England secure place in world cup finals

England has clinched qualifications. Switzerland, France, Spain, Portugal, Netherlands, Austria, and Belgium are very close (>99%) to win their groups, while groups A, C and I are still more or less open.

Group A
Germany clinch qualifications if they draw (or win) against Luxembourg and win against Slovakia (71%)
Slovakia clinch qualifications if they draw (or win) against Northern Ireland and win against Germany (8%)

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	At least Playoff	Top-2	Group Winner	World Cup
4	9	Germany	14	+9	100%	99.6%	89%	97.2%
4	9	Slovakia	11.6	+2	76%	76%	11%	22%
4	6	Northern Ireland	8.7	+1	99.98%	24%	< 1%	6%
4	0	Luxembourg	1.1	-12

Group B
Switzerland clinch qualifications if they draw (or win) against Kosovo (78%)
Kosovo clinch playoff if they draw (or win) against Slovenia and Switzerland draw (or win) against Kosovo (25%)

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	At least Playoff	Top-2	Group Winner	World Cup
4	10	Switzerland	13.8	+11	100%	100%	97.7%	99.1%
4	7	Kosovo	8.5	-3	73%	73%	2.3%	4.5%
4	3	Slovenia	6.2	-2	22%	22%	< 1%	2.9%
4	1	Sweden	3.6	-5	100%	4.1%	< 1%	20%

Group C
Denmark clinch qualifications if they win against Belarus and draw (or win) against Scotland (53%)
Scotland clinch qualifications if they draw (or win) against Greece and win against Denmark (17%)
Scotland clinch playoff if Denmark win against Belarus and Denmark draw (or win) against Scotland (53%)
Denmark clinch playoff if Scotland draw (or win) against Greece and Scotland win against Denmark (17%)

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	At least Playoff	Top-2	Group Winner	World Cup
4	10	Denmark	14	+14	100%	100%	79%	92%
4	10	Scotland	12.3	+4	100%	100%	21%	37%
4	3	Greece	7	-1
4	0	Belarus	0.9	-17

Group D
France clinch qualifications if they draw (or win) against Azerbaijan and against Ukraine (87%)
Ukraine clinch playoff if they win against Iceland and France win against Ukraine (55%)

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	At least Playoff	Top-2	Group Winner	World Cup
4	10	France	15.1	+11	100%	>99.99%	98.0%	99.7%
4	7	Ukraine	9.8	+1	84%	84%	1.9%	48%
4	4	Iceland	6.1	+1	16%	16%	< 1%	< 1%
4	1	Azerbaijan	2.3	-12

Group E
Spain clinch qualifications if they draw (or win) against Turkey (95%)
Turkey clinch playoff if they draw (or win) against Bulgaria and Spain draw (or win) against Turkey (87%)

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	At least Playoff	Top-2	Group Winner	World Cup
4	12	Spain	17.1	+19	100%	100%	99.1%	99.91%
4	9	Turkey	11.7	+2	99.8%	99.8%	< 1%	53%
4	3	Georgia	5.1	-4	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
4	0	Bulgaria	1.4	-17

Group F
Portugal clinch qualifications if they win against Armenia (93%)
Hungary clinch playoff if they win against Ireland and Portugal win against Armenia (63%)

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	At least Playoff	Top-2	Group Winner	World Cup
4	10	Portugal	15.1	+12	100%	100%	99.7%	99.93%
4	5	Hungary	9.4	+4	93%	93%	< 1%	25%
4	4	Ireland	5.2	-4	7%	7%	< 1%	< 1%
4	3	Armenia	3.7	-12	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group G
Netherlands clinch qualifications if they draw (or win) against Poland (76%)

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	At least Playoff	Top-2	Group Winner	World Cup
6	16	Netherlands	20.7	+24	100%	100%	99.1%	99.8%
6	13	Poland	16.3	+7	99.9%	99.9%	< 1%	25%
7	10	Finland	12.4	-3	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
7	3	Lithuania	3.1	-9
6	2	Malta	2.9	-19

Group H
Austria clinch qualifications if they draw (or win) against Cyprus and against Bosnia and Herzegovina (90%)
Bosnia and Herzegovina clinch qualifications if they win against Austria and Romania (1%)
Bosnia and Herzegovina clinch playoff if they win against Romania and Austria win against Bosnia and Herzegovina (21%)

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	At least Playoff	Top-2	Group Winner	World Cup
6	15	Austria	20.3	+21	99.9%	99.9%	98.2%	99.2%
6	10	Romania	14.8	+11	100%	71%	< 1%	14%
6	13	Bosnia and Herzegovina	14.2	+5	29%	29%	1.6%	2.1%
7	8	Cyprus	8.3	-0
7	0	San Marino	0	-36	19%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group I
Norway clinch qualifications if they draw (or win) against Italy (37%)

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	At least Playoff	Top-2	Group Winner	World Cup
6	18	Norway	21.4	+28	100%	100%	93%	96.5%
6	15	Italy	19.7	+14	100%	100%	7%	74%
7	9	Israel	11.4	-2	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
7	4	Estonia	4.2	-13
6	1	Moldova	1.7	-26	79%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group J
Belgium clinch qualifications if they win against Liechtenstein (99%)

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	At least Playoff	Top-2	Group Winner	World Cup
6	14	Belgium	19.3	+22	100%	100%	99.9%	99.95%
6	10	Wales	14.9	+8	100%	66%	< 1%	33%
7	13	North Macedonia	13.7	+8	100%	34%	< 1%	8%
7	7	Kazakhstan	7.5	-6
6	0	Liechtenstein	0.1	-32

Group K
Albania clinch playoff if they win against Andorra and England win against Serbia (58%)

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	At least Playoff	Top-2	Group Winner	World Cup
6	18	England	22.5	+21	100%	100%	100%	100%
6	11	Albania	14.2	+4	74%	74%	< 1%	4.5%
6	10	Serbia	13.4	+2	27%	26%	< 1%	10%
7	5	Latvia	5.1	-12
7	1	Andorra	1.3	-14

Group L

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	At least Playoff	Top-2	Group Winner	World Cup
6	16	Croatia	21.1	+24	100%	100%	>99.99%	>99.99%
7	13	Czechia	15.9	+9	100%	99.91%	< 1%	26%
7	12	Faroe Islands	12.1	0	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
6	6	Montenegro	9.1	-8
6	0	Gibraltar	0.5	-25

Group winner advance to the World Cup.
The 12 Runner-ups together with four best group winners
from Nations League play a playoff for the remaining four slots

Nations League Ranking

Group	Team	At least Playoff	NL Slot	Top-2	Group Winner	World Cup
E	Spain	100%	< 1%	100%	99.1%	99.91%
A	Germany	100%	< 1%	99.6%	89%	97.2%
F	Portugal	100%	< 1%	100%	99.7%	99.93%
D	France	100%	< 1%	>99.99%	98.0%	99.7%
K	England	100%	< 1%	100%	100%	100%
I	Norway	100%	< 1%	100%	93%	96.5%
J	Wales	100%	34%	66%	< 1%	33%
L	Czechia	100%	< 1%	99.91%	< 1%	26%
H	Romania	100%	29%	71%	< 1%	14%
B	Sweden	100%	95.9%	4.1%	< 1%	20%
J	North Macedonia	100%	66%	34%	< 1%	8%
A	Northern Ireland	99.98%	76%	24%	< 1%	6%
I	Moldova	79%	79%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
H	San Marino	19%	19%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
I	Italy	100%	< 1%	100%	7%	74%
G	Netherlands	100%	< 1%	100%	99.1%	99.8%
C	Denmark	100%	< 1%	100%	79%	92%
L	Croatia	100%	< 1%	100%	>99.99%	>99.99%
C	Scotland	100%	< 1%	100%	21%	37%
K	Serbia	27%	< 1%	26%	< 1%	10%
F	Hungary	93%	< 1%	93%	< 1%	25%
J	Belgium	100%	< 1%	100%	99.9%	99.95%
G	Poland	99.9%	< 1%	99.9%	< 1%	25%
I	Israel	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Playoff seed statistics

Group	Team	Pot 4	Pot 3	Pot 2	Pot 1	Group Winner
E	Spain	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	99.1%
D	France	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.0%	98.0%
F	Portugal	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	99.7%
G	Netherlands	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	99.1%
J	Belgium	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	99.9%
L	Croatia	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	>99.99%
I	Italy	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	93%	7%
A	Germany	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	11%	89%
B	Switzerland	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.3%	97.7%
C	Denmark	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	21%	79%
H	Austria	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.7%	98.2%
E	Turkey	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	98.7%	< 1%
D	Ukraine	< 1%	< 1%	3.0%	79%	1.9%
J	Wales	34%	< 1%	18%	48%	< 1%
I	Norway	< 1%	< 1%	1.4%	6%	93%
B	Sweden	95.9%	< 1%	2.8%	1.3%	< 1%
K	Serbia	< 1%	< 1%	18%	8%	< 1%
G	Poland	< 1%	< 1%	76%	23%	< 1%
L	Czechia	< 1%	< 1%	96.6%	2.5%	< 1%
F	Hungary	< 1%	7%	85%	< 1%	< 1%
A	Slovakia	< 1%	18%	48%	< 1%	11%
C	Scotland	< 1%	42%	37%	< 1%	21%
B	Slovenia	< 1%	19%	3.0%	< 1%	< 1%
H	Romania	29%	63%	7%	< 1%	< 1%
F	Ireland	< 1%	6%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%
J	North Macedonia	66%	32%	2.4%	< 1%	< 1%
K	Albania	< 1%	73%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
E	Georgia	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
G	Finland	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
A	Northern Ireland	76%	23%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
H	Bosnia and Herzegovina	< 1%	27%	< 1%	< 1%	1.6%
D	Iceland	< 1%	16%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
I	Israel	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
B	Kosovo	< 1%	71%	< 1%	< 1%	2.3%
F	Armenia	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
H	San Marino	19%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%