CONCACAF - Matchday 3

Below are the probabilities prior to match day 3. 

The group winners advance to the World Cup finals and the two best  runner-ups will play intercontinental playoff.


Group A

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	Top-2	At least Playoff	Group Winner	World Cup
2	2	Panama	10.9	+6	90%	84%	69%	77%
2	4	Suriname	7.7	-3	40%	29%	10%	14%
2	1	Guatemala	7.3	0	45%	32%	13%	20%
2	3	El Salvador	6.5	-4	26%	17%	8%	10%

Group B

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	Top-2	At least Playoff	Group Winner	World Cup
2	6	Jamaica	14.5	+11	98.7%	98.4%	90%	93%
2	4	Curaçao	8.6	-1	56%	42%	7%	13%
2	1	Trinidad and Tobago	7.7	-0	43%	31%	2.6%	9%
2	0	Bermuda	2.6	-11	2.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group C

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	Top-2	At least Playoff	Group Winner	World Cup
2	4	Honduras	9.6	+2	70%	60%	39%	47%
2	2	Costa Rica	9.2	+3	69%	60%	38%	49%
2	2	Haiti	8.2	+1	54%	43%	21%	29%
2	1	Nicaragua	4.2	-6	7%	3.8%	1.5%	2.0%