CONCACAF after matchday 4

 

Group A
Guatemala clinch qualifications if they win against Suriname and Panama (19%)

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	Top-2	At least Playoff	Group Winner	World Cup
4	6	Panama	10.2	+4	90%	76%	64%	71%
4	5	Guatemala	8.3	+1	55%	30%	23%	25%
4	6	Suriname	8.2	0	52%	27%	12%	15%
4	3	El Salvador	4.5	-4	3.0%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group B
Jamaica clinch qualifications if they win against Curaçao (74%)
Curaçao clinch qualifications if they win against Bermuda and Jamaica (5%)

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	Top-2	At least Playoff	Group Winner	World Cup
4	9	Jamaica	13	+10	95.8%	95.7%	86%	90%
4	8	Curaçao	10.2	+2	67%	58%	12%	19%
4	5	Trinidad and Tobago	8.6	+2	37%	31%	2.4%	8%
4	0	Bermuda	1.5	-14

Group C
Costa Rica clinch qualifications if they win against Haiti and Honduras (23%)
Honduras clinch qualifications if they win against Nicaragua and draw (or win) against Costa Rica (19%)

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	Top-2	At least Playoff	Group Winner	World Cup
4	8	Honduras	10.4	+4	86%	78%	48%	60%
4	6	Costa Rica	9.4	+4	69%	64%	37%	50%
4	5	Haiti	8.6	+1	45%	38%	15%	24%
4	1	Nicaragua	2.7	-10	< 1%