PL: West Ham travel to Leeds

Coming weekend we have important matches in the relegation race when weak starters West Ham and Wolves play newly promoted teams Leeds and Burnley, respectively.

Hot Teams
Sunderland: 8 points in the last 5 matches, 4.1 more than expected
Man City: 13 points in the last 5 matches, 3.8 more than expected
Man United: 9 points in the last 5 matches, 3.1 more than expected
Arsenal: 13 points in the last 5 matches, 2.9 more than expected
Aston Villa: 11 points in the last 5 matches, 2.5 more than expected

Cold Teams
Forest: 1 point in the last 5 matches, 4.9 less than expected
West Ham: 1 point in the last 5 matches, 4.4 less than expected
Wolves: 2 points in the last 5 matches, 3.7 less than expected
Liverpool: 6 points in the last 5 matches, 3.4 less than expected
Leeds: 4 points in the last 5 matches, 2.1 less than expected

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
19	Arsenal	79.5	+44	< 1%	99.89%	99.74%	99.37%	98.5%	63%	< 1%	< 1%	99.38%
15	Liverpool	74.2	+33	< 1%	99.09%	98.2%	96.4%	93%	23%	< 1%	2.6%	96.4%
16	Man City	70.8	+33	< 1%	96.9%	95%	91%	83%	12%	1.7%	6%	90%
14	Chelsea	62.3	+18	< 1%	76%	66%	53%	37%	1.2%	9%	20%	53%
13	Crystal Palace	59.4	+12	< 1%	60%	49%	36%	22%	< 1%	5%	43%	34%
15	Bournemouth	57.5	+5	< 1%	48%	37%	25%	15%	< 1%	10%	21%	24%
12	Aston Villa	57.2	+6	< 1%	46%	35%	24%	14%	< 1%	7%	16%	42%
9	Newcastle	56.4	+9	< 1%	44%	33%	22%	12%	< 1%	13%	20%	22%
12	Brighton	55.4	+4	< 1%	36%	26%	17%	9%	< 1%	11%	17%	16%
14	Tottenham	54.2	+5	< 1%	31%	22%	14%	7%	< 1%	10%	15%	13%
13	Man United	53.1	-4	1.3%	24%	17%	10%	4.8%	< 1%	8%	13%	9%
11	Everton	51.2	-2	2.2%	17%	11%	6%	2.8%	< 1%	6%	11%	6%
10	Brentford	49.5	-5	3.5%	12%	7%	3.8%	1.6%	< 1%	9%	9%	3.5%
8	Fulham	47.4	-8	7%	7%	4.0%	2.0%	< 1%	< 1%	7%	4.9%	1.9%
8	Leeds	42.1	-19	23%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	5%	< 1%
5	Forest	41.2	-19	28%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.8%	6%
7	Burnley	38.8	-23	41%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	3.0%	< 1%
4	West Ham	36.9	-27	54%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
14	Sunderland	35.8	-33	63%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
2	Wolves	32.8	-30	75%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	4.0%	< 1%

Titles

Team	League	FA Cup	League Cup	Europe
Arsenal	63%	16%	26%	19%
Liverpool	23%	23%	22%	13%
Man City	12%	11%	19%	9%
Chelsea	1.2%	2.8%	7%	2.9%
Crystal Palace	< 1%	3.4%	3.2%	47%
Bournemouth	< 1%	3.1%
Aston Villa	< 1%	5%		26%
Newcastle	< 1%	3.4%	8%	1.9%
Brighton	< 1%	1.2%	2.1%
Tottenham	< 1%	1.7%	2.1%	< 1%
Man United	< 1%	1.3%
Everton	< 1%	2.3%
Brentford	< 1%	3.6%	5%
Fulham	< 1%	1.1%	4.5%
Leeds	< 1%	4.4%
Forest	< 1%	1.3%		6%
Burnley		2.8%
West Ham		< 1%
Sunderland		< 1%
Wolves		4.0%	< 1%

Important matches for avoiding relegation
Leeds vs West Ham (3.4%)	Home Win (51%)	Draw (23%)	Away Win (26%)
West Ham	40%	47%	58%
Leeds	83%	74%	68%
Wolves vs Burnley (3.3%)	Home Win (48%)	Draw (23%)	Away Win (28%)
Burnley	52%	59%	70%
Wolves	31%	21%	17%