braga with a perfect start

Lyon, Midtjylland and Braga with full 9 points after three matches and can clinch a place in the knockout stage next matchday .

Clinching Scenarios

• Lyon clinch knockout stage if they draw (or win) against Betis (54%)
• Braga clinch knockout stage if they win against Genk (54%)
• Midtjylland clinch knockout stage if they win against Celtic (53%)
• Lille clinch knockout stage if they win against Crvena Zvezda and Dinamo Zagreb draw (or win) against Celta (31%)
• Freiburg clinch knockout stage if they win against Nice and Dinamo Zagreb draw against Celta (7%)

Pos	Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Top 24	Top 16	Top 8	R16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
1	9	Lyon	19	15-6	99.98%	99.2%	91%	97.9%	65%	39%	21%	11%
2	6	Aston Villa	18	16-6	99.91%	98.5%	86%	97.7%	76%	55%	39%	25%
3	7	Lille	17	12-7	99.5%	94%	69%	92%	63%	39%	22%	12%
4	9	Midtjylland	16	19-10	99.7%	95%	70%	87%	40%	15%	5%	1.7%
5	9	Braga	16	16-10	99.5%	93%	64%	84%	39%	15%	5%	1.8%
6	6	Porto	16	13-7	99.2%	92%	63%	89%	54%	29%	14%	7%
7	7	Freiburg	15	12-9	98.3%	84%	44%	78%	39%	17%	7%	2.7%
8	5	Betis	14	14-7	96.4%	79%	39%	79%	47%	25%	13%	6%
9	4	Forest	14	16-11	96.3%	78%	36%	80%	49%	28%	15%	7%
10	4	Bologna	14	15-12	95.2%	75%	33%	75%	43%	22%	10%	4.7%
11	6	Fenerbahce	14	11-10	95%	72%	31%	68%	31%	13%	4.6%	1.7%
12	3	Roma	13	11-7	92%	67%	25%	78%	53%	34%	21%	12%
13	7	Ferencvaros	13	14-11	94%	67%	23%	48%	12%	2.5%	< 1%	< 1%
14	7	Viktoria Plzen	13	12-9	92%	64%	25%	52%	15%	3.9%	< 1%	< 1%
15	6	Celta	13	15-13	92%	64%	25%	63%	28%	11%	4.0%	1.4%
16	7	Dinamo Zagreb	13	13-12	93%	61%	20%	49%	15%	3.7%	< 1%	< 1%
17	3	Stuttgart	12	11-10	85%	50%	12%	57%	29%	14%	6%	2.5%
18	6	Brann	11	11-8	81%	42%	11%	37%	10%	2.5%	< 1%	< 1%
19	4	Genk	11	9-8	78%	39%	9%	42%	15%	4.7%	1.4%	< 1%
20	3	Feyenoord	11	8-7	76%	38%	7%	49%	23%	11%	4.5%	1.8%
21	6	Go Ahead Eagles	10	9-16	56%	17%	2.3%	15%	2.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
22	4	Celtic	10	11-21	54%	18%	2.5%	26%	9%	3.1%	< 1%	< 1%
23	3	Panathinaikos	9	13-12	57%	21%	3.0%	21%	5%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%
24	3	Basel	9	10-12	51%	15%	1.8%	18%	4.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
25	6	Young Boys	9	11-15	50%	14%	1.7%	16%	3.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
26	3	Sturm Graz	9	8-12	46%	14%	1.6%	17%	4.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
27	0	Nice	8	12-12	43%	11%	< 1%	23%	10%	4.0%	1.5%	< 1%
28	2	PAOK	8	13-14	41%	11%	< 1%	15%	4.1%	1.0%	< 1%	< 1%
29	3	Razgrad	8	10-12	41%	11%	1.3%	12%	2.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
30	1	Crvena Zvezda	8	10-12	41%	11%	< 1%	18%	6%	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%
31	3	Steaua	7	10-18	21%	4.0%	< 1%	4.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
32	0	Rangers	6	6-17	11%	1.4%	< 1%	3.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
33	0	Salzburg	5	6-13	6%	< 1%	< 1%	1.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
34	1	Malmoe	5	9-17	9%	< 1%	< 1%	2.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
35	0	Utrecht	5	8-18	8%	< 1%	< 1%	2.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
36	1	M Tel Aviv	4	4-14	3.4%	< 1%	< 1%	1.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Expected Requirement

	Top 24		Top 16		Top 8
	Pts	GD	Pts	GD	Pts	GD
1%	11	11-16	13	17-8	17	16-8
5%	10	8-8	13	13-10	16	23-10
25%	10	7-11	13	11-12	16	14-9
50%	9	10-11	12	14-12	15	18-10
75%	9	8-12	12	13-14	15	13-9
95%	8	11-14	11	10-9	14	12-7
99%	8	8-14	11	11-13	14	10-8

Conference League

Clinching Scenarios

• Crystal Palace clinch knockout stage if they win against Larnaca and Fiorentina win against Rapid Wien (50%)
• Strasbourg clinch knockout stage if they win against Jagiellonia and Alkmaar draw against Slovan Bratislava (12%)
• Shakhtar clinch knockout stage if they win against Legia and Crystal Palace draw against Larnaca (6%)
• Larnaca clinch knockout stage if they win against Crystal Palace and Samsunspor and Dynamo Kyiv do not draw  (4%)

Pos	Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Top 24	Top 16	Top 8	R16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
1	3	Crystal Palace	15	19-3	99.98%	99.6%	93%	99.7%	91%	78%	64%	47%
2	3	Strasbourg	14	14-5	99.8%	97.3%	79%	97.3%	76%	51%	28%	13%
3	3	Shakhtar	14	15-7	99.6%	96.4%	78%	93%	53%	22%	7%	1.9%
4	3	Rayo Vallecano	13	14-6	99.4%	94%	69%	93%	64%	35%	15%	6%
5	3	Mainz	13	13-5	99.5%	94%	69%	95.1%	71%	45%	24%	10%
6	3	Fiorentina	13	12-6	99.1%	92%	64%	95%	73%	48%	28%	13%
7	3	Sparta Praha	12	13-5	98.3%	88%	55%	87%	50%	22%	8%	2.5%
8	3	Celje	11	15-10	95.6%	79%	40%	72%	28%	8%	1.7%	< 1%
9	3	Rakow	11	9-4	95.9%	78%	38%	75%	34%	12%	3.4%	< 1%
10	3	Lech	11	12-8	96.4%	78%	36%	74%	32%	11%	2.7%	< 1%
11	3	Larnaca	11	12-9	96.6%	79%	34%	71%	27%	8%	1.8%	< 1%
12	3	Samsunspor	11	6-5	95%	74%	30%	64%	21%	5%	< 1%	< 1%
13	3	Jagiellonia	10	9-8	92%	65%	22%	65%	27%	9%	2.5%	< 1%
14	3	Lausanne	10	8-9	89%	59%	20%	51%	14%	3.0%	< 1%	< 1%
15	0	Alkmaar	10	5-12	87%	56%	12%	65%	31%	14%	4.7%	1.5%
16	0	AEK	9	9-8	84%	50%	12%	59%	25%	10%	3.0%	< 1%
17	0	Legia	8	7-7	75%	37%	8%	45%	16%	4.9%	1.2%	< 1%
18	3	Noah	8	6-11	68%	31%	6%	22%	2.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
19	0	Omonia	7	7-5	68%	33%	7%	39%	13%	3.5%	< 1%	< 1%
20	0	Sigma Olomouc	7	6-7	62%	27%	5%	26%	5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
21	0	Dynamo Kyiv	7	10-12	63%	25%	3.6%	34%	11%	3.1%	< 1%	< 1%
22	3	Zrinjski Mostar	7	7-10	59%	21%	2.8%	17%	2.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
23	0	Rijeka	7	4-9	55%	20%	3.1%	22%	4.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
24	0	Shamrock	7	9-15	53%	19%	2.5%	19%	3.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
25	1	Haecken	6	9-10	51%	19%	3.0%	21%	4.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
26	0	Rapid Wien	6	9-11	49%	18%	2.5%	23%	6%	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%
27	0	Craiova	6	7-9	48%	17%	2.3%	24%	7%	1.9%	< 1%	< 1%
28	0	Slovan Bratislava	6	7-9	47%	16%	2.1%	18%	3.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
29	1	Drita	5	7-11	35%	9%	< 1%	7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
30	1	Kuopio	5	7-12	34%	8%	< 1%	8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
31	1	Shelbourne	5	8-14	31%	6%	< 1%	7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
32	0	Shkendija	5	3-12	28%	7%	< 1%	4.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
33	0	Hamrun	4	6-13	17%	3.0%	< 1%	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
34	0	Breidablik	4	2-11	16%	2.5%	< 1%	2.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
35	0	Aberdeen	3	4-11	10%	1.4%	< 1%	2.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
36	0	Lincoln	2	6-15	4.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Expected Requirement

	Top 24		Top 16		Top 8
	Pts	GD	Pts	GD	Pts	GD
1%	8	7-12	10	12-8	14	11-4
5%	7	7-7	10	10-8	13	14-6
25%	7	6-9	10	6-9	13	11-7
50%	7	3-11	9	9-7	12	12-5
75%	6	5-7	9	9-10	12	15-12
95%	6	6-14	8	9-8	11	15-11
99%	5	10-14	8	8-10	10	17-10

Which countries get extra CL spots

		Score
Country	Probability	Average	Min	Max
ENG	92%	19.04	11.06	25.44
ITA	36%	15.79	7.93	24.14
POL	32%	15.75	8.38	25.13
ESP	16%	14.75	7.81	23.63
GER	15%	14.52	7.43	23.29
FRA	4.2%	13.45	7.81	21.44
POR	4.0%	12.96	6.2	23
UKR	< 1%	10.92	5	19.5
NED	< 1%	10.05	4.92	19.7
CYP	< 1%	10.04	5	18.13
CZE	< 1%	9.54	4.2	17
GRE	< 1%	8.77	4.1	17.2
DEN	< 1%	9.23	5.63	16.63
TUR	< 1%	8.9	4	16

Number of quarterfinalists from ITA; 239 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
Probability	1.4%	10%	28%	34%	20%	5%	< 1%
Chance if	< 1%	2%	13%	37%	68%	91%	99%

Number of quarterfinalists from POL; 210 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	24%	47%	24%	4.1%
Chance if	4%	25%	63%	91%

Number of semifinalists from ITA; 199 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4
Probability	14%	36%	33%	13%	2.4%
Chance if	5%	19%	46%	77%	95%

Number of teams in last-16 stage from ITA; 199 mbit

n	2	3	4	5	6	7
Probability	1.1%	8%	25%	37%	24%	5%
Chance if	< 1%	2%	11%	35%	64%	85%

Number of teams in last-16 stage from POL; 197 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4
Probability	< 1%	9%	34%	42%	14%
Chance if	< 1%	1%	11%	41%	75%

Number of quarterfinalists from GER; 157 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4	5
Probability	2.4%	15%	34%	32%	14%	2.7%
Chance if	< 1%	< 1%	4%	16%	44%	75%

Number of quarterfinalists from ESP; 156 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
Probability	1.3%	9%	26%	34%	22%	7%	< 1%
Chance if	< 1%	< 1%	2.5%	11%	31%	61%	85%

Number of semifinalists from POL; 142 mbit

n	0	1	2
Probability	66%	30%	3.1%
Chance if	18%	56%	93%

Number of semifinalists from ESP; 135 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4
Probability	16%	38%	31%	12%	2.1%
Chance if	1.2%	6%	20%	46%	79%

Number of semifinalists from GER; 134 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4
Probability	21%	42%	28%	8%	< 1%
Chance if	1.1%	7%	23%	54%	86%

 

Champions League - Five teams with three wins

Five teams with perfect three wins have practically (>99.9%) secured a place in the knockout stage.  11 points will most certainly suffice for advancement and even nine or ten points are likely to be enough, and a number of teams can secure the advancement next matchday, as detailed below.

Clinching Scenarios

• Inter clinch knockout stage if they draw (or win) against Kairat (99%)
• Paris SG clinch knockout stage if they draw (or win) against Bayern (76%)
• Bayern clinch knockout stage if they draw (or win) against Paris SG and Chelsea draw (or win) against Karabakh Agdam (38%)
• Real Madrid clinch knockout stage if they draw (or win) against Liverpool and Man City and Dortmund do not draw  (35%)
• Man City clinch knockout stage if they win against Dortmund and Paris SG draw against Bayern (14%)
• Dortmund clinch knockout stage if they win against Man City and Barcelona win against Brugge (9%)
• Barcelona clinch knockout stage if they win against Brugge and Kairat draw (or win) against Inter (3%)

Pos	Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Top 24	Top 16	Top 8	R16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
1	9	Arsenal	19	21-5	>99.99%	99.91%	94%	99.08%	76%	51%	32%	19%
2	9	Paris SG	19	18-4	>99.99%	99.42%	90%	98.1%	72%	46%	27%	15%
3	9	Inter	17	21-6	>99.99%	99.35%	79%	95%	59%	29%	14%	6%
4	9	Bayern	17	23-11	99.98%	98.3%	78%	95%	63%	35%	18%	9%
5	9	Real Madrid	17	15-4	99.96%	97.9%	75%	94%	59%	31%	15%	7%
6	7	Man City	17	15-8	99.78%	96.2%	69%	93%	61%	34%	18%	9%
7	6	Liverpool	16	18-8	99.77%	95.8%	65%	93%	66%	41%	25%	14%
8	6	Barcelona	16	18-9	99.57%	94%	61%	91%	58%	32%	16%	8%
9	6	Chelsea	15	14-10	98.8%	87%	40%	79%	40%	17%	7%	3.0%
10	7	Dortmund	14	19-11	98.7%	86%	40%	76%	33%	12%	4.3%	1.6%
11	6	Newcastle	13	16-8	96.7%	78%	27%	72%	32%	13%	5%	2.1%
12	5	Tottenham	13	10-10	93%	66%	16%	57%	19%	6%	1.9%	< 1%
13	3	Atletico	12	15-14	87%	54%	10%	57%	22%	9%	3.3%	1.3%
14	6	Sporting	12	13-13	88%	53%	10%	50%	15%	4.8%	1.4%	< 1%
15	3	Napoli	12	13-14	87%	53%	10%	54%	21%	8%	2.7%	1.00%
16	6	Galatasaray	12	11-16	84%	46%	8%	37%	8%	1.8%	< 1%	< 1%
17	2	Juventus	11	14-12	81%	43%	5%	45%	15%	5.0%	1.5%	< 1%
18	4	Atalanta	11	12-13	81%	44%	8%	49%	18%	7%	2.3%	< 1%
19	3	Brugge	10	13-17	66%	25%	2.3%	27%	6%	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%
20	6	Karabakh Agdam	10	13-20	65%	21%	1.7%	11%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
21	3	Marseille	9	15-13	62%	25%	2.8%	30%	8%	2.4%	< 1%	< 1%
22	1	Villarreal	9	7-7	58%	18%	1.1%	28%	8%	2.4%	< 1%	< 1%
23	2	Monaco	9	10-13	56%	18%	1.1%	23%	6%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%
24	4	PSV	9	14-18	54%	17%	1.5%	22%	5%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%
25	3	Frankfurt	9	15-21	52%	17%	1.2%	22%	5%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%
26	2	Leverkusen	9	14-20	52%	16%	1.0%	28%	9%	3.4%	1.2%	< 1%
27	3	Bilbao	8	15-20	42%	11%	< 1%	17%	3.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
28	3	St Gillis	8	9-16	40%	11%	< 1%	15%	3.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
29	1	Olympiakos	8	9-17	36%	8%	< 1%	10%	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
30	2	Slavia Praha	7	5-10	28%	5%	< 1%	8%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
31	0	Benfica	7	10-16	29%	6%	< 1%	13%	3.6%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%
32	2	Bodoe Glimt	6	10-15	22%	3.9%	< 1%	6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
33	1	FC Kobenhavn	6	9-14	16%	1.9%	< 1%	3.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
34	0	Ajax	6	7-18	16%	2.5%	< 1%	3.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
35	2	Paphos	6	6-18	12%	1.4%	< 1%	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
36	1	Kairat	2	3-24	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Expected Requirement

	Top 24		Top 16		Top 8
	Pts	GD	Pts	GD	Pts	GD
1%	10	15-16	13	18-13	18	11-11
5%	10	11-15	13	16-15	17	15-7
25%	9	9-10	12	19-16	16	15-6
50%	9	11-16	12	14-15	16	15-13
75%	8	16-16	11	14-10	15	17-10
95%	8	9-15	11	13-16	14	16-8
99%	7	11-13	10	15-14	14	19-17

 Which countries get extra CL spots

		Score
Country	Probability	Average	Min	Max
ENG	92%	19.08	11.44	25.72
ITA	37%	15.93	7.57	24.86
POL	31%	15.75	7.88	25.38
GER	15%	14.61	6.86	24.21
ESP	14%	14.59	6.94	22.88
FRA	5%	13.7	6.94	21.5
POR	3.9%	12.99	6.2	23.1
UKR	< 1%	10.92	5	19.67
NED	< 1%	9.65	4.25	19.5
CYP	< 1%	10.04	5.25	21.5
GRE	< 1%	8.78	3.5	18.4
CZE	< 1%	9.04	3.6	18.5
DEN	< 1%	8.98	5.13	16.88
TUR	< 1%	8.65	3.6	16.7
BEL	< 1%	7.32	3.1	16.8
SUI	< 1%	6.97	3.4	14.9
ROM	< 1%	5.86	3.25	14.63
IRL	< 1%	7.18	4	16.5

Number of quarterfinalists from ITA; 235 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
Probability	1.1%	9%	26%	35%	22%	6%	< 1%
Chance if	< 1%	2.3%	13%	37%	68%	90%	99%

Number of quarterfinalists from POL; 211 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	24%	47%	25%	4.1%
Chance if	4.0%	24%	61%	91%

Number of semifinalists from ITA; 195 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4
Probability	13%	35%	34%	14%	2.6%
Chance if	6%	20%	46%	76%	95%

Number of teams in last-16 stage from ITA; 194 mbit

n	2	3	4	5	6	7
Probability	< 1%	7%	24%	38%	26%	6%
Chance if	< 1%	1.8%	12%	35%	64%	86%

Number of teams in last-16 stage from POL; 193 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4
Probability	< 1%	9%	34%	42%	14%
Chance if	< 1%	< 1%	11%	40%	75%

Number of quarterfinalists from GER; 155 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4	5
Probability	2.3%	15%	33%	33%	15%	2.9%
Chance if	< 1%	< 1%	3.7%	16%	42%	74%

Number of quarterfinalists from ESP; 145 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
Probability	1.3%	10%	26%	34%	22%	6%	< 1%
Chance if	< 1%	< 1%	1.8%	9%	28%	57%	84%

Number of semifinalists from POL; 142 mbit

n	0	1	2
Probability	66%	30%	3.1%
Chance if	17%	56%	92%

Number of semifinalists from GER; 133 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4
Probability	21%	41%	29%	8%	1.0%
Chance if	1.3%	7%	23%	54%	86%

Number of teams in last-16 stage from GER; 126 mbit

n	2	3	4	5	6	7
Probability	1.8%	12%	32%	37%	15%	1.6%
Chance if	< 1%	< 1%	3.9%	17%	43%	72%