Champions League - Five teams with three wins

Five teams with perfect three wins have practically (>99.9%) secured a place in the knockout stage.  11 points will most certainly suffice for advancement and even nine or ten points are likely to be enough, and a number of teams can secure the advancement next matchday, as detailed below.

Clinching Scenarios

• Inter clinch knockout stage if they draw (or win) against Kairat (99%)
• Paris SG clinch knockout stage if they draw (or win) against Bayern (76%)
• Bayern clinch knockout stage if they draw (or win) against Paris SG and Chelsea draw (or win) against Karabakh Agdam (38%)
• Real Madrid clinch knockout stage if they draw (or win) against Liverpool and Man City and Dortmund do not draw  (35%)
• Man City clinch knockout stage if they win against Dortmund and Paris SG draw against Bayern (14%)
• Dortmund clinch knockout stage if they win against Man City and Barcelona win against Brugge (9%)
• Barcelona clinch knockout stage if they win against Brugge and Kairat draw (or win) against Inter (3%)

Pos	Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Top 24	Top 16	Top 8	R16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
1	9	Arsenal	19	21-5	>99.99%	99.91%	94%	99.08%	76%	51%	32%	19%
2	9	Paris SG	19	18-4	>99.99%	99.42%	90%	98.1%	72%	46%	27%	15%
3	9	Inter	17	21-6	>99.99%	99.35%	79%	95%	59%	29%	14%	6%
4	9	Bayern	17	23-11	99.98%	98.3%	78%	95%	63%	35%	18%	9%
5	9	Real Madrid	17	15-4	99.96%	97.9%	75%	94%	59%	31%	15%	7%
6	7	Man City	17	15-8	99.78%	96.2%	69%	93%	61%	34%	18%	9%
7	6	Liverpool	16	18-8	99.77%	95.8%	65%	93%	66%	41%	25%	14%
8	6	Barcelona	16	18-9	99.57%	94%	61%	91%	58%	32%	16%	8%
9	6	Chelsea	15	14-10	98.8%	87%	40%	79%	40%	17%	7%	3.0%
10	7	Dortmund	14	19-11	98.7%	86%	40%	76%	33%	12%	4.3%	1.6%
11	6	Newcastle	13	16-8	96.7%	78%	27%	72%	32%	13%	5%	2.1%
12	5	Tottenham	13	10-10	93%	66%	16%	57%	19%	6%	1.9%	< 1%
13	3	Atletico	12	15-14	87%	54%	10%	57%	22%	9%	3.3%	1.3%
14	6	Sporting	12	13-13	88%	53%	10%	50%	15%	4.8%	1.4%	< 1%
15	3	Napoli	12	13-14	87%	53%	10%	54%	21%	8%	2.7%	1.00%
16	6	Galatasaray	12	11-16	84%	46%	8%	37%	8%	1.8%	< 1%	< 1%
17	2	Juventus	11	14-12	81%	43%	5%	45%	15%	5.0%	1.5%	< 1%
18	4	Atalanta	11	12-13	81%	44%	8%	49%	18%	7%	2.3%	< 1%
19	3	Brugge	10	13-17	66%	25%	2.3%	27%	6%	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%
20	6	Karabakh Agdam	10	13-20	65%	21%	1.7%	11%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
21	3	Marseille	9	15-13	62%	25%	2.8%	30%	8%	2.4%	< 1%	< 1%
22	1	Villarreal	9	7-7	58%	18%	1.1%	28%	8%	2.4%	< 1%	< 1%
23	2	Monaco	9	10-13	56%	18%	1.1%	23%	6%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%
24	4	PSV	9	14-18	54%	17%	1.5%	22%	5%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%
25	3	Frankfurt	9	15-21	52%	17%	1.2%	22%	5%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%
26	2	Leverkusen	9	14-20	52%	16%	1.0%	28%	9%	3.4%	1.2%	< 1%
27	3	Bilbao	8	15-20	42%	11%	< 1%	17%	3.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
28	3	St Gillis	8	9-16	40%	11%	< 1%	15%	3.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
29	1	Olympiakos	8	9-17	36%	8%	< 1%	10%	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
30	2	Slavia Praha	7	5-10	28%	5%	< 1%	8%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
31	0	Benfica	7	10-16	29%	6%	< 1%	13%	3.6%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%
32	2	Bodoe Glimt	6	10-15	22%	3.9%	< 1%	6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
33	1	FC Kobenhavn	6	9-14	16%	1.9%	< 1%	3.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
34	0	Ajax	6	7-18	16%	2.5%	< 1%	3.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
35	2	Paphos	6	6-18	12%	1.4%	< 1%	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
36	1	Kairat	2	3-24	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Expected Requirement

	Top 24		Top 16		Top 8
	Pts	GD	Pts	GD	Pts	GD
1%	10	15-16	13	18-13	18	11-11
5%	10	11-15	13	16-15	17	15-7
25%	9	9-10	12	19-16	16	15-6
50%	9	11-16	12	14-15	16	15-13
75%	8	16-16	11	14-10	15	17-10
95%	8	9-15	11	13-16	14	16-8
99%	7	11-13	10	15-14	14	19-17

 Which countries get extra CL spots

		Score
Country	Probability	Average	Min	Max
ENG	92%	19.08	11.44	25.72
ITA	37%	15.93	7.57	24.86
POL	31%	15.75	7.88	25.38
GER	15%	14.61	6.86	24.21
ESP	14%	14.59	6.94	22.88
FRA	5%	13.7	6.94	21.5
POR	3.9%	12.99	6.2	23.1
UKR	< 1%	10.92	5	19.67
NED	< 1%	9.65	4.25	19.5
CYP	< 1%	10.04	5.25	21.5
GRE	< 1%	8.78	3.5	18.4
CZE	< 1%	9.04	3.6	18.5
DEN	< 1%	8.98	5.13	16.88
TUR	< 1%	8.65	3.6	16.7
BEL	< 1%	7.32	3.1	16.8
SUI	< 1%	6.97	3.4	14.9
ROM	< 1%	5.86	3.25	14.63
IRL	< 1%	7.18	4	16.5

Number of quarterfinalists from ITA; 235 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
Probability	1.1%	9%	26%	35%	22%	6%	< 1%
Chance if	< 1%	2.3%	13%	37%	68%	90%	99%

Number of quarterfinalists from POL; 211 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	24%	47%	25%	4.1%
Chance if	4.0%	24%	61%	91%

Number of semifinalists from ITA; 195 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4
Probability	13%	35%	34%	14%	2.6%
Chance if	6%	20%	46%	76%	95%

Number of teams in last-16 stage from ITA; 194 mbit

n	2	3	4	5	6	7
Probability	< 1%	7%	24%	38%	26%	6%
Chance if	< 1%	1.8%	12%	35%	64%	86%

Number of teams in last-16 stage from POL; 193 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4
Probability	< 1%	9%	34%	42%	14%
Chance if	< 1%	< 1%	11%	40%	75%

Number of quarterfinalists from GER; 155 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4	5
Probability	2.3%	15%	33%	33%	15%	2.9%
Chance if	< 1%	< 1%	3.7%	16%	42%	74%

Number of quarterfinalists from ESP; 145 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
Probability	1.3%	10%	26%	34%	22%	6%	< 1%
Chance if	< 1%	< 1%	1.8%	9%	28%	57%	84%

Number of semifinalists from POL; 142 mbit

n	0	1	2
Probability	66%	30%	3.1%
Chance if	17%	56%	92%

Number of semifinalists from GER; 133 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4
Probability	21%	41%	29%	8%	1.0%
Chance if	1.3%	7%	23%	54%	86%

Number of teams in last-16 stage from GER; 126 mbit

n	2	3	4	5	6	7
Probability	1.8%	12%	32%	37%	15%	1.6%
Chance if	< 1%	< 1%	3.9%	17%	43%	72%